【摘要】：為增強海上交通運輸安全,運用灰色系統(tǒng)理論中傳統(tǒng)的灰色關聯(lián)理論和加權灰色關聯(lián)原理,分別對遼寧、天津和寧波水域2007—2013年的船舶交通事故進行分析,尋求船舶交通事故的主要致因。將傳統(tǒng)灰色關聯(lián)結果與加權灰色關聯(lián)結果進行對比,驗證加權灰色關聯(lián)理論具有更好的準確性和層次性。建立3處水域船舶交通事故總數(shù)的預測模型,對不同水域未來的交通形勢進行預測;將預測模型結果與實際數(shù)據(jù)相比較,得到其預測精度,以期獲得該預測模型短期預測精度的大致范圍,從而為海上交通事故的預防提供指導和借鑒。
[Abstract]:In order to enhance the safety of maritime transportation, the ship traffic accidents in Liaoning, Tianjin and Ningbo waters from 2007 to 2013 were analyzed by using the traditional grey relation theory and weighted grey correlation theory in the grey system theory. To seek the main causes of ship traffic accidents. By comparing the traditional grey correlation results with the weighted grey correlation results, it is proved that the weighted grey correlation theory is more accurate and hierarchical. The prediction model of the total number of ship traffic accidents in three water areas is established to predict the traffic situation in different water areas in the future. By comparing the results of the prediction model with the actual data, the prediction accuracy is obtained, in order to obtain the approximate range of the short-term prediction accuracy of the prediction model, thus providing guidance and reference for the prevention of maritime traffic accidents.
【作者單位】： 大連海事大學航海學院;國家海洋局東海分局;
【基金】：中央高�；究蒲袠I(yè)務費專項資金(3132015007) 遼寧省自然科學基金(2014025008) 馬六甲和新加坡海峽超大型船舶航行風險分析及對策研究項目(01831508) 東海至宮古海峽航海保障研究項目(80716004)
【分類號】：U698.6

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