【摘要】：邊坡變形監(jiān)測與穩(wěn)定性預(yù)測預(yù)報研究是巖石力學(xué)領(lǐng)域的熱點研究問題，并取得了豐碩的研究成果，但隨著GPS技術(shù)和我國北斗系統(tǒng)的日臻完善，對于邊坡變形監(jiān)測與預(yù)測預(yù)報智能化集成的研究成果略顯不足。深入開展無人值守的露天礦山邊坡變形實時、連續(xù)監(jiān)測與穩(wěn)定性智能預(yù)測預(yù)報研究對于露天礦山邊坡安全管理和包括北斗系統(tǒng)在內(nèi)的衛(wèi)星導(dǎo)航技術(shù)在邊坡監(jiān)測與預(yù)測預(yù)報領(lǐng)域的推廣應(yīng)用具有非常重大的理論意義和實用價值。 課題以“基于GPS的礦區(qū)重點區(qū)域?qū)崟r變形監(jiān)測預(yù)警系統(tǒng)”項目為依托，針對金堆城露天礦邊幫斷裂帶規(guī)模巨大、內(nèi)部結(jié)構(gòu)復(fù)雜、巖性軟弱的地質(zhì)特點，從安全監(jiān)測的時效性出發(fā)，通過數(shù)值分析對邊坡監(jiān)測點位進行了優(yōu)化、通過信號處理和理論分析建立了預(yù)測預(yù)報模型，并運用空間內(nèi)插加密算法，，實現(xiàn)了變形監(jiān)測和預(yù)測預(yù)報的智能化集成。取得了以下主要成果： （1）運用數(shù)值分析確定了金堆成露天礦山重點邊坡擬選用的監(jiān)測點位。并利用Leica GNSS QC軟件對監(jiān)測點數(shù)據(jù)的周跳、多路徑、數(shù)據(jù)完整性以及數(shù)據(jù)連續(xù)性進行分析，優(yōu)化了點位布置，提出了一種新的監(jiān)測點布設(shè)的原則。 （2）引入了小波閾值收縮法對數(shù)據(jù)進行降噪處理。在對比分析GM（1,1）等時距和非等時距模型位移預(yù)測精度的基礎(chǔ)上，建立了改進的灰色-變維分形模型，并采用Matlab數(shù)值仿真模擬軟件對該模型進行驗證分析，對滑坡體的水平和垂直以及整體位移進行求解，得到該模型對GPS數(shù)據(jù)具有很好的適應(yīng)性，提高了預(yù)測精度。 （3）運用空間內(nèi)插加密算法，通過建立實時動態(tài)的真三維維礦山安全狀況演變模型，再現(xiàn)與仿真礦山開采活動及給安全、環(huán)境帶來的相關(guān)影響；基于歷史監(jiān)測數(shù)據(jù)和時間序列模型，及時準確預(yù)測潛在的地質(zhì)災(zāi)害發(fā)生地點、時間和影響范圍；實時動態(tài)發(fā)布礦山安全和地質(zhì)災(zāi)害等可視化信息和短信預(yù)警。實現(xiàn)了“監(jiān)測”、“評價”、“預(yù)測”、“報警”、“防盜”五為一體的智能化集成，實現(xiàn)了對邊坡的無人化、可視化實時在線監(jiān)測與預(yù)測預(yù)報。 課題成果在金鉬股份金堆城露天礦一年多的生產(chǎn)運行情況表明，該系統(tǒng)實現(xiàn)了全方位、全天候、立體化地對礦區(qū)地表形變的相關(guān)信息的無人化實時采集、快速安全傳輸、自動解算處理、監(jiān)測信息處理和可視化預(yù)警，給礦山邊坡安全管理提供了一個智能化輔助決策支持，對GPS和北斗衛(wèi)星導(dǎo)航系統(tǒng)在邊坡監(jiān)測中的推廣具有借鑒價值。
[Abstract]:The research of slope deformation monitoring and stability prediction is a hot research problem in the field of rock mechanics, and a lot of research results have been obtained. However, with the development of GPS technology and Beidou system in China, The research on the intelligent integration of slope deformation monitoring and prediction is a little insufficient. Carry out the real-time deformation of unattended open pit slope in depth, The research on continuous monitoring and intelligent prediction and prediction of stability has very important theory for slope safety management and satellite navigation technology including Beidou system in the field of slope monitoring and prediction. Meaning and practical value Based on the project of "real-time deformation monitoring and warning system in key mining area based on GPS", the paper aims at the geological characteristics of the side fault zone of Jinduicheng opencast mine with large scale, complex internal structure and weak lithology. In view of the timeliness of safety monitoring, the slope monitoring points are optimized by numerical analysis, the prediction model is established by signal processing and theoretical analysis, and the spatial interpolation encryption algorithm is used. The intelligent integration of deformation monitoring and prediction is realized. The main achievements are as follows: (1) using numerical analysis to determine the monitoring points to be selected for the key slope of Jinduicheng opencast mine. The cycle slip, multipath, data integrity and data continuity of monitoring data are analyzed by using Leica GNSS QC software, and the point position arrangement is optimized, and a new principle of monitoring point layout is put forward. (2) the wavelet threshold shrinkage method is introduced to reduce the noise of the data. On the basis of comparing and analyzing the displacement prediction accuracy of GM (1 / 1) equal time interval model and non-equal time interval model, an improved grey variable dimension fractal model is established, and the model is verified and analyzed by Matlab numerical simulation software. By solving the horizontal, vertical and global displacement of the landslide, it is found that the model has a good adaptability to the GPS data and improves the prediction accuracy. (3) by using the spatial interpolation encryption algorithm, through the establishment of the real time dynamic evolution model of the safety situation of the true 3D mine, the paper reproduces and simulates the mining activities of the mine and the related influence to the safety and environment; Based on the historical monitoring data and time series model, the location, time and influence range of potential geological hazards are predicted in time and accurately, and visual information and short message warning such as mine safety and geological hazards are published dynamically and in real time. The intelligent integration of "monitoring", "evaluation", "prediction", "alarm" and "anti-theft" is realized, and the real-time on-line monitoring and prediction of slope is realized. The operation of the project in Jinduicheng opencast mine for more than a year shows that the system has realized the real-time collection of the information related to the surface deformation of the mining area in an all-round, all-weather and three-dimensional manner, and the rapid and safe transmission. Automatic calculation processing monitoring information processing and visual early warning provide an intelligent auxiliary decision support for slope safety management. It has reference value for the popularization of GPS and Beidou satellite navigation system in slope monitoring.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：武漢理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TD76

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