【摘要】：中密度纖維板在滿足工農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)和人民生活需要等方面起著重要的作用。近年來，每年在中國都會有大量的木業(yè)加工廠建立，但是伴隨著大量的生產(chǎn)線的出現(xiàn)，因發(fā)生火災(zāi)而遭受嚴重的損失也日益增加，其中中密度纖維板主生產(chǎn)線的物料輸送過程中出現(xiàn)火星而引起火災(zāi)的概率最大，一旦發(fā)生火災(zāi)，木纖維的爆炸式燃燒使得火勢蔓延發(fā)展極快，難以撲滅。事故樹分析模型是針對火災(zāi)事故最重要的安全評價模型之一，并廣泛應(yīng)用于各種領(lǐng)域的事故評價中。事故樹特有的分析結(jié)構(gòu)可以對火災(zāi)誘發(fā)原因做出總體至部分按樹形結(jié)構(gòu)逐步地細化，能有效地對火災(zāi)現(xiàn)場進行監(jiān)控和評價。然而火災(zāi)事故的發(fā)生原因、發(fā)生形式、發(fā)生環(huán)境、可燃物種類及火源分布等諸多因素是不確定的，傳統(tǒng)事故樹分析很難表達出火災(zāi)起因中的不確定性，這些因素制約了事故樹分析模型在火災(zāi)評價中的發(fā)展。 本文結(jié)合事故樹分析評價模型與證據(jù)理論，，在事故樹的定量分析階段中運用證據(jù)理論原理來處理事故調(diào)查中的不確定信息，利用貝葉斯近似法來優(yōu)化原有的證據(jù)融合算法，實現(xiàn)融合不同領(lǐng)域?qū)＜以\斷的信息。此方法應(yīng)用于東f木業(yè)中纖板生產(chǎn)線防火系統(tǒng)中，提出了更科學(xué)更有效率的防火安全制度和安全操作規(guī)程，成功提升了該系統(tǒng)火災(zāi)防護的能力。 在本文的結(jié)尾處對全文的研究工作進行了總結(jié)，對未來的研究方向提出了工作重心，并且指出了本文所編制的防火事故樹有待改進的地方，和證據(jù)理論算法的深入研究的必要性。最后本文對未來在證據(jù)理論算法和事故樹定量分析結(jié)合的研究方向進行了展望。
[Abstract]:MDF plays an important role in meeting the needs of agriculture and industry. In recent years, a large number of wood processing plants have been set up in China every year, but with the emergence of a large number of production lines, the fire has suffered serious losses. The probability of fire caused by Mars in the main production line of MDF is the greatest. Once the fire occurs, the explosion of wood fiber makes the fire spread rapidly and it is difficult to extinguish. Accident tree analysis model is one of the most important safety assessment models for fire accident and is widely used in various fields of accident evaluation. The unique analysis structure of the accident tree can make the whole to part of the cause of the fire induced by the tree structure gradually detailed, and can effectively monitor and evaluate the fire site. However, many factors, such as the cause, the form, the environment, the type of fuel and the distribution of fire source, are uncertain. The traditional analysis of accident tree is difficult to express the uncertainty in the cause of fire. These factors restrict the development of accident tree analysis model in fire assessment. Combined with accident tree analysis and evaluation model and evidence theory, this paper applies evidence theory principle to deal with uncertain information in accident investigation in the stage of quantitative analysis of accident tree, and optimizes the original evidence fusion algorithm by using Bayesian approximation method. The information of expert diagnosis in different fields can be fused. This method has been applied to fire prevention system of medium fiber board production line in Dongfen wood industry. A more scientific and efficient fire prevention safety system and safety operation rules have been put forward, and the fire protection capability of this system has been improved successfully. At the end of this paper, the research work of this paper is summarized, the focus of the future research is put forward, and the improvement of the fire prevention tree is pointed out. And the necessity of further research on evidence theory algorithm. Finally, the research direction of combining evidence theory algorithm and accident tree quantitative analysis in the future is prospected.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：武漢科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：TS68;X928.7

【參考文獻】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 唐立建;黃德鏞;;基于動態(tài)貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)分析法的炸藥庫爆炸事故分析[J];安全與環(huán)境學(xué)報;2010年06期

2 倪國強,梁好臣;基于Dempster-Shafer證據(jù)理論的數(shù)據(jù)融合技術(shù)研究[J];北京理工大學(xué)學(xué)報;2001年05期

3 李勇;王德功;楊佐龍;;模糊神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)與證據(jù)理論的飛機目標(biāo)敵我識別[J];吉林大學(xué)學(xué)報(信息科學(xué)版);2012年01期

4 章洪池;;淺論纖維干燥系統(tǒng)火災(zāi)之消防[J];中國人造板;2007年01期

5 丁丹;;中密度纖維板廠工藝設(shè)計中的防火設(shè)計[J];中國人造板;2012年04期

6 蔡明;張兆寧;王莉莉;;基于模糊事故樹分析法的飛行碰撞風(fēng)險研究[J];航空計算技術(shù);2011年03期

7 李創(chuàng)起;景國勛;張永強;;基于事故樹方法的人機系統(tǒng)可靠性分析[J];機電工程;2011年12期

8 李岳峰，劉大有;證據(jù)理論中的近似計算方法[J];吉林大學(xué)自然科學(xué)學(xué)報;1995年01期

9 楊波;徐姣;倪曉陽;;高速公路隧道交通安全事故樹分析[J];安全與環(huán)境工程;2011年03期

10 劉培興;;中密度纖維板廠配電設(shè)計及電氣火災(zāi)預(yù)防[J];林產(chǎn)工業(yè);2010年03期

本文編號：2341308