【摘要】：伴隨著人類社會(huì)發(fā)展,自然災(zāi)害對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)造成的影響越發(fā)嚴(yán)重。從災(zāi)害應(yīng)對(duì)的實(shí)踐出發(fā)和政治經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)理論出發(fā),自然災(zāi)害應(yīng)對(duì)機(jī)制的選擇應(yīng)該注意哪些問(wèn)題?在中國(guó),到底何種災(zāi)害應(yīng)對(duì)機(jī)制才是更有效的?中國(guó)的自然災(zāi)害應(yīng)對(duì)長(zhǎng)期處于政府主導(dǎo),市場(chǎng)缺位的狀態(tài),到了近現(xiàn)代社會(huì),災(zāi)害應(yīng)對(duì)的市場(chǎng)機(jī)制才逐漸發(fā)展起來(lái)。政府救助和市場(chǎng)機(jī)制在災(zāi)害應(yīng)對(duì)中的地位、作用卻取決于政府、居民和企業(yè)之間的利益關(guān)系變化,經(jīng)濟(jì)主體應(yīng)對(duì)災(zāi)害的行為背后是不同制度背景下的利益激勵(lì)問(wèn)題。從這一利益關(guān)系角度出發(fā),政府、居民和企業(yè)表現(xiàn)出差異化的行為選擇,最終導(dǎo)致不同應(yīng)對(duì)機(jī)制呈現(xiàn)出差異化的效果。因此,從政治經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)理論角度上來(lái)看,在考慮中國(guó)災(zāi)害應(yīng)對(duì)機(jī)制選擇時(shí),必須要分析政府、居民和企業(yè)在這一機(jī)制中的利益關(guān)系,從利益激勵(lì)的角度出發(fā),通過(guò)政府與市場(chǎng)相結(jié)合完善中國(guó)的災(zāi)害應(yīng)對(duì)制度體系。從中國(guó)災(zāi)害應(yīng)對(duì)的實(shí)踐出發(fā),首先,本文以汶川地震為例,利用四川省181個(gè)縣級(jí)行政面板2003-2013年面板數(shù)據(jù),運(yùn)用雙重差分和PSM-DID方法研究了汶川地震后國(guó)家救助對(duì)災(zāi)區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展和居民收入的影響。結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn),政府災(zāi)害救助可以通過(guò)提高受災(zāi)地固定資產(chǎn)投資、工業(yè)化、城市化等途徑促進(jìn)區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)短期增長(zhǎng),但在人力資本積累、制度環(huán)境建設(shè)等方面表現(xiàn)乏力。特別是,國(guó)家救助的正向作用會(huì)伴隨著財(cái)政支持政策的結(jié)束而快速消失,國(guó)家災(zāi)害救助缺乏“造血功能”。關(guān)于市場(chǎng)化機(jī)制的作用,本文基于中國(guó)普遍存在的農(nóng)業(yè)災(zāi)害,通過(guò)構(gòu)造省級(jí)市場(chǎng)化指數(shù),利用HP濾波方法分析了市場(chǎng)化水平不斷提升的背景下,農(nóng)業(yè)災(zāi)害對(duì)農(nóng)村居民收入與消費(fèi)波動(dòng)的影響,結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)市場(chǎng)化水平的提升能夠通過(guò)改善農(nóng)民收入等途徑平滑農(nóng)業(yè)災(zāi)害帶來(lái)的消費(fèi)波動(dòng),有助于農(nóng)村居民消費(fèi)水平提升。本文通過(guò)理論分析提出完善中國(guó)災(zāi)害應(yīng)對(duì)機(jī)制的著眼點(diǎn)在于通過(guò)激勵(lì)機(jī)制實(shí)現(xiàn)行為主體災(zāi)害應(yīng)對(duì)中的利益協(xié)調(diào)。結(jié)合中國(guó)當(dāng)前災(zāi)害應(yīng)對(duì)實(shí)踐,本文分別實(shí)證研究了政府主導(dǎo)的國(guó)家救助和市場(chǎng)機(jī)制的作用。從災(zāi)害損失最小化的目標(biāo)出發(fā),本文能夠給出的政策指引在于:在繼續(xù)加大國(guó)家災(zāi)害救助體系建設(shè)的同時(shí),要注重救助方式的轉(zhuǎn)變及其對(duì)受助地長(zhǎng)期發(fā)展的影響,將國(guó)家救助與市場(chǎng)機(jī)制相結(jié)合,形成政府與市場(chǎng)相互支撐的自然災(zāi)害應(yīng)對(duì)機(jī)制。
[Abstract]:With the development of human society, the impact of natural disasters on economic and social is becoming more and more serious. Starting from the practice of disaster response and the theory of political economy, what problems should be paid attention to in the selection of natural disaster response mechanism? What kind of disaster response mechanism is more effective in China? China's natural disaster response has been dominated by the government for a long time, and the market mechanism of disaster response has developed gradually in modern society. The role of government rescue and market mechanism in disaster response depends on the change of interest relationship among government, residents and enterprises. From the angle of this interest relationship, the government, residents and enterprises show different behavior choices, which leads to different coping mechanisms showing different effects. Therefore, from the point of view of political economics theory, when considering the choice of disaster response mechanism in China, we must analyze the interests of the government, residents and enterprises in this mechanism, and start from the angle of interest incentive. Perfect China's disaster response system through the combination of government and market. Based on the practice of disaster response in China, first of all, taking Wenchuan earthquake as an example, this paper makes use of the panel data of 181 county administrative panels in Sichuan Province from 2003 to 2013. The double difference method and PSM-DID method are used to study the effects of state aid on the economic development and residents' income in the disaster areas after the Wenchuan earthquake. The results show that government disaster relief can promote the short-term growth of regional economy by increasing fixed assets investment, industrialization, urbanization and so on, but it is weak in the aspects of human capital accumulation and institutional environment construction. In particular, the positive role of state aid will disappear rapidly with the end of the financial support policy, and the national disaster relief lacks the "hematopoietic function". On the role of marketization mechanism, based on the widespread agricultural disasters in China, by constructing provincial marketization index and using HP filtering method, this paper analyzes the background of the increasing level of marketization. The effect of agricultural disasters on the fluctuation of rural residents' income and consumption is found out that the improvement of market-oriented level can smooth the fluctuation of consumption brought by agricultural disasters through improving farmers' income and help to improve the consumption level of rural residents. Through theoretical analysis, this paper puts forward that the focus of perfecting the disaster response mechanism in China is to realize the coordination of interests in the disaster response of the behavioral subject through the incentive mechanism. Combined with China's current disaster response practice, this paper empirically studies the role of government-led national rescue and market mechanism. Starting from the goal of minimizing disaster losses, the policy guidance that this paper can give lies in: while continuing to increase the construction of national disaster relief system, we should pay attention to the transformation of relief mode and its impact on the long-term development of the recipient land. Combining the state rescue with the market mechanism, the government and the market support each other in natural disaster response mechanism.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西北大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：X43

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