【摘要】：國內(nèi)外關(guān)于某一通航水域通航環(huán)境安全度評價和研究這一內(nèi)容并不算新鮮的課題,不少專家學者在這方面做了大量的研究并取得一些頗有成效和價值的科研成果。其中最為廣泛的是模糊綜合評價方法和層次分析方法,為難以定性和定量計算研究的問題和指標的選取提供了很好的思路,但仍然存在較大的人為影響因素,評價解決難以說明問題。本文以一種工程和安全領(lǐng)域已經(jīng)較為成熟并應用廣泛的評價方法,為找出福姜沙水道影響通航安全存在的風險和問題,充分考慮了自然、航道、交通環(huán)境因素中的影響因子,建立了福姜沙水域的通航環(huán)境評價指標體系并進行了安全度評價。通過本文的分析研究,相對于傳統(tǒng)的評價方法,大為減少了主觀因素對評價結(jié)果的影響,提高了評價結(jié)果的可信程度。 本文的研究內(nèi)容從傳統(tǒng)系統(tǒng)工程學中通航環(huán)境的角度出發(fā),通過查閱大量文獻和研究結(jié)果,結(jié)合專家意見,識別影響福姜沙水道通航安全的影響因素,選取并篩選通航環(huán)境評價指標,建立具有福姜沙水道特點的通航環(huán)境安全評價體系；在對比目前使用的安全度評價方法之后,確定采用目前工程和安全領(lǐng)域使用較多的可拓物元理論進行通航環(huán)境安全度評價研究,得出了評價結(jié)果和結(jié)論；通過評價的結(jié)論,針對性的找出福姜沙水道存在的通航風險和主要問題,并提出相應改善安全程度的對策和建議。 本文建立的基于可拓物元理論的福姜沙水道通航環(huán)境安全度評價模型及其應用在國內(nèi)通航水域安全度評價領(lǐng)域尚屬首次,豐富了港口通航環(huán)境的安全評價理論體系。該方法簡單易行,操作性強,得出的關(guān)聯(lián)度數(shù)值較以往傳統(tǒng)的隸屬度函數(shù)有更為深刻的數(shù)學內(nèi)涵,是通航水域安全度評價領(lǐng)域值得繼續(xù)深入研究的好方法。 本文將基于可拓物元理論的通航環(huán)境評價模型應用于福姜沙水道,針對水道存在的通航風險和主要問題提出的安全對策和建議具有重要的實踐價值,對維護福姜沙水道良好的通航環(huán)境秩序,保障福姜沙水道碼頭安全管理、船舶交通流組織,促進張家港港口的可持續(xù)發(fā)展具有重要意義。
[Abstract]:The evaluation and research of navigable environment safety in a certain navigable waters at home and abroad is not a new subject. Many experts and scholars have done a lot of research in this field and obtained some effective and valuable scientific research results. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method are the most widely used methods, which provide a good way of thinking for the selection of the problems and indexes which are difficult to be studied qualitatively and quantitatively, but there are still a large number of artificial influencing factors. Evaluation solves problems that are difficult to explain. In order to find out the risks and problems existing in the navigation safety of Fujiangsha waterway, the influence factors of nature, waterway and traffic environment are fully considered in this paper, which is a mature and widely used evaluation method in the engineering and safety fields, in order to find out the risks and problems existing in the navigation safety of Fujiangsha waterway. The evaluation index system of navigable environment in Fujiangsha water area was established and the safety degree was evaluated. Compared with the traditional evaluation methods, the influence of subjective factors on the evaluation results is greatly reduced and the degree of credibility of the evaluation results is improved through the analysis and research in this paper. From the point of view of navigable environment in traditional systems engineering, the research contents of this paper identify the factors that affect the navigation safety of Fujiangsha waterway by consulting a large number of documents and research results, and combining with expert opinions. Select and select the navigable environment evaluation index, establish the navigable environment safety evaluation system with the characteristics of Fujiangsha waterway, and compare the safety degree evaluation methods used at present, The evaluation results and conclusions of navigable environment safety degree are obtained by using the extensible matter-element theory in the field of engineering and safety at present. The navigable risks and main problems in Fujiangsha waterway are pointed out, and the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions to improve the safety degree are put forward. The evaluation model of navigable environment safety of Fujiangsha waterway based on extensible matter-element theory and its application in domestic navigable waters is for the first time, which enriches the theoretical system of port navigation environment safety evaluation. This method is simple and easy to operate, and it has more profound mathematical connotation than the traditional membership degree function. It is a good method worthy of further study in the field of safety evaluation of navigable waters. In this paper, the navigable environment evaluation model based on extensible matter-element theory is applied to the Fujiangsha waterway. It is of great practical value to put forward safety countermeasures and suggestions in view of the navigable risks and main problems in the waterway. It is of great significance to maintain the good navigable environmental order of Fujiangsha waterway, to ensure the safety management of Fujiangsha waterway wharf, to organize ship traffic flow, and to promote the sustainable development of Zhangjiagang port.
【學位授予單位】：武漢理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：U698

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