發(fā)布時間：2018-07-14 13:58

【摘要】：目前,日益嚴重的災(zāi)害問題已經(jīng)引起我國政府和學(xué)術(shù)界的高度關(guān)注。自然災(zāi)害風(fēng)險評估是一項以預(yù)防為主、防患于末然的重要防災(zāi)減災(zāi)措施,是開展綜合減災(zāi)和制定應(yīng)急管理對策的基礎(chǔ)和依據(jù),是目前災(zāi)害研究領(lǐng)域的熱點。在全球變暖與海平面上升的背景下,針對自然災(zāi)害發(fā)生頻率和強度不斷增高、災(zāi)害損失日益加劇這一趨勢,選取我國長江三角洲地區(qū)(江蘇、浙江、上海兩省一市全境)為研究區(qū),基于自然災(zāi)害研究的相關(guān)理論,消化吸收國內(nèi)外研究的最新成果,建立自然災(zāi)害分類體系,采集相關(guān)災(zāi)害數(shù)據(jù),構(gòu)建自然災(zāi)害元數(shù)據(jù)標準和數(shù)據(jù)庫,并應(yīng)用情景分析的方法和GIS技術(shù),開展了長江三角洲地區(qū)自然災(zāi)害風(fēng)險評估研究,為政府部門構(gòu)建區(qū)域風(fēng)險管理體系,促進防災(zāi)減災(zāi)工作的開展提供了科學(xué)依據(jù)。主要研究結(jié)果如下： (1)以地球系統(tǒng)科學(xué)為基礎(chǔ),按圈層結(jié)構(gòu)確定自然災(zāi)害性質(zhì)并分類。在這一分類體系中,氣象、水文、地質(zhì)、生物四大類型分別對應(yīng)地球表層系統(tǒng)結(jié)構(gòu)中的大氣圈、水圈、巖石圈和生物圈,有利于辨識和分析各致災(zāi)因子所處的孕災(zāi)環(huán)境,開展有針對性的脆弱性評價和風(fēng)險分析。該分類體系是構(gòu)建自然災(zāi)害元數(shù)據(jù)標準和長江三角洲自然災(zāi)害數(shù)據(jù)庫的重要參照,既借鑒了國際現(xiàn)行的自然災(zāi)害分類方法,也兼顧了國內(nèi)災(zāi)害研究和相關(guān)部門長期以來的分類習(xí)慣,具備良好的兼容性和可擴展性。 (2)在通過報刊資料采集自然災(zāi)害歷史數(shù)據(jù)時,應(yīng)重點關(guān)注三個問題：文本語義理解和自然災(zāi)害數(shù)據(jù)的抽�。蛔匀粸�(zāi)害事件的時空位置描述與匹配：自然災(zāi)害數(shù)據(jù)或文本信息的精度和可靠性評價。當(dāng)數(shù)據(jù)預(yù)處理和收錄工作完成以后,需要進行科學(xué)的數(shù)據(jù)編碼,為每一條記錄設(shè)置唯一的序列號作為標識。自然災(zāi)害類型編碼可采用分類碼+標識碼的方法,自然災(zāi)害事件編碼可采取自然災(zāi)害事件發(fā)生的具體日期+當(dāng)日編號的格式。 (3)通過分析元數(shù)據(jù)和元數(shù)據(jù)標準的定義、特征、分類以及作用,提出了自然災(zāi)害元數(shù)據(jù)標準的設(shè)計思路,并完成了自然災(zāi)害元數(shù)據(jù)標準的構(gòu)建,可以為自然災(zāi)害數(shù)據(jù)管理和數(shù)據(jù)庫開發(fā)提供服務(wù),也為自然災(zāi)害數(shù)據(jù)共亨提供了支持。自然災(zāi)害元數(shù)據(jù)標準的編制,定義了自然災(zāi)害元數(shù)據(jù)的內(nèi)容、結(jié)構(gòu)和格式。具體標準涵蓋六大實體、33個元素,另有36個子元素。對于每一個元數(shù)據(jù)元素,均有九個屬性對其加以限制和說明。 (4)在對國內(nèi)外主要自然災(zāi)害數(shù)據(jù)庫進行對比分析,總結(jié)國際先進經(jīng)驗以及我國現(xiàn)存問題的基礎(chǔ)上,提出了長江三角洲自然災(zāi)害數(shù)據(jù)庫的建設(shè)思路,主要包含建設(shè)原則、總體設(shè)計和軟硬件環(huán)境三方面。完成了長江三角洲自然災(zāi)害數(shù)據(jù)庫的結(jié)構(gòu)設(shè)計,建立了數(shù)據(jù)概念模型,詳細介紹了各數(shù)據(jù)表的結(jié)構(gòu)及關(guān)系,并討論了長江三角洲自然災(zāi)害數(shù)據(jù)庫的管理和維護,主要包括用戶管理、數(shù)據(jù)管理、數(shù)據(jù)庫性能維護、數(shù)據(jù)庫備份與恢復(fù)等。 (5)對近60年長江三角洲地區(qū)自然災(zāi)害時空演變開展研究,分析其時空格局及特征,討論了自然災(zāi)害發(fā)生次數(shù)年際和月際的變化,從省(直轄市)和縣(市轄區(qū))兩級行政單元剖析了自然災(zāi)害發(fā)生次數(shù)的空間分布。結(jié)果顯示：自然災(zāi)害高發(fā)區(qū)集中在長江三角洲地區(qū)沿海的各縣(市轄區(qū)),就整個長江三角洲地區(qū)而言,中部和南部的自然災(zāi)害發(fā)生情況相較北部更為嚴重。在此基礎(chǔ)上,建立了階線性自回歸預(yù)測模型,對長江三角洲地區(qū)自然災(zāi)害未來的變化趨勢作了分析與預(yù)測。根據(jù)計算結(jié)果,長江三角洲地區(qū)未來至2020年,自然災(zāi)害的發(fā)生次數(shù)呈現(xiàn)上升趨勢。2010年出現(xiàn)的高峰在2013年略有回落,但2013年以后則一直穩(wěn)步升高。預(yù)計到2016年,自然災(zāi)害發(fā)生次數(shù)將重新回到2010年的水平。到2020年,將會出現(xiàn)新的歷史峰值。 (6)在重現(xiàn)期為10年的臺風(fēng)災(zāi)害情景下,各縣(市轄區(qū))的災(zāi)損率均較低,低脆弱性和中等脆弱性的地區(qū)面積相當(dāng),多數(shù)縣(市轄區(qū))屬于低風(fēng)險或較低風(fēng)險。在重現(xiàn)期為50年的臺風(fēng)災(zāi)害情景下,低脆弱性和較低脆弱性的縣(市轄區(qū))只剩零星分布,大多數(shù)地區(qū)都達到中等或較高的脆弱性,低風(fēng)險和較低風(fēng)險地區(qū)面積大幅縮減,江蘇和浙江都出現(xiàn)了許多中等風(fēng)險或較高風(fēng)險的縣(市轄區(qū))。在重現(xiàn)期為100年的臺風(fēng)災(zāi)害情景下,長江三角洲地區(qū)大部分縣(市轄區(qū))都呈現(xiàn)較高脆弱性或高脆弱性,中部幾乎均為高風(fēng)險或較高風(fēng)險地區(qū),北部有大量中等風(fēng)險地區(qū),南部風(fēng)險相對較低。 (7)在重現(xiàn)期為10年的洪水災(zāi)害情景下,連云港、鹽城、揚州、上海、紹興、麗水、臺州等地區(qū)呈現(xiàn)高或較高脆弱性,常州、蘇州等地區(qū)呈現(xiàn)總體偏低的脆弱性,長江三角洲中部地區(qū)風(fēng)險較高,蘇北地區(qū)、浙江中部和南部大片地區(qū)風(fēng)險較低。在重現(xiàn)期為50年的洪水災(zāi)害情景下,較低脆弱性的地區(qū)僅余遂昌、溧陽兩地,原有的低風(fēng)險區(qū)面積縮減了約一半,高風(fēng)險區(qū)向南北擴張,蘇南、浙北地區(qū)的風(fēng)險有所提升。在重現(xiàn)期為100年的洪水災(zāi)害情景下,長江三角洲地區(qū)出現(xiàn)比較極端的脆弱性分布,全境大多數(shù)地區(qū)都呈現(xiàn)高脆弱性,中部的高風(fēng)險地區(qū)面積繼續(xù)擴大,總體風(fēng)險較低的地區(qū)僅剩浙西南以麗水地區(qū)為代表的少數(shù)區(qū)域。 (8)在重現(xiàn)期為10年的暴雨災(zāi)害情景下,各縣(市轄區(qū))總體屬于中低脆弱性,風(fēng)險也較低。在重現(xiàn)期為50年的暴雨災(zāi)害情景下,長江三角洲地區(qū)脆弱性整體上升,絕大多數(shù)區(qū)域為中高脆弱性,較低脆弱性僅在浙江中部和東北部有零星分布,中等風(fēng)險的區(qū)域面積擴張較多,低風(fēng)險和較低低風(fēng)險區(qū)域主要分布在江蘇北部和浙江南部。在重現(xiàn)期為100年的暴雨災(zāi)害情景下,長江三角洲地區(qū)脆弱性繼續(xù)攀升,大量出現(xiàn)高脆弱性區(qū)域,僅有少量中等脆弱性地區(qū),原有的高風(fēng)險區(qū)域向北發(fā)展較快,而浙江南部則擁有比較穩(wěn)定的低風(fēng)險和較低風(fēng)險區(qū)域。 (9)在重現(xiàn)期為10年的風(fēng)暴潮災(zāi)害情景下,長江三角洲沿海地區(qū)總體呈現(xiàn)中等偏低的脆弱性,風(fēng)險水平總體也不高。在重現(xiàn)期為50年的風(fēng)暴潮災(zāi)害情景下,長江三角洲沿海多數(shù)地區(qū)處于中等脆弱性,脆弱性較高的區(qū)域有比較明顯的增加,風(fēng)險主要集中于中部沿海地帶。在重現(xiàn)期為100年的風(fēng)暴潮災(zāi)害情景下,長江三角洲沿海地區(qū)絕大多數(shù)縣(市轄區(qū))都呈現(xiàn)偏高的脆弱性,且處于中高風(fēng)險水平,高風(fēng)險區(qū)和較高風(fēng)險區(qū)繼續(xù)擴張,只有蘇北和浙北沿海還有很少量的區(qū)域風(fēng)險相對較低。 (10)在重現(xiàn)期為10年的十早災(zāi)害情景下,整個長江三角洲地區(qū)未出現(xiàn)高脆弱性區(qū)域,少量低脆弱性區(qū)域主要出現(xiàn)在蘇北、浙江中部和舟山地區(qū),高風(fēng)險區(qū)域主要集中在長江三角洲中部地區(qū),風(fēng)險最低的地區(qū)位于浙江南部。在重現(xiàn)期為50年的干旱災(zāi)害情景下,長江三角洲地區(qū)的中部和北部出現(xiàn)了一定數(shù)量的高脆弱性縣(市轄區(qū)),較低脆弱性區(qū)域僅余浙江的東陽市和金華市轄區(qū)兩處,中部的高風(fēng)險區(qū)面積有所擴大。在重現(xiàn)期為100年的干旱災(zāi)害情景下,大多數(shù)縣(市轄區(qū))旱現(xiàn)出高脆弱性,已無脆弱性相對較低的地區(qū)和低風(fēng)險區(qū)域,除浙江省西部和南部總體風(fēng)險水平相對較低外,其余地區(qū)兒乎都處于中高風(fēng)險水平。
[Abstract]:At present, the increasingly serious disaster problem has attracted the attention of the government and the academia. The risk assessment of natural disasters is an important prevention and mitigation measures, which is the main prevention and prevention of disaster. It is the basis and basis for the comprehensive disaster reduction and emergency management countermeasures. It is a hot spot in the field of disaster research and the global warming. In the context of the rising sea level, in view of the increasing frequency and intensity of natural disasters and the increasing loss of disaster, the Yangtze Delta region (Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, two provinces and one city) is selected as the research area. Based on the related theories of natural disaster research, the latest achievements of domestic and foreign research are digested and absorbed. The disaster classification system, collecting related disaster data, constructing the standard and database of natural disaster metadata, and applying the method of scenario analysis and GIS technology, carried out the study on the risk assessment of natural disasters in the Yangtze River Delta region, which provided a scientific basis for the government departments to construct regional risk management system and promote the development of disaster prevention and reduction work. The main results are as follows:
(1) on the basis of earth system science, the nature and classification of natural disasters are determined according to the layer structure. In this classification system, the four major types of meteorology, hydrology, geology and biology correspond to the atmosphere, water, lithosphere and biosphere in the structure of the earth's surface system respectively. It is beneficial to identify and analyze the environment of disaster caused by the factors causing the disaster. This classification system is an important reference for the construction of the natural disaster metadata standard and the Yangtze River Delta natural disaster database. It not only draws on the current international classification methods of natural disasters, but also takes into account the classification habits of domestic disaster research and related departments for a long period, and has good compatibility. And extensibility.
(2) when collecting natural disaster historical data through newspapers and periodicals, we should focus on three issues: text semantic understanding and natural disaster data extraction; time and space location description and matching of natural disaster events: the accuracy and reliability evaluation of natural disaster data or text information. When data preprocessing and collection work is completed, Scientific data coding is needed to set the unique sequence number for each record as a sign. The natural disaster type code can be coded by the classification code + identification code, and the natural disaster event coding can take the specific date of the natural disaster events + the format of the day number.
(3) through the analysis of the definition, characteristics, classification and function of metadata and metadata standards, the design idea of the metadata standard for natural disasters is proposed, and the construction of the metadata standard for natural disasters is completed, which can provide service for the natural disaster data management and database development, and also provide support for the natural disaster data co hener. The metadata standard is compiled, and the content, structure and format of natural disaster metadata are defined. The specific standard covers six entities, 33 elements, and 36 sub elements. For each metadata element, there are nine attributes to restrict and explain.
(4) based on the comparison and analysis of the major natural disasters database at home and abroad, and on the basis of the advanced international experience and the existing problems in China, this paper puts forward the construction ideas of the natural disaster database of the Yangtze River Delta, including the construction principles, the overall design and the software and hardware environment in three aspects. The structure and the relation of each data table are introduced in detail, and the management and maintenance of the natural disaster database of the Yangtze River Delta are discussed, including user management, data management, database performance maintenance, database backup and recovery, etc.
(5) to study the spatio-temporal evolution of natural disasters in the Yangtze River Delta region for the last 60 years, analyze the spatial and temporal pattern and characteristics, discuss the interannual and interannual changes of the frequency of natural disasters, and analyze the spatial distribution of the frequency of natural disasters from the two level administrative units of the Province (municipality) and county (municipal district). The results show that the high incidence area of natural disasters is shown. The occurrence of natural disasters in the central and southern parts of the Yangtze River Delta region is more serious than that in the northern part of the Yangtze River Delta. On this basis, a linear autoregressive model is established to analyze and predict the future trend of natural disasters in the Yangtze River Delta. According to the calculated results, the number of natural disasters in the Yangtze River Delta region is rising in 2020, the peak of the occurrence of natural disasters is rising in.2010 years in 2013, but it has risen steadily since 2013. It is expected that by 2016, the number of natural disasters will return to 2010 level. To 2020, a new historical peak will appear.
(6) under the typhoon disaster scenario with a period of 10 years of recurrence, the damage rates of the counties (municipal districts) are low, the areas with low vulnerability and medium vulnerability are equal, and most counties (municipalities) belong to low risk or lower risk. In the typhoon disaster scenario with the recurrence period of 50 years, the low vulnerability and low vulnerability counties (municipal districts) are only fragmentary. Most areas are vulnerable to medium or high vulnerability, low risk and low risk areas have been substantially reduced, and many moderate or high risk counties (municipalities) have appeared in Jiangsu and Zhejiang. Most counties (municipalities) in the Yangtze River Delta region have high vulnerability in the 100 year recurrence period of typhoon disaster. Or high vulnerability, the central region is almost all high risk or high risk area, there are a large number of medium risk areas in the north, and relatively low risk in the south.
(7) under the flood disaster situation of 10 years, Lianyungang, Yancheng, Yangzhou, Shanghai, Shaoxing, Lishui, Taizhou and other regions showed high or high vulnerability, Changzhou, Suzhou and other regions showed overall low vulnerability, high risk in the central region of the Yangtze River Delta, North and south of Zhejiang, low risk. Under the 50 year flood disaster scenario, the region of lower vulnerability is only Suichang, and in Liyang, the area of the original low risk area has been reduced by about half, the high-risk area is expanding to the north and south, and the risk of South of Jiangsu and Northern Zhejiang is increased. In the flood disaster situation of 100 years in the recurrence period, the Yangtze River Delta region has a relatively extreme vulnerability. Distribution, most areas of the whole region are high vulnerability, the area of high risk areas in the middle of the region continues to expand, and the areas with lower overall risk are only a few areas in the southwest of Zhejiang Province, represented by the Lishui region.
(8) under the scenario of 10 years of rainstorm, all counties (municipal districts) belong to middle and low vulnerability and low risk. Under the scenario of 50 years of heavy rain disaster, the vulnerability of the Yangtze River Delta region is up as a whole, the vast majority of the regions are middle and high fragility, and the lower vulnerability is only scattered in the middle and northeast of Zhejiang. The area of equal risk has more area expansion, low risk and lower risk areas are mainly distributed in northern Jiangsu and southern Zhejiang. Under the 100 year rainstorm disaster scenario, the vulnerability of the Yangtze River Delta region continues to rise, with a large number of high vulnerability areas, only a small number of moderately fragile areas, and the original high risk area north. Faster development, while southern Zhejiang has relatively stable low risk and low risk areas.
(9) under the storm surge disaster of 10 years, the coastal areas of the Yangtze River Delta are generally low and low, and the risk level is not high generally. Under the storm tide disaster of 50 years, the coastal areas of the Yangtze River Delta are in medium vulnerability, and the region with high vulnerability increases obviously. Under the storm tide disaster of 100 years, most of the counties (municipal districts) in the coastal areas of the Yangtze River Delta are prone to high risk, at the middle and high risk level, the high risk areas and the higher risk areas continue to expand, with only a small amount of regional risk in the northern and northern coastal areas. It is lower.
(10) under the ten early disaster situation of 10 years, there is no high vulnerability area in the whole Yangtze River Delta region. A small number of low vulnerability regions mainly occur in Northern Jiangsu, central Zhejiang and Zhoushan. The high risk areas are mainly concentrated in the central region of the Yangtze River Delta, and the lowest risk area is located in the southern part of Zhejiang. The recurrence period is 50 years. Under the situation of drought disaster, a certain number of high fragile counties (municipal districts) have appeared in the middle and northern parts of the Yangtze River Delta. The lower vulnerability region is only two of Dongyang and Jinhua in Zhejiang, and the area of high risk area in the middle of the Yangtze River Delta is enlarged. In the drought disaster situation of 100 years, most counties (municipal districts) are droughts. With high vulnerability, there are no areas with relatively low vulnerability and low risk areas. In addition to the relatively low overall risk level in the western and southern parts of Zhejiang, the rest of the region are at a middle and high risk level.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華東師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：X43

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