本文選題：區(qū)域 + 災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)�。� 參考：《大連理工大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：近年來,國內(nèi)外災(zāi)害頻發(fā),造成巨大的人員傷亡和財(cái)產(chǎn)損失,災(zāi)害發(fā)生的時(shí)間、區(qū)域和種類都具有極大的不確定性,亟需對區(qū)域?yàn)?zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行認(rèn)識(shí)與評估,并在此基礎(chǔ)上進(jìn)行災(zāi)害的管理,有助于將災(zāi)害管理從事后被動(dòng)的應(yīng)對延伸至事前,為管理者認(rèn)識(shí)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和制定決策提供參考。災(zāi)害發(fā)生后,往往其發(fā)生區(qū)域范圍廣泛,缺乏區(qū)域應(yīng)對災(zāi)害的歷史數(shù)據(jù),災(zāi)害后果也不再局限于單一事件,災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)具有很強(qiáng)的延展性與不確定性,因此需要從區(qū)域?yàn)?zāi)害形成及演化的機(jī)理出發(fā),系統(tǒng)地研究區(qū)域?yàn)?zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)及其評估。本文則從災(zāi)害系統(tǒng)論的角度,基于承災(zāi)體分析區(qū)域?yàn)?zāi)害形成及演化的機(jī)理,研究區(qū)域?yàn)?zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)及其評估,認(rèn)為區(qū)域?yàn)?zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是致災(zāi)因子、區(qū)域承災(zāi)體暴露、區(qū)域承災(zāi)體脆弱性、區(qū)域承災(zāi)體關(guān)聯(lián)及區(qū)域應(yīng)急響應(yīng)能力的綜合作用,并以風(fēng)險(xiǎn)作用的結(jié)果即承災(zāi)體損失來反應(yīng)區(qū)域?yàn)?zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的動(dòng)態(tài)性與不確定性。本文不僅對區(qū)域?yàn)?zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的關(guān)鍵因素展開研究,還試圖綜合各因素,建立區(qū)域?yàn)?zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估模型,具體研究內(nèi)容如下：首先,對區(qū)域、區(qū)域?yàn)?zāi)害系統(tǒng)及區(qū)域?yàn)?zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)及其評估的概念進(jìn)行說明,并具體說明各要素的內(nèi)涵,分析承災(zāi)體的關(guān)鍵作用,提出區(qū)域?yàn)?zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)及其評估的研究框架。其次,對區(qū)域承災(zāi)體暴露性指標(biāo)進(jìn)行分析,結(jié)合年鑒等統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù),利用SOM網(wǎng)對區(qū)域承災(zāi)體暴露性進(jìn)行聚類,得到區(qū)域暴露性相似性結(jié)果,從區(qū)域暴露性角度反應(yīng)區(qū)域?yàn)?zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)相似性。然后,通過分析應(yīng)急響應(yīng)行動(dòng)與區(qū)域?yàn)?zāi)害后果的關(guān)系,構(gòu)建應(yīng)急響應(yīng)邏輯流程,作為預(yù)案評估的模版,利用計(jì)算流程相似性的方法得到區(qū)域發(fā)生某事件的預(yù)案有效性,作為區(qū)域應(yīng)急響應(yīng)能力的定量評估結(jié)果。最后,綜合考慮區(qū)域?yàn)?zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估所需要考慮的各要素,構(gòu)建承災(zāi)體狀態(tài)網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型,確定承災(zāi)體狀態(tài)在各因素影響下的演化規(guī)則,并以承災(zāi)體各狀態(tài)在不同階段的分布反應(yīng)區(qū)域?yàn)?zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的動(dòng)態(tài)性,通過仿真實(shí)驗(yàn)分析區(qū)域?yàn)?zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)及區(qū)域應(yīng)急響應(yīng)能力的效果,為區(qū)域制定應(yīng)急響應(yīng)策略提供參考。本文針對區(qū)域?yàn)?zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)及其評估的研究,使災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)及其評估更具針對性；并且從災(zāi)害系統(tǒng)論出發(fā),以災(zāi)害發(fā)生與發(fā)展的機(jī)理為基礎(chǔ),明確承災(zāi)體的關(guān)鍵作用,確定區(qū)域?yàn)?zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)及其評估框架,為認(rèn)識(shí)和評估區(qū)域?yàn)?zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提供思路；同時(shí),采取實(shí)證分析與系統(tǒng)仿真相結(jié)合的方法,為區(qū)域應(yīng)對災(zāi)害事件提供參考依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:In recent years, frequent disasters at home and abroad, resulting in huge casualties and property losses, the time of disasters, regions and types of great uncertainty, it is urgent to recognize and assess the regional disaster risk. On this basis, disaster management is helpful to extend disaster management from passive response to prior management, and provide reference for managers to understand risks and make decisions. After disasters occur, they often occur in a wide range of areas, lack of historical data of regional response to disasters, disaster consequences are no longer limited to a single event, disaster risk has a strong ductility and uncertainty. Therefore, it is necessary to systematically study regional disaster risk and its assessment from the mechanism of formation and evolution of regional disasters. From the view of disaster system theory, based on the analysis of the mechanism of formation and evolution of regional disaster, this paper studies the regional disaster risk and its assessment, and concludes that regional disaster risk is the disaster causing factor, the exposure of regional disaster bearing body, and the vulnerability of regional disaster bearing body. The correlation of regional disaster bearing body and the comprehensive effect of regional emergency response ability, and the result of risk effect, that is, disaster bearing body loss, is used to reflect the dynamic and uncertainty of regional disaster risk. This paper not only studies the key factors of regional disaster risk, but also attempts to establish a regional disaster risk assessment model by synthesizing the factors. The specific research contents are as follows: first, to the region, The concept of regional disaster system and regional disaster risk and its assessment are explained, the connotation of each element is explained in detail, the key role of disaster bearing body is analyzed, and the research framework of regional disaster risk and its assessment is put forward. Secondly, the exposure index of regional disaster bearing body is analyzed, combined with the statistical data such as yearbook, using SOM net to cluster the exposure of regional disaster bearing body, the similarity result of regional exposure is obtained. The similarity of regional disaster risk is reflected from the angle of regional exposure. Then, by analyzing the relationship between emergency response action and regional disaster consequences, an emergency response logical process is constructed, which is used as a template for planning evaluation, and the effectiveness of an event in a region is obtained by using the method of calculating the similarity of process. As a quantitative assessment of regional emergency response capacity. Finally, considering all the factors that need to be considered in regional disaster risk assessment, the model of disaster bearing body state network is constructed, and the evolution rules of disaster bearing body state under the influence of various factors are determined. Based on the dynamic characteristics of regional disaster risk in different stages, the effects of regional disaster risk and regional emergency response ability are analyzed by simulation experiments, which provides a reference for regional emergency response strategy. This paper aims at the research of regional disaster risk and its assessment, makes the disaster risk and its assessment more targeted, and from the disaster system theory, based on the mechanism of disaster occurrence and development, clarifies the key role of disaster bearing body. Regional disaster risk and its assessment framework are determined to provide ideas for recognizing and evaluating regional disaster risk. At the same time, the method of combining empirical analysis with system simulation is adopted to provide reference for regional response to disaster events.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：大連理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：X4

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本文編號(hào)：2099374