本文選題：風險管理 + 項目風險��； 參考：《上海交通大學》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著經(jīng)濟的快速發(fā)展，人們越來越注重自己工作和生活的環(huán)境和自身的健康狀況，營造一個良好的工作環(huán)境不但可以提升工作效率，保護員工的健康，而且可以加強員工對公司的忠誠度，進而留住合適的、優(yōu)秀的員工與公司共同發(fā)展。工業(yè)除塵作為新興的健康、安全、環(huán)保項目在國外已經(jīng)日趨成熟，但在我國還屬于尚未開發(fā)潛力市場，并在大型工程項目中顯現(xiàn)出廣闊的前景和潛力，但研究工作尚未形成專題化、系統(tǒng)化，工程實踐中也沒有規(guī)范地開展相應的專項風險管理工作。這些風險如果發(fā)生，不但增加了項目的各種潛在損失，而且很可能還會導致許多次生風險，增加項目的管理難度，使得項目變得不可控乃至失敗。因此，對其進行專業(yè)的風險管理就顯得尤為重要。 本文采用專業(yè)PMP風險分析工具，，采取定性和定量相結(jié)合的風險研究方式（概率影響矩陣，敏感性分析，龍卷風圖），貫穿項目的啟動-規(guī)劃-執(zhí)行-監(jiān)控-收尾全過程，對風險進行全程的跟蹤和把控。從風險規(guī)劃-識別-評估-分析-監(jiān)控等過程將風險進行評級(高\中\(zhòng)低)，進而針對風險分解結(jié)構(gòu)(RBS)對風險進行分解，在對項目風險進行精確描述的基礎上，提出各級風險的應對策略和具體應對措施。利用風險監(jiān)控進一步評估所識別風險是否發(fā)生以及所用應對策略和措施是否有效。在項目的執(zhí)行過程中進一步識別新風險，完善風險登記冊，建立風險預警系統(tǒng)，并在此基礎上引入掙值管理的概念，對項目的進度和成本進行SPI和CPI值的實時管理和監(jiān)控。在進度與計劃一致，但成本嚴重偏差并有加大趨勢的情況下，結(jié)合工作分解結(jié)構(gòu)（WBS）中的成本工作包，采用Crystal ball進行蒙特卡洛分析和成本模擬，給出在一定置信度下，項目不同成功概率所對應的應急儲備或管理儲備，使項目管理人員對項目風險有較好的管理、跟蹤和把控。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of economy, people pay more and more attention to their working and living environment and their own health. Creating a good working environment can not only improve the working efficiency, but also protect the health of employees. And can strengthen employee loyalty to the company, and then retain the appropriate, excellent staff and the company common development. Industrial dust removal, as a new health, safety and environmental protection project, has become more and more mature in foreign countries, but it still belongs to the market of untapped potential in our country, and shows broad prospect and potential in large engineering projects. However, the research work has not yet been monographically and systematized, and the corresponding special risk management work has not been standardized in engineering practice. If these risks occur, it will not only increase the potential loss of the project, but also lead to many secondary risks, increase the difficulty of project management, make the project become uncontrollable and even fail. Therefore, it is particularly important to carry out professional risk management. This paper adopts the professional PMP risk analysis tool, adopts the qualitative and quantitative risk research method (probabilistic impact matrix, sensitivity analysis, tornado map), runs through the whole process of starting, planning, executing, monitoring and finishing of the project. Follow up and control the risk all the time. From the risk planning, identifying, evaluating, analyzing, monitoring and so on, the risk is graded (high, middle / low), and then the risk is decomposed according to the risk decomposition structure (RBS). Based on the accurate description of the project risk, Put forward all levels of risk coping strategies and specific countermeasures. Use risk monitoring to further assess whether the identified risk occurs and the effectiveness of the coping strategies and measures used. In the process of project implementation, new risks are further identified, risk registers are perfected, risk warning systems are established, and the concept of earned value management is introduced on this basis, and the SPI and CPI value real-time management and monitoring of project schedule and cost are carried out. Under the condition that the schedule is consistent with the plan, but the cost deviation is serious and the trend is increasing, combining with the cost work package in the work decomposition structure (WBS), using Crystal ball to carry out Monte Carlo analysis and cost simulation, it is given that under certain confidence, The emergency reserve or management reserve corresponding to the different success probability of the project makes the project manager better manage, track and control the project risk.
【學位授予單位】：上海交通大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：X964

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