本文選題：城市軌道交通 + 管理信息系統(tǒng)��； 參考：《天津職業(yè)技術(shù)師范大學》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：近年來我國多數(shù)城市已開通軌道交通運輸，加之城市軌道交通屬于乘客密集型公共場所，大都在地下密閉空間運行，如若發(fā)生安全事件，將產(chǎn)生極大的社會影響。因此保障地鐵運營的安全成為運營企業(yè)首要的工作重點。鑒于多數(shù)城市的城市軌道交通工程屬于新建或改擴建，其運營安全管理經(jīng)驗相對欠缺，新技術(shù)的運用、新人員的增加、局部社會不穩(wěn)定的態(tài)勢、網(wǎng)絡(luò)化的運行給地鐵運營安全管理工作帶來了新的挑戰(zhàn)。 安全風險預(yù)測是城市軌道交通安全管控工作的核心之一。城市軌道交通運營安全的歷史事件及數(shù)據(jù)、運營管理公司的安全工作經(jīng)驗、領(lǐng)域內(nèi)的專家知識都是城市軌道交通運營安全風險預(yù)測的重要組成部分。城市軌道交通運營專業(yè)性強、裝備技術(shù)復(fù)雜、乘客參與人數(shù)多，，因而對其進行風險預(yù)測難度較大，這是一種典型的不確定性知識的表達與推理過程，主要依賴于世界上智能理論的發(fā)展，應(yīng)用先進理論對城市軌道交通運營體系進行有效建模分析，將極大提高其安全風險預(yù)測水平。 安全管理工作的現(xiàn)代化管理模式必須適應(yīng)新時期內(nèi)的企業(yè)標準化要求，安全管理信息系統(tǒng)是安全管理中的重要組成部分。科學合理化預(yù)測和控制安全事故不但可以避免企業(yè)經(jīng)濟損失，而且創(chuàng)造額外利潤，其地位幾乎與技術(shù)、資金等因素基本相等同。在科學技術(shù)飛速發(fā)展的21世紀，企業(yè)只有對安全信息進行有效管理和合理決策分析，才能科學采取有效措施預(yù)防安全事故的發(fā)生和減少經(jīng)濟損失。企業(yè)通過安全管理信息系統(tǒng)需求分析，開發(fā)并運用安全管理信息系統(tǒng)，將日常安全管理信息上傳至系統(tǒng)SQL Server數(shù)據(jù)庫，運用安全預(yù)測分析理論與數(shù)學模型和方法分析數(shù)據(jù)庫信息和預(yù)測事故發(fā)展趨勢，找出造成事故的原因并總結(jié)經(jīng)驗，科學預(yù)測事故發(fā)生的高頻時段。 貝葉斯網(wǎng)是不確定知識的表達與推理的智能理論之一，在軍隊、政府、醫(yī)療、航空等領(lǐng)域有了較為成功的應(yīng)用案例，將其引入城市軌道交通運營安全風險預(yù)測工作中，將極大地拓展其應(yīng)用的范圍與理論深度，通過結(jié)合城市軌道交通領(lǐng)域內(nèi)專家知識，共同推測系統(tǒng)運營安全的專項或整體水平，尋找安全管控中的薄弱環(huán)節(jié)，進行措施的改進，進一步提高安全管理決策的能力，使其更加科學可靠。
[Abstract]:In recent years, rail transit has been opened in most cities of our country. In addition, urban rail transit belongs to passenger intensive public places, and most of them operate in closed underground space. If safety incidents occur, it will have a great social impact. Therefore, to ensure the safety of subway operation has become the primary focus of the operation enterprise. In view of the fact that the urban rail transit projects in most cities belong to new construction or reconstruction and extension, their operation safety management experience is relatively lacking, the application of new technology, the increase of new personnel, and the unstable situation of local society. The operation of network brings new challenges to the safety management of subway operation. Safety risk prediction is one of the core of urban rail transit safety control. The historical events and data of urban rail transit operation safety, the safety work experience of the operation management company, and the expert knowledge in the field are all important components of the urban rail transit operation safety risk prediction. The operation of urban rail transit is highly professional, the equipment technology is complex, and the number of passengers is large, so it is difficult to predict the risk, which is a typical uncertain knowledge expression and reasoning process. Depending on the development of intelligent theory in the world, the application of advanced theory to the effective modeling and analysis of urban rail transit operation system will greatly improve the level of safety risk prediction. The modern management mode of safety management must meet the requirements of enterprise standardization in the new period. Safety management information system is an important part of security management. Scientific and rational prediction and control of safety accidents can not only avoid economic losses of enterprises but also create extra profits. Their status is almost the same as that of technology and capital. In the 21st century, with the rapid development of science and technology, enterprises can take effective measures to prevent the occurrence of safety accidents and reduce economic losses only by effective management and rational decision analysis of safety information. Through the security management information system requirement analysis, the enterprise develops and uses the security management information system, uploads the daily security management information to the system SQL Server database, The theory of safety prediction and mathematical model and method are used to analyze the database information and forecast the developing trend of accidents, to find out the causes of accidents and to sum up the experience, and to scientifically predict the high frequency period of accidents. Bayesian network is one of the intelligent theories of uncertain knowledge expression and reasoning. It has been successfully applied in military, government, medical, aviation and other fields. It will greatly expand the scope of its application and theoretical depth, through the combination of the field of urban rail transit experts knowledge, jointly speculate on the system operation safety special or overall level, to find the weak links in safety control, measures to improve, Further improve the ability of safety management decision-making, make it more scientific and reliable.
【學位授予單位】：天津職業(yè)技術(shù)師范大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：U298

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