本文選題：災害風險分析 + 災害損失��； 參考：《地理與地理信息科學》2016年04期

【摘要】：基于災害損失歷史統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù),借助于內外集模型(IOSM)進行自然災害風險分析。首先確定觀測區(qū)間并檢驗觀測樣本的分布形式,基于此確定其可能性-概率分布矩陣PPD,然后計算災害損失的風險期望值,并基于ArcGIS制作不同災害情境下各災害損失指標的風險分布圖。針對蘇州市主要自然災害類型,選取受災人口、倒塌房屋、農(nóng)作物受災面積和直接經(jīng)濟損失作為災害損失指標進行災害風險分析,得到以下主要結論:1)不同災害類型下各災害損失指標的風險水平和復現(xiàn)期不同,其中臺風導致200萬人口、12 500hm2農(nóng)作物受災和42.5萬間房屋倒塌的復現(xiàn)期均為7.2~7.5a。2)不同類型災害的損失特征和程度不同,臺風對人口、農(nóng)作物和房屋的影響最大;洪澇災害的直接經(jīng)濟損失最大,說明洪澇災害后果最嚴重;風雹對各項指標的影響都比較小,與其影響區(qū)域小、持續(xù)時間短等局部災害特征有關。3)各類型災害損失風險呈現(xiàn)顯著的空間差異特征,對臺風導致的災害損失風險分析表明,吳中區(qū)、吳江市、常熟市和張家港市的災害風險最大;常熟市和吳中區(qū)臺風導致受災人口和農(nóng)作物減產(chǎn)的風險最大,市區(qū)周圍臺風導致受災人口風險最小;常熟市臺風導致房屋倒塌的風險最大。4)災害發(fā)生概率及其可能性共同決定災害損失風險。研究成果對民政部門制訂、調整、規(guī)劃救災對策以及民生保險預算具有重要意義。
[Abstract]:Based on the historical statistical data of disaster loss, natural disaster risk analysis is carried out with the help of internal and external collection model (IOSM). First, the observation interval is determined and the distribution form of the observation sample is tested. Based on this, the probability distribution matrix PPDs are determined, and then the risk expectation value of the disaster loss is calculated. And based on ArcGIS, the risk distribution map of each disaster loss index under different disaster situation is made. According to the main types of natural disasters in Suzhou, disaster risk analysis is carried out by selecting affected population, collapsed houses, affected areas of crops and direct economic losses as disaster loss indicators. The main conclusions are as follows: 1) the risk level and recurrence period of each disaster loss index under different disaster types are different. Among them, the damage characteristics and degrees of different types of disasters were different in the recurrence period of 2 million people and 12 500hm2 crops and 425000 houses collapsing. The typhoon had the greatest impact on the population, crops and houses. The direct economic losses of flood and waterlogging disasters are the largest, which shows that the flood and waterlogging disasters have the most serious consequences, and the wind and hail have less impact on each index than in the affected areas. The characteristics of local disasters of short duration are related to. 3) each type of disaster loss risk shows significant spatial difference. The analysis of disaster loss risk caused by typhoon shows that Wuzhong District, Wujiang City, Changshu City and Zhangjiagang City have the greatest disaster risk. Changshu City and Wuzhong District caused the greatest risk of population and crop reduction caused by typhoons, and the least risk caused by typhoons around the urban area. In Changshu City, the risk of building collapse caused by typhoon is the biggest. 4) the probability and possibility of disaster jointly determine the risk of disaster loss. The research results are of great significance for civil affairs departments to formulate, adjust, plan disaster relief countermeasures and budget for people's livelihood insurance.
【作者單位】： 蘇州科技大學;蘇州市民政局;
【基金】：江蘇省政府留學基金項目(JS-2012-275) 住房與城鄉(xiāng)建設部科技項目(2013-R2-9)
【分類號】：X43

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