本文選題：航班安全　切入點(diǎn)：運(yùn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)耦合　出處：《中國(guó)安全科學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)》2017年07期

【摘要】：為定量分析風(fēng)險(xiǎn)多因素間互相影響,以民用航空安全統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ),使用N-K模型和耦合度模型分別對(duì)航班運(yùn)行數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行計(jì)算得到耦合值。系統(tǒng)分析在地面和空中時(shí)航班運(yùn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)耦合情況。結(jié)果表明:空中運(yùn)行航班,受空管因素影響不大,當(dāng)機(jī)組方面存在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)時(shí),需特別注意天氣與機(jī)械故障;航班在地面時(shí),避免3個(gè)及以上因素同時(shí)發(fā)生即可有效管控風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。無(wú)論在地面或空中,機(jī)械維修與天氣因素耦合度值較高,兩者同時(shí)發(fā)生將嚴(yán)重威脅運(yùn)行安全。2種模型所得耦合度數(shù)值趨勢(shì)吻合度較高。
[Abstract]:In order to quantitatively analyze the interaction between the risk factors, the N-K model and the coupling degree model are used to calculate the flight operation data to get the coupling value based on the civil aviation safety statistics.The risk coupling of flight running on the ground and in the air is analyzed systematically.The results show that the flight running in the air is not affected by the air traffic control factors. When there is a risk to the crew, special attention should be paid to the weather and mechanical failure, and when the flight is on the ground, the risk can be effectively controlled by avoiding three or more factors at the same time.Whether on the ground or in the air, the coupling degree of mechanical maintenance and weather factors is high, and the coupling degree of two models will seriously threaten the safety of operation.
【作者單位】： 中國(guó)民航大學(xué)空管運(yùn)行安全技術(shù)國(guó)家重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室;
【基金】：民航局科技項(xiàng)目(20150204) 中央高�；究蒲袠I(yè)務(wù)費(fèi)資助(3122014D041)
【分類號(hào)】：V328
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本文編號(hào)：1706134