本文關(guān)鍵詞： 二次預(yù)警 指標(biāo)體系 警限區(qū)間 神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò) 信息發(fā)布　出處：《長(zhǎng)安大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：高速公路的興建是交通事業(yè)向現(xiàn)代化邁進(jìn)的標(biāo)志，，它帶給了人們巨大的經(jīng)濟(jì)效益和社會(huì)效益,但同時(shí)也給其管理者和使用者帶來了不可彌補(bǔ)的重大財(cái)產(chǎn)損失和人員傷亡。隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)的不斷發(fā)展，人們的生活水平不斷提高，在快速發(fā)展的道路形式多樣化的基礎(chǔ)上，其出行方式也開始呈現(xiàn)出多元化，人們的出行環(huán)境日漸復(fù)雜。因此，一旦有交通事故發(fā)生在復(fù)雜路網(wǎng)環(huán)境下的高速公路上,就會(huì)極易產(chǎn)生重、特大交通事故，由此而導(dǎo)致的“二次事故”便成為了高速公路的一大殺手，高速公路二次事故的預(yù)防成為高速公路安全運(yùn)營的關(guān)鍵。為了避免二次事故的發(fā)生，一大任務(wù)也就落在了高速公路運(yùn)營管理者的身上：科學(xué)合理的分析路網(wǎng)環(huán)境下二次事故發(fā)生的影響因素，及時(shí)做好交通災(zāi)害預(yù)測(cè)以及高速公路二次事故的預(yù)防。 本文的研究思路是按照預(yù)警理論“明確警情—尋找警源—分析警兆—預(yù)報(bào)警度”，搜集資料并對(duì)比分析，總結(jié)國內(nèi)外關(guān)于路網(wǎng)環(huán)境下高速公路二次事故預(yù)警的研究現(xiàn)狀，以此為基礎(chǔ)，首先從高速公路二次事故預(yù)警的理論基礎(chǔ)、理論框架以及預(yù)警系統(tǒng)的構(gòu)建三個(gè)方面出發(fā)對(duì)預(yù)警體系的基礎(chǔ)理論進(jìn)行介紹，并針對(duì)交通流參數(shù)分析一次事故對(duì)交通的時(shí)空影響以及對(duì)路網(wǎng)的影響，剖析高速公路在常態(tài)條件和事故條件下的事故成因；其次，基于構(gòu)建指標(biāo)體系的原則，構(gòu)建二次事故預(yù)警指標(biāo)體系，并對(duì)各預(yù)警指標(biāo)進(jìn)行測(cè)算；再次，對(duì)指標(biāo)值的分布形式進(jìn)行分析，采用正態(tài)分布的3σ原理、對(duì)比分析以及專家調(diào)查等方法對(duì)各預(yù)警指標(biāo)的五個(gè)警限區(qū)間進(jìn)行設(shè)置，給出神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)方法下五個(gè)等級(jí)的對(duì)應(yīng)輸出向量；最后選擇BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)方法作為二次事故預(yù)警系統(tǒng)評(píng)價(jià)方法，建立二次預(yù)警的BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)預(yù)警模型，并研究預(yù)警信息的發(fā)布方法和復(fù)雜環(huán)境下的信息發(fā)布內(nèi)容，最后對(duì)不同的預(yù)警等級(jí)以及特殊重大交通事故分別研究管理策略。
[Abstract]:The construction of the expressway is the symbol of the modernization of the transportation industry. It has brought great economic and social benefits to people. But at the same time, it has also brought irreparable heavy property losses and casualties to its managers and users. With the continuous development of the economy, people's living standards are constantly improving, and on the basis of the diversification of the road forms of rapid development, Its travel modes are also beginning to be diversified, and people's travel environment is becoming more and more complex. Therefore, once there are traffic accidents on expressways under the complex road network environment, it is easy to produce heavy and serious traffic accidents. As a result, the "secondary accident" has become a major killer of the expressway, and the prevention of the secondary accident of the expressway has become the key to the safe operation of the highway. A major task also falls on the expressway operation manager: scientific and reasonable analysis of the impact factors of secondary accidents under the road network environment, timely traffic disaster prediction and highway secondary accident prevention. The research idea of this paper is to collect and compare the data according to the theory of early warning "clear alarm situation-search for warning source-analysis warning sign-warning degree", and summarize the current research situation of expressway secondary accident early warning under road network environment at home and abroad. Based on this, first of all, the basic theory of the early warning system is introduced from three aspects: the theoretical basis, the theoretical framework and the construction of the early-warning system. According to the traffic flow parameters analysis of a traffic accident on the traffic space and time impact and the impact on the road network, analyze the highway accident under the normal and accident conditions. Secondly, based on the principles of building an index system, The index system of secondary accident early warning is constructed, and each early warning index is measured. Thirdly, the distribution form of index value is analyzed, and the 3 蟽 principle of normal distribution is adopted. The corresponding output vectors of the five levels under the neural network method are given by setting the five warning limits of each early warning index by means of comparative analysis and expert investigation. Finally, the BP neural network method is selected as the evaluation method of the secondary accident early warning system, the BP neural network early warning model of the secondary early warning is established, and the method of issuing the early warning information and the content of the information release under the complex environment are studied. Finally, management strategies are studied for different warning levels and special major traffic accidents.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：長(zhǎng)安大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：U492.8

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