發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-01-31 08:27

  本文關(guān)鍵詞： 危險(xiǎn)品 運(yùn)輸路網(wǎng) 可靠性 減災(zāi)系統(tǒng) 博弈　出處：《西南交通大學(xué)》2013年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：由于危險(xiǎn)品具有易燃、易爆、毒害等特殊物理和化學(xué)特性,一旦承運(yùn)這些貨物的車輛在運(yùn)輸過程中發(fā)生泄漏、火災(zāi)或爆炸等事故,不僅會(huì)給事故沿線居民的生命健康和財(cái)產(chǎn)安全造成不可挽回的傷害,還有可能對(duì)周圍生態(tài)環(huán)境造成重大損失。因此,如何確保道路危險(xiǎn)品運(yùn)輸安全,降低事故風(fēng)險(xiǎn),對(duì)保障人民群眾生命財(cái)產(chǎn)安全及社會(huì)穩(wěn)定具有重要理論和實(shí)際意義。 論文首先對(duì)路網(wǎng)的可靠性以及危險(xiǎn)品運(yùn)輸路網(wǎng)的可靠性進(jìn)行分析,接著研究危險(xiǎn)品運(yùn)輸網(wǎng)絡(luò)可靠性失效的形成機(jī)理,以及影響危險(xiǎn)品運(yùn)輸路網(wǎng)可靠性的五個(gè)因素：人的不安全行為、危險(xiǎn)品理化特性、機(jī)械的不安全狀態(tài)、環(huán)境因素、安全管理因素,最后從預(yù)防的角度研究運(yùn)輸路徑的先期優(yōu)化原理。 研究危險(xiǎn)品運(yùn)輸過程中,政府相關(guān)的監(jiān)管部門與危險(xiǎn)品運(yùn)輸企業(yè)博弈問題。由于信息不對(duì)稱,在博弈過程中,政府與危險(xiǎn)品承運(yùn)人經(jīng)過多次博弈最后達(dá)到平衡。對(duì)危險(xiǎn)物品運(yùn)輸網(wǎng)絡(luò)的設(shè)計(jì)進(jìn)行了分析,政府和危險(xiǎn)品運(yùn)輸企業(yè)的雙層約束條件下,在此基礎(chǔ)上兼顧政府期望的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和危險(xiǎn)品運(yùn)輸企業(yè)期望的成本上不同的利益目標(biāo),建立一個(gè)雙層規(guī)劃模型,根據(jù)非合作博弈論的相關(guān)理論設(shè)計(jì)啟發(fā)式算法進(jìn)行求解。 危險(xiǎn)品運(yùn)輸路網(wǎng)破壞者和危險(xiǎn)品運(yùn)輸承運(yùn)人可靠性博弈模型,斯塔克伯格-納什模型和部分合作性博弈模型,對(duì)他們的聯(lián)系和功能進(jìn)行了分析和驗(yàn)證；給出在什么樣的情況下不合作博弈可以給出最壞情況下的解決方案；(1)破壞者進(jìn)行聯(lián)合后對(duì)危險(xiǎn)品運(yùn)輸路網(wǎng)出行成本可靠性的影響(2)如果在路網(wǎng)中加一條路線,所有用戶的期望出行成本和出行成本的可靠性都變得更糟的悖論現(xiàn)象；接著在通過從投資方面提高危險(xiǎn)品運(yùn)輸路網(wǎng)可靠性方面提出了一個(gè)二階段隨機(jī)規(guī)劃,第一階段找出需要投資的危險(xiǎn)品運(yùn)輸路段,第二階段危險(xiǎn)品運(yùn)輸路網(wǎng)中O D對(duì)之間的最小遍歷成本,可靠性成為了目標(biāo)函數(shù)的因子。利用最短路徑的算法把原來的問題推導(dǎo)成另外一種等價(jià)形式。通過放松對(duì)投資變量的整數(shù)限制和對(duì)泰勒展開式的應(yīng)用,得到一個(gè)多元線性函數(shù),即為投資邊際效益問題。 最后對(duì)危險(xiǎn)品發(fā)生事故后從人員疏散、車輛疏散、應(yīng)急物資調(diào)度優(yōu)化方面建立模型,并通過相關(guān)算法對(duì)模型進(jìn)行求解。
[Abstract]:Due to the flammable, explosive, toxic and other special physical and chemical characteristics of dangerous goods, once the transport of these goods in the transport of vehicles in the process of leakage, fire or explosion and other accidents. It will not only cause irreparable harm to residents' health and property safety along the accident, but also may cause serious losses to the surrounding ecological environment. Therefore, how to ensure the safety of dangerous goods transportation on roads. It is of great theoretical and practical significance to reduce the risk of accidents to ensure the safety of people's life and property and social stability. Firstly, the paper analyzes the reliability of the road network and the transportation network of dangerous goods, and then studies the forming mechanism of the reliability failure of the transportation network of dangerous goods. And five factors affecting the reliability of dangerous goods transportation network: unsafe behavior of human, physical and chemical characteristics of dangerous goods, unsafe state of machinery, environmental factors, safety management factors. Finally, the advance optimization principle of transportation route is studied from the point of view of prevention. In the process of dangerous goods transportation, the relevant government supervision department and the dangerous goods transportation enterprise game problem. Because of the information asymmetry, in the game process. The government and the carrier of dangerous goods have reached a balance after many games. The design of the transport network of dangerous goods is analyzed under the double constraint conditions of the government and the dangerous goods transportation enterprise. On the basis of this, a bilevel programming model is established, which takes into account the different benefit objectives of the government's expected risk and the expected cost of the dangerous goods transportation enterprises. A heuristic algorithm is designed to solve the problem according to the related theory of non-cooperative game theory. The reliability game model of destroyer and carrier of dangerous goods transportation network, Stackberg-Nash model and partial cooperative game model are analyzed and verified. The solution in the worst case can be given under what kind of situation uncooperative game can give; (1) the impact of saboteurs on the reliability of the travel cost of the dangerous goods transport network after a joint operation) if a route is added to the road network. The paradox that all users expect travel cost and travel cost reliability become worse; Then in the aspect of improving the reliability of dangerous goods transportation network from the aspect of investment, a two-stage stochastic programming is proposed. The first stage is to find out the section of dangerous goods transportation that needs investment. The minimum traversal cost between O-D pairs in the second stage of dangerous goods transport network. Reliability has become the factor of the objective function. The original problem is deduced into another equivalent form by using the shortest path algorithm. By relaxing the integer restriction on investment variables and the application of Taylor expansion. A multivariate linear function is obtained, that is, the problem of marginal benefit of investment. Finally, the model of evacuation from personnel, vehicle evacuation and emergency material scheduling optimization is established after the accident of dangerous goods, and the model is solved by relevant algorithms.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：U492.336.3;U492.8

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