本文關(guān)鍵詞：中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與水環(huán)境壓力脫鉤態(tài)勢(shì)評(píng)價(jià)與展望，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。

中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與水環(huán)境壓力脫鉤態(tài)勢(shì)評(píng)價(jià)與展望

EVALUATION AND PROSPECT ON THE DECOUPLING TREND OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND WATER ENVIRONMENT PRESSURE IN CHINA

[1] [2]

WU Dan, WANG Ya-hua （School of Public Policy Management,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China）

清華大學(xué)公共管理學(xué)院,北京100084}

文章摘要：在對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的水環(huán)境壓力概念進(jìn)行合理界定基礎(chǔ)上，建立經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與水環(huán)境壓力的脫鉤指標(biāo)體系。通過國(guó)內(nèi)外相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)研究與數(shù)據(jù)收集，，構(gòu)建了中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與水環(huán)境壓力的脫鉤潛力評(píng)價(jià)與時(shí)態(tài)分析模型，評(píng)價(jià)1986～2010年水利發(fā)展不同階段中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)總量增長(zhǎng)與廢水排放的脫鉤潛力與脫鉤時(shí)態(tài)、以及經(jīng)濟(jì)總量增長(zhǎng)與工業(yè)廢水化學(xué)需氧量的脫鉤時(shí)態(tài)。在此基礎(chǔ)上，根據(jù)水環(huán)境庫茨涅茨曲線變化趨勢(shì)，對(duì)我國(guó)廢水排放總量的自然發(fā)展趨勢(shì)進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)，并根據(jù)國(guó)家發(fā)展規(guī)劃對(duì)廢水排放總量預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果進(jìn)行修正。同時(shí)，結(jié)合國(guó)家發(fā)展規(guī)劃和環(huán)境保護(hù)規(guī)劃，對(duì)水環(huán)境壓力脫鉤進(jìn)行展望。結(jié)果表明，我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與廢水排放總量總體處于弱脫鉤發(fā)展態(tài)勢(shì)、與工業(yè)廢水化學(xué)需氧量排放總量總體處于強(qiáng)脫鉤發(fā)展態(tài)勢(shì)。預(yù)計(jì)2020年左右，我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與水環(huán)境壓力有望保持絕對(duì)脫鉤的發(fā)展態(tài)勢(shì)，水環(huán)境得到徹底改善與凈化。

Abstr：According to the literature research and data collection, the evaluation model of the decoupling potentiality is given, to analyze the decoupling trend of economic development and water environment pressure of water conservancy stages during 1986--2010, based on the IPAT model and elastic analysis method. The results show that the decoupling trend of economic development and wastewater total amount was weak generally, which was weak in the Seventh Five Year Plan period and Eight Five Year Plan period. Although the decoupling trend of economic development and wastewater total amount was weak in the Nine Five Year Plan period, the decoupling trend was not obvious. The wastewater discharge amount was further increased in the Ten Five Year Plan period and Eleven Five Year Plan period. It means that the wastewater discharge amount was not controlled strictly, and kept in the sustainable growth. The decoupling trend of economic development and COD of industrial wastewater experienced the process of ＂strong decoupling-weak decoupling-strong decoupling＂. The decoupling trend of economic development and COD of industrial wastewater was strong in the Seventh Five Year Plan period. Although the decoupling trend of economic development and COD of industrial wastewater was weak in the Eight Five Year Plan period, the decoupling trend of economic development and COD of industrial wastewater was strong in the Nine Five Year Plan period, Ten Five Year Plan period and Eleven Five Year Plan period. Generally,the decoupling trend of economic development and COD of industrial wastewater was strong, accorded with the situation of industrial modernization at present. In the process of economic development, the COD of industrial w

文章關(guān)鍵詞：

Keyword：:economic growth water environment pressure decoupling evaluation forecast

課題項(xiàng)目：國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目（70973064）;中國(guó)博士后科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目（2012M510035）;教育部人文社會(huì)科學(xué)研究青年基金項(xiàng)目（13YJCZH195）

作者信息：會(huì)員可見

  本文關(guān)鍵詞：中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與水環(huán)境壓力脫鉤態(tài)勢(shì)評(píng)價(jià)與展望，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。