【摘要】：運用系統(tǒng)動力學方法對伊春市資源環(huán)境與經濟相互關系進行仿真模擬,得到伊春市未來20年的發(fā)展趨勢。目前伊春的發(fā)展態(tài)勢未達到良好或優(yōu)質水平,社會經濟與資源環(huán)境協(xié)調發(fā)展仍存諸多問題,工業(yè)、林業(yè)的發(fā)展還需進一步鞏固與穩(wěn)定;基于持續(xù)發(fā)展取向,依據(jù)仿真結果設定了伊春市持續(xù)發(fā)展的常規(guī)發(fā)展模式、適度發(fā)展模式與經濟高速發(fā)展模式三種方案,篩查選取了適度發(fā)展模式作為伊春市未來20年發(fā)展的最佳方案,為實現(xiàn)方案順利實施,研究從人口、經濟、與資源環(huán)境三個方面提出伊春市發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略設計,有效調控發(fā)展走勢。
[Abstract]:The relationship between resources, environment and economy in Yichun City is simulated by system dynamics method, and the development trend of Yichun City in the next 20 years is obtained. At present, the development of Yichun has not reached a good or high quality level. There are still many problems in the coordinated development of social economy and resources and environment. The development of industry and forestry needs to be further consolidated and stabilized. Based on the orientation of sustainable development and the simulation results, this paper sets up three kinds of schemes for the sustainable development of Yichun, that is, the conventional development mode, the moderate development mode and the high-speed economic development mode. The appropriate development model is selected as the best plan for the development of Yichun City in the next 20 years. In order to realize the smooth implementation of the plan, the development strategy design of Yichun City is put forward from the aspects of population, economy, and resources and environment to effectively control the development trend.
【作者單位】： 哈爾濱師范大學地理科學學院;
【基金】：國家自然科學基金重點項目“基于生態(tài)約束的林業(yè)資源型城市經濟持續(xù)發(fā)展導控路徑研究——以伊春市為例”(編號:41171433)
【分類號】：F127;N941.3

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