【摘要】：自從加入WTO以來，中國的對外貿(mào)易高速發(fā)展，成為了中國經(jīng)濟騰飛的重要動力之一。但是，受貿(mào)易壁壘、本幣升值壓力、通貨膨脹壓力以及世界性金融危機等國內(nèi)外不利因素的影響，中國長期奉行的“出口導向型”貿(mào)易發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略已漸行漸遠。無論是從發(fā)展經(jīng)驗還是后金融危機時代的政策需要來看，中國都應從發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略的高度重視進口貿(mào)易的經(jīng)濟增長效應。 許多研究表明，進口貿(mào)易能夠從增加供給、創(chuàng)造需求等多方面直接或間接地推動經(jīng)濟增長。進口貿(mào)易對經(jīng)濟增長的影響因不同的資源稟賦而有所不同。我國地域遼闊，各省市經(jīng)濟發(fā)展水平差異很大，因而，在一個相對具體的區(qū)域內(nèi)，在相對穩(wěn)定的經(jīng)濟和政策條件下，研究一個地區(qū)進口貿(mào)易與經(jīng)濟增長的關(guān)系，更加符合一個地區(qū)的實際情況，更加有利于為一個地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展提供可靠的依據(jù)。統(tǒng)計資料顯示，2012年河北省人均GDP低于全國平均水平，進口貿(mào)易總額居全國各省第10位，這與它本身作為經(jīng)濟大省、沿海開放大省以及環(huán)渤海腹地的地位很不相符。因此，本文將研究的重點置于河北省進口貿(mào)易與經(jīng)濟增長的關(guān)系上。 本文在對相關(guān)貿(mào)易理論和國內(nèi)外實證案例進行了深入研究的基礎上，首先探析了進口貿(mào)易影響經(jīng)濟增長的機制原理和發(fā)生條件。其次，對河北省進口貿(mào)易與經(jīng)濟增長的相關(guān)性進行了測算，包括進口貿(mào)易對經(jīng)濟增長的貢獻度，進口總額、進口商品結(jié)構(gòu)、進口貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)與經(jīng)濟增長相關(guān)性的回歸分析。再次，通過構(gòu)建聯(lián)立方程模型的方法，從進口貿(mào)易對有效需求影響的角度實證分析了河北省進口貿(mào)易影響經(jīng)濟增長的機制。最后，根據(jù)實證分析結(jié)果，，結(jié)合河北省進口貿(mào)易的實際情況，提出了關(guān)于河北省進口貿(mào)易發(fā)展的4點對策建議。
[Abstract]:Since China's entry into WTO, the rapid development of China's foreign trade has become one of the important driving forces for China's economic take-off. However, under the influence of trade barriers, currency appreciation pressure, inflation pressure and the world financial crisis, China's long-term "export-oriented" trade development strategy has gradually gone away. No matter from the development experience or the policy needs of the post-financial crisis era, China should attach importance to the economic growth effect of import trade from the development strategy. Many studies show that import trade can directly or indirectly promote economic growth in many aspects, such as increasing supply and creating demand. The impact of import trade on economic growth varies with different resource endowments. China has a vast territory, and the level of economic development of various provinces and cities varies greatly. Therefore, in a relatively specific region, under relatively stable economic and policy conditions, the relationship between import trade and economic growth in a region is studied. More in line with the actual situation of a region, more conducive to the economic development of a region to provide a reliable basis. Statistics show that the per capita GDP of Hebei Province is lower than the national average in 2012, and the total import trade ranked 10th in the whole country, which is inconsistent with its status as a big economic province, a big coastal open province and a hinterland around the Bohai Sea. Therefore, this paper focuses on the relationship between Hebei import trade and economic growth. On the basis of deep research on relevant trade theory and domestic and foreign empirical cases, this paper first analyzes the mechanism and conditions of import trade affecting economic growth. Secondly, the correlation between import trade and economic growth in Hebei Province is measured, including the contribution of import trade to economic growth, the total import volume, the structure of import commodities, the regression analysis of the correlation between import trade structure and economic growth. Thirdly, by constructing the simultaneous equation model, this paper empirically analyzes the mechanism of Hebei import trade influencing economic growth from the perspective of the effect of import trade on effective demand. Finally, according to the results of empirical analysis, combined with the actual situation of Hebei import trade, this paper puts forward four countermeasures and suggestions on the development of Hebei import trade.
【學位授予單位】：河北大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F752.8;F127

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