發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-12-18 16:17

【摘要】：自美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家列昂剔夫創(chuàng)立投入產(chǎn)出表以來(lái),投入產(chǎn)出分析方法、投入產(chǎn)出表及其相應(yīng)的投入產(chǎn)出模型在全世界范圍內(nèi)得到了廣泛的應(yīng)用,且各國(guó)研究學(xué)者不斷對(duì)其進(jìn)行豐富與完善。我們可以在現(xiàn)有的投入產(chǎn)出表的基礎(chǔ)上,用其對(duì)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)各部門(mén)以及各部門(mén)之間的相互聯(lián)系、相互依賴(lài)關(guān)系進(jìn)行研究分析,得出各部門(mén)在國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)中的影響力和地位的變化,對(duì)產(chǎn)業(yè)政策的制定者正確制定相應(yīng)的產(chǎn)業(yè)政策提供較強(qiáng)的指導(dǎo)意義。 本文根據(jù)山東省2002年與2007年投入產(chǎn)出表,利用投入產(chǎn)出分析方法,對(duì)山東省29個(gè)產(chǎn)業(yè)部門(mén)之間進(jìn)行產(chǎn)業(yè)關(guān)聯(lián)定量分析,為山東省產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的升級(jí)與產(chǎn)業(yè)政策的制定提供參考。 在文章的第三部分,利用投入產(chǎn)出分析技術(shù)中的影響力系數(shù)、感應(yīng)度系數(shù)分析了山東省29個(gè)產(chǎn)業(yè)部門(mén)的產(chǎn)業(yè)波及效應(yīng)。研究結(jié)果表明,山東省農(nóng)業(yè)和傳統(tǒng)工業(yè)的比重均有所下降,其產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)正在向高級(jí)技術(shù)產(chǎn)業(yè)和第三產(chǎn)業(yè)為主的新型產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)變。在各部門(mén)對(duì)最終需求的變動(dòng)分析中,利用生產(chǎn)誘發(fā)額及其系數(shù),分析各部門(mén)的生產(chǎn)對(duì)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的生產(chǎn)誘導(dǎo)效應(yīng),我們可以看到,在山東省乃至全國(guó),城市居民與農(nóng)村居民的消費(fèi)仍存在一定的差距,但隨著我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的不斷發(fā)展,兩者的消費(fèi)水平均有了不同程度的提高,對(duì)第三產(chǎn)業(yè)的消費(fèi)需求與消費(fèi)比重在不斷的加大。最終需求對(duì)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的依賴(lài)度系數(shù)分析表明,山東省當(dāng)前經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng)對(duì)投資的依賴(lài)性較大,消費(fèi)拉動(dòng)所起的作用相對(duì)較導(dǎo)弱。國(guó)內(nèi)消費(fèi)需求的不足強(qiáng)化了經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)對(duì)外的依賴(lài)。在文章的第四部門(mén),利用SPSS軟件對(duì)29個(gè)產(chǎn)業(yè)部門(mén)經(jīng)濟(jì)力進(jìn)行因子分析,根據(jù)16個(gè)指標(biāo)對(duì)各部門(mén)的經(jīng)濟(jì)力進(jìn)行打分,從而確定各部門(mén)在山東省國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的作用與地位。
[Abstract]:Since the creation of the input-output table by American economist Leon Tiff, input-output analysis methods, input-output tables and their corresponding input-output models have been widely used all over the world. And scholars from all over the world continue to enrich and improve it. On the basis of the existing input-output table, we can use it to study and analyze the interrelation and interdependence of the various sectors of the national economy and to obtain the changes in the influence and position of the various sectors in the national economy. It provides a strong guiding significance for the industrial policy makers to make the corresponding industrial policy correctly. Based on the input-output tables of Shandong Province in 2002 and 2007, this paper makes quantitative analysis of industrial association among 29 industrial departments in Shandong Province by using the input-output analysis method, which provides a reference for upgrading the industrial structure and making industrial policies in Shandong Province. In the third part of the paper, the influence coefficient and the inductance coefficient in the input-output analysis technology are used to analyze the industrial ripple effect of 29 industrial departments in Shandong Province. The results show that the proportion of agriculture and traditional industry in Shandong Province has decreased, and the industrial structure is changing to a new type of industrial structure, which is dominated by advanced technology industry and tertiary industry. In the analysis of the change of final demand in various departments, we can see that in Shandong Province and even in the whole country, we can analyze the effect of production inducement on the national economy by using the production evoked amount and its coefficient. There is still a certain gap between the consumption of urban residents and rural residents, but with the continuous development of our economy, the consumption level of both has been improved in varying degrees, and the consumption demand and consumption proportion of the tertiary industry are constantly increasing. The analysis of the dependence coefficient of the final demand on the national economy shows that the current economic growth of Shandong Province is more dependent on investment, and the effect of consumption pulling is relatively weak. The shortage of domestic consumption demand has strengthened the external dependence of economic growth. In the fourth part of the article, the factor analysis of economic power of 29 industrial departments is carried out by using SPSS software, and the economic power of each department is graded according to 16 indexes, so as to determine the role and status of each department in the national economy of Shandong Province.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：青島科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F127;F223

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