【摘要】：經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)界一直以來都比較熱衷于研究消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的關(guān)系問題。然而，大多數(shù)是對該問題進(jìn)行規(guī)范分析,較少有人進(jìn)行實證分析,而且現(xiàn)有的實證分析主要集中于兩個問題:其一是關(guān)于消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級的影響；其二是關(guān)于產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的影響。把三者的關(guān)系割裂為兩個問題進(jìn)行研究，并不能如實地反映消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長之間的內(nèi)在關(guān)系�；诖�，本文把消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長三者之間的關(guān)系當(dāng)作一個系統(tǒng)，從理論和實際的角度，分析該系統(tǒng)內(nèi)部的作用機(jī)制，即三者內(nèi)在的本質(zhì)關(guān)系。 首先，本文從理論的角度分析，得出消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長兩兩之間具有相互影響、互為因果關(guān)系的結(jié)論。 然后，，選擇城鎮(zhèn)居民和農(nóng)村居民的恩格爾系數(shù)作為衡量消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)的指標(biāo)，選擇第二產(chǎn)業(yè)、第三產(chǎn)業(yè)在國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的比重作為衡量產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的指標(biāo)，選擇剔除價格因素之后的GDP的可比價作為衡量經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的指標(biāo)，以江蘇省為例，通過建立VECM模型，進(jìn)一步實證分析消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長之間的動態(tài)互動關(guān)系。 最終，協(xié)整檢驗證明江蘇省消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長之間存在長期的均衡關(guān)系；脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)和方差分解又進(jìn)一步闡釋了消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長之間的短期動態(tài)波動關(guān)系。 因此，理論分析和實證研究得出了一致結(jié)論：消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長兩兩之間存在雙向作用關(guān)系。消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)的調(diào)整，不僅能帶動產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級，而且還能進(jìn)一步促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長；同樣，產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的升級，在促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的同時，又反過來影響消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)的調(diào)整；而經(jīng)濟(jì)增長也同樣有助于消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)的調(diào)整和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的升級。
[Abstract]:Economists have been keen to study the relationship between consumption structure, industrial structure and economic growth. However, most of them are normative analysis of the problem, few people do empirical analysis, and the existing empirical analysis mainly focuses on two problems: one is about the impact of the adjustment of consumption structure on the upgrading of industrial structure; The second is about the impact of industrial structure upgrading on economic growth. The relationship between them is divided into two problems, which can not reflect the inner relationship between consumption structure, industrial structure and economic growth. Based on this, this paper regards the relationship among consumption structure, industrial structure and economic growth as a system. From the angle of theory and practice, this paper analyzes the internal action mechanism of the system, that is, the intrinsic essential relationship among the three. Firstly, from the perspective of theory, this paper draws the conclusion that the consumption structure, industrial structure and economic growth have mutual influence and cause and effect. Then, the Engel coefficient of urban and rural residents is chosen as the index to measure the consumption structure, the secondary industry and the proportion of the tertiary industry in the GDP as the index to measure the industrial structure. This paper selects the comparable price of GDP after excluding the price factor as the index to measure the economic growth. Taking Jiangsu Province as an example, through establishing the VECM model, the dynamic interaction among consumption structure, industrial structure and economic growth is analyzed empirically. Finally, the cointegration test proves that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship among consumption structure, industrial structure and economic growth in Jiangsu Province. Impulse response function and variance decomposition further explain the short-term dynamic fluctuation relationship among consumption structure, industrial structure and economic growth. Therefore, theoretical analysis and empirical research have reached a consistent conclusion: consumption structure, industrial structure and economic growth have a two-way relationship. The adjustment of consumption structure can not only promote the upgrading of industrial structure, but also further promote economic growth; similarly, the upgrading of industrial structure not only promotes economic growth, but also affects the adjustment of consumption structure. And economic growth is also helpful to the adjustment of consumption structure and upgrading of industrial structure.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F224;F126.1;F127;F279.2

【引證文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前1條

1 蘇大鵬;;安徽省產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、城鄉(xiāng)居民消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的實證分析[J];懷化學(xué)院學(xué)報;2015年08期

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