【摘要】：改革開放30多年來，中國經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展速度和水平以及綜合國力都迅速提高。但同時，由于宏觀區(qū)域政策的傾斜所帶來的人口和資本的流動，加上各地方自然區(qū)位條件及經(jīng)濟發(fā)展基礎不同，我國各地區(qū)經(jīng)濟發(fā)展狀況和水平呈現(xiàn)出極大的差別，因此區(qū)域差異成為學術(shù)界所關(guān)注的熱點問題。 為了探討我國區(qū)域重心的變化及其影響因素，筆者以改革開放以來（1978年-2010年）全國除香港、澳門和臺灣以外的31個省市自治區(qū)歷年的GDP總量、常住人口數(shù)量以及固定資產(chǎn)投資額數(shù)據(jù)作為基礎，另外通過測度改革開放以來主要的區(qū)域經(jīng)濟政策，以問卷調(diào)查的形式對各時期不同的區(qū)域政策根據(jù)其實施力度和涉及范圍的廣度分別評分，并設計了一套區(qū)域政策指數(shù)評價系統(tǒng)，將區(qū)域經(jīng)濟政策加以量化。然后根據(jù)上述GDP、人口、固定資產(chǎn)投資數(shù)據(jù)，利用重心公式，分別計算出從1978年以來中國經(jīng)濟重心、人口重心、固定資產(chǎn)投資重心以及區(qū)域政策重心的遷移情況。在此基礎上，首先分別分析了人口遷移與經(jīng)濟重心轉(zhuǎn)移之間的關(guān)系、固定資產(chǎn)投資轉(zhuǎn)移與經(jīng)濟重心轉(zhuǎn)移之間的關(guān)系以及區(qū)域政策傾斜對我國經(jīng)濟重心轉(zhuǎn)移的影響。其次，綜合人口、固定資產(chǎn)投資以及區(qū)域政策這三種對我國經(jīng)濟重心轉(zhuǎn)移有較大影響的因素，將三者綜合起來計算從1978年到2010年的綜合影響。包括其遷移狀況與實際經(jīng)濟重心遷移的狀況是否一致，從趨勢上觀察遠離還是趨近。最終得出結(jié)論：人口遷移、固定資產(chǎn)投資轉(zhuǎn)移以及區(qū)域政策的傾斜都對經(jīng)濟重心轉(zhuǎn)移有較大影響。但是，由于產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的調(diào)整，以勞動密集型為主的第二產(chǎn)業(yè)逐漸弱化，同時以知識密集型為主的第三產(chǎn)業(yè)開始發(fā)揮主導優(yōu)勢，由此而引起的人口遷移對象從之前的“民工潮”到現(xiàn)在的高技術(shù)人才，兩者遷移在方向和數(shù)量上都有較大區(qū)別，由此看出經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的區(qū)域差異影響人口重心的分布。另外區(qū)域政策的傾斜所帶動固定資產(chǎn)投資的轉(zhuǎn)移，能否使當?shù)亟?jīng)濟快速持續(xù)發(fā)展還取決于當?shù)氐慕?jīng)濟基礎和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)，這也解釋了為何在改革開放之初對東南沿海先行發(fā)展的傾斜區(qū)域政策及后來“西部大開發(fā)”、“中部崛起”等實行的效果有所差別。
[Abstract]:Over 30 years of reform and opening up, the speed and level of China's economic development and comprehensive national strength have improved rapidly. But at the same time, because of the migration of population and capital brought by the inclination of macro-regional policy, and the difference of local natural location conditions and economic development basis, the economic development status and level of different regions in China show great difference. Therefore, regional differences have become a hot issue in academic circles. In order to discuss the change of regional gravity center in China and its influencing factors, the total GDP of 31 provinces, cities and autonomous regions except Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan in the past years since the reform and opening up (1978 to 2010) has been studied. Based on the data on the number of resident population and the investment in fixed assets, in addition, through the measurement of the major regional economic policies since the reform and opening up, In the form of questionnaire survey, the different regional policies in different periods are graded according to their implementation intensity and scope, and a regional policy index evaluation system is designed to quantify the regional economic policies. Then according to the above data of GDP, population and fixed assets investment and using the barycenter formula the migration of China's economic center population center of gravity fixed asset investment center and regional policy center of gravity since 1978 has been calculated respectively. On this basis, the relationship between population migration and economic center of gravity transfer, the relationship between fixed asset investment transfer and economic center of gravity transfer, and the influence of regional policy inclination on the transfer of economic center of gravity are analyzed respectively. Secondly, comprehensive population, investment in fixed assets and regional policies are the three factors that have great influence on the shift of economic center of gravity in China. The three factors are combined to calculate the comprehensive impact from 1978 to 2010. It includes whether its migration is consistent with the actual economic center of gravity, and whether it is far away or approaching from the trend. Finally, it is concluded that population migration, fixed asset investment transfer and the inclination of regional policies all have great influence on the shift of economic center of gravity. However, due to the adjustment of the industrial structure, the secondary industry, which is mainly labor-intensive, is gradually weakened, and the third industry, which is mainly knowledge-intensive, has begun to play a leading role. The population migration objects caused by them are different in direction and quantity from the previous "civil labor tide" to the present high-tech talents. It can be seen that the regional difference of economic development affects the distribution of population center of gravity. In addition, the tilt of regional policies has led to the transfer of fixed assets investment, and whether the rapid and sustainable development of the local economy depends on the local economic base and industrial structure. This also explains why the preferential regional policy for the first development of the southeast coast at the beginning of the reform and opening up policy and the later implementation of "the Great Development of the West" and "the rise of the Central China" have different effects.
【學位授予單位】：上海交通大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F124

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