中國跨越“中等收入陷阱”進程中的消費率研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-09-05 07:43
【摘要】：改革開放以來,我國經濟持續(xù)近30年的高速增長,受到世界的矚目。2010年中國人均GDP為4433美元,進入中上等收入階段。因此,目前面臨的最大問題之一就是能否成功地實現由中等收入國家向高收入國家的轉變,避免“中等收入陷阱”�？缭健爸械仁杖胂葳濉钡暮诵氖墙洕鲩L問題,我國能否繼續(xù)高速增長的態(tài)勢,受到社會各界的關注。我國作為發(fā)展中的大國,擴大內需、拉動消費,走向消費主導的經濟轉型,既是短期政策的著力點,又是中長期的戰(zhàn)略選擇。2012年黨的十八大報告中指出,加快形成新的經濟增長方式,把推動發(fā)展的立足點轉到提高質量和效益上來,著力增強創(chuàng)新驅動發(fā)展新動力,著力培育開放型經濟發(fā)展新優(yōu)勢,使經濟發(fā)展更多依靠內需特別是消費需求拉動,不斷增強長期發(fā)展后勁。顯然,我國要順利跨越“中等收入陷阱”,應以消費主導引領發(fā)展方式轉變,走出一條公平和可持續(xù)的科學發(fā)展之路。 消費率是表征最終消費支出在總需求中份額的結構性指標,消費率高低是整體經濟運行狀況的直觀反映,對宏觀經濟政策的制定具有指導性作用。按主體的不同,消費率包括居民消費率和政府消費率,居民消費率和政府消費率相互作用,共同影響著消費率的變動趨勢。2001年,我國進入中等收入階段,消費率尤其是居民消費率呈直線下降趨勢,消費率的啟動是擴大內需的關鍵。 本文以經濟增長理論和消費理論為指導,全面梳理了經濟增長和消費的密切關系。在理論上,探討了消費對跨越“中等收入陷阱”的影響路徑。結合錢納里—賽爾昆消費率標準,分析“中等收入陷阱”區(qū)間消費率與人均GDP的關系。在此基礎上,本文進一步分析“中等收入陷阱”區(qū)間消費率變動的趨勢,并與我國消費率變動的趨勢相比較,探討我國消費率的合理區(qū)間,運用實證分析和數量分析方法,剖析居民消費率和政府消費率的關系,借鑒國際的成功經驗,從政府消費影響居民消費的視角,提出在消費主導中避免“中等收入陷阱”的政策建議。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has been growing at a high speed for nearly 30 years, which has attracted worldwide attention. In 2010, China's per capita GDP was 4433 US dollars, entering the middle and upper income stage. Therefore, one of the biggest problems is whether the transition from middle-income to high-income countries can be successfully carried out and the "middle-income trap" can be avoided. The core of crossing the "middle income trap" is the problem of economic growth. As a large developing country, expanding domestic demand, stimulating consumption, and moving towards a consumption-led economic transformation are not only the focus of short-term policies, but also the medium and long-term strategic choices. In the report of the 18th National Congress of the CPC in 2012, it was pointed out that Speed up the formation of a new mode of economic growth, shift the foothold for promoting development to improving quality and efficiency, strive to strengthen the new impetus for innovation and drive development, and strive to foster new advantages in the development of an open economy. To make economic development more dependent on domestic demand, especially consumer demand pull, and constantly enhance long-term development stamina. Obviously, in order to cross the "middle income trap" smoothly, our country should lead the way of development by taking the lead of consumption, and walk out a fair and sustainable road of scientific development. Consumption rate is a structural index to represent the share of final consumption expenditure in total demand. Consumption rate is an intuitive reflection of the overall economic operation and has a guiding role in the formulation of macroeconomic policy. According to the main body, the consumption rate includes the consumption rate of the residents and the government, the interaction of the consumption rate and the consumption rate of the government, which affects the changing trend of the consumption rate. In 2001, China entered the middle income stage. The consumption rate, especially the resident consumption rate, is in a downward trend, and the start of the consumption rate is the key to expand domestic demand. Under the guidance of economic growth theory and consumption theory, this paper comprehensively combs the close relationship between economic growth and consumption. In theory, the paper discusses the influence of consumption on crossing the middle-income trap. The relationship between the consumption rate of middle income trap and per capita GDP is analyzed by combining with the standard of Chanari-Selkun consumption rate. On this basis, this paper further analyzes the trend of the change of consumption rate in the "middle income trap" interval, and compares it with the trend of the change of consumption rate in China, and probes into the reasonable interval of consumption rate in our country, and applies the method of empirical analysis and quantitative analysis. This paper analyzes the relationship between resident consumption rate and government consumption rate, draws lessons from international successful experience, and from the perspective of government consumption influencing resident consumption, puts forward some policy suggestions to avoid "middle income trap" in consumption-oriented.
【學位授予單位】：福建師范大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F126.1;F124.7
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has been growing at a high speed for nearly 30 years, which has attracted worldwide attention. In 2010, China's per capita GDP was 4433 US dollars, entering the middle and upper income stage. Therefore, one of the biggest problems is whether the transition from middle-income to high-income countries can be successfully carried out and the "middle-income trap" can be avoided. The core of crossing the "middle income trap" is the problem of economic growth. As a large developing country, expanding domestic demand, stimulating consumption, and moving towards a consumption-led economic transformation are not only the focus of short-term policies, but also the medium and long-term strategic choices. In the report of the 18th National Congress of the CPC in 2012, it was pointed out that Speed up the formation of a new mode of economic growth, shift the foothold for promoting development to improving quality and efficiency, strive to strengthen the new impetus for innovation and drive development, and strive to foster new advantages in the development of an open economy. To make economic development more dependent on domestic demand, especially consumer demand pull, and constantly enhance long-term development stamina. Obviously, in order to cross the "middle income trap" smoothly, our country should lead the way of development by taking the lead of consumption, and walk out a fair and sustainable road of scientific development. Consumption rate is a structural index to represent the share of final consumption expenditure in total demand. Consumption rate is an intuitive reflection of the overall economic operation and has a guiding role in the formulation of macroeconomic policy. According to the main body, the consumption rate includes the consumption rate of the residents and the government, the interaction of the consumption rate and the consumption rate of the government, which affects the changing trend of the consumption rate. In 2001, China entered the middle income stage. The consumption rate, especially the resident consumption rate, is in a downward trend, and the start of the consumption rate is the key to expand domestic demand. Under the guidance of economic growth theory and consumption theory, this paper comprehensively combs the close relationship between economic growth and consumption. In theory, the paper discusses the influence of consumption on crossing the middle-income trap. The relationship between the consumption rate of middle income trap and per capita GDP is analyzed by combining with the standard of Chanari-Selkun consumption rate. On this basis, this paper further analyzes the trend of the change of consumption rate in the "middle income trap" interval, and compares it with the trend of the change of consumption rate in China, and probes into the reasonable interval of consumption rate in our country, and applies the method of empirical analysis and quantitative analysis. This paper analyzes the relationship between resident consumption rate and government consumption rate, draws lessons from international successful experience, and from the perspective of government consumption influencing resident consumption, puts forward some policy suggestions to avoid "middle income trap" in consumption-oriented.
【學位授予單位】：福建師范大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F126.1;F124.7
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