【摘要】：貿(mào)易開放與經(jīng)濟增長的關系一直是經(jīng)濟學家的重點研究領域之一,經(jīng)濟學者們從多個角度運用不同的方法和數(shù)據(jù)等對此進行了深入的理論探討和實證分析。其中從貿(mào)易開放度影響經(jīng)濟增長的角度進行的分析就是一個重要的切入點。自1978年改革開放以來,中國的對外貿(mào)易和經(jīng)濟發(fā)展都取得了突出的進展,數(shù)據(jù)顯示2012年中國國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值達到519322億元,折合82502.41億美元,進出口貿(mào)易總額為38667.6億美元,而與此鮮明的對比是1978年兩項指標僅分別為3645.2億元和206.4億美元。三十余年來中國的經(jīng)濟一直維持了世所矚目的高速增長,1979至2012年年均增速為9.8%,而同時期中國貿(mào)易進出口額的增長更為突出,年均增長率達到了13.23%,顯然在貿(mào)易開放與經(jīng)濟增長間應該存在著密切的關聯(lián)。本文正是在此背景下探尋貿(mào)易開放度與我國經(jīng)濟增長間的關系,以期找到貿(mào)易開放度作用于經(jīng)濟增長的長期機制。 本文首先回顧了相關的理論,包括貿(mào)易開放及經(jīng)濟增長理論,然后對國內(nèi)外有關貿(mào)易開放度指標確定的文獻進行了梳理,在此基礎上有針對性的選擇一個包括了服務貿(mào)易開放度和貨物貿(mào)易開放度的指標,文章還對全球網(wǎng)絡化生產(chǎn)背景下貿(mào)易影響經(jīng)濟增長機制的新特點進行了論述,為文章的實證分析提供理論說明。其次文章利用統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)描繪了1982-2011年間我國經(jīng)濟增長、貿(mào)易開放度的宏觀情況,并對貿(mào)易開放度的內(nèi)部結(jié)構進行了解釋說明。然后文章進入到計量分析部分,先對各時間變量序列進行單位根檢驗,考察變量的平穩(wěn)性,發(fā)現(xiàn)變量均為同階單整后,接著運用Johansen檢驗進行協(xié)整分析,具體的給出貿(mào)易開放度與經(jīng)濟增長之間的長期均衡關系式并給出了經(jīng)濟意義解讀,然后進行格蘭杰因果檢驗,說明貿(mào)易開放度與經(jīng)濟增長間的單向或者雙向格蘭杰因果關系,最后利用脈沖響應函數(shù)圖對貿(mào)易開放度影響經(jīng)濟增長的動態(tài)情況進行分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)貿(mào)易開放度對經(jīng)濟增長的沖擊作用存在一定的波動性。文章又深入的考察了貨物貿(mào)易開放度和服務貿(mào)易開放度對經(jīng)濟增長的計量分析。本文最后提出優(yōu)化外貿(mào)結(jié)構,注重推進服務貿(mào)易的開放及發(fā)展,注重加強自主創(chuàng)新能力的建設等促進經(jīng)濟增長的具體措施和建議。
[Abstract]:The relationship between trade opening and economic growth has always been one of the key research fields of economists, which has been deeply discussed and empirically analyzed by economists from many angles using different methods and data. The analysis of the influence of trade openness on economic growth is an important entry point. Since the reform and opening up in 1978, China's foreign trade and economic development have made remarkable progress. Data show that in 2012, China's GDP reached 51.9322 trillion yuan, equivalent to 8.250241 trillion US dollars, and the total import and export trade amounted to 3.86676 trillion US dollars. By contrast, in 1978 the two indicators were only $364.52 billion and $20.64 billion, respectively. For more than 30 years, China's economy has maintained a remarkable high growth rate. The average annual growth rate between 1979 and 2012 was 9.8%, and the growth of China's trade, import and export volume during the same period was even more prominent. With an annual growth rate of 13.23, it is clear that there should be a close relationship between trade openness and economic growth. In this context, this paper explores the relationship between trade openness and China's economic growth in order to find out the long-term mechanism of trade openness acting on economic growth. This paper first reviews the relevant theories, including trade opening and economic growth theory, and then reviews the domestic and foreign literature on the determination of trade openness index. On the basis of this, we choose a new index which includes the open degree of trade in services and open degree of trade in goods. The paper also discusses the new characteristics of trade affecting economic growth mechanism under the background of global networked production. To provide theoretical explanation for the empirical analysis of the article. Secondly, using statistical data, this paper describes the macro situation of China's economic growth and trade openness from 1982 to 2011, and explains the internal structure of trade openness. Then the article enters the econometric analysis part, first carries on the unit root test to each time variable sequence, inspects the variable stationarity, discovers the variable all is the same order single integral, then uses the Johansen test to carry on the cointegration analysis. The long-term equilibrium relationship between trade openness and economic growth is given, and the interpretation of economic significance is given. Then Granger causality test is carried out to illustrate the one-way or two-way Granger causality between trade openness and economic growth. Finally, the impulse response function diagram is used to analyze the dynamic situation of trade openness affecting economic growth, and it is found that the impact of trade openness on economic growth has some volatility. The article also investigates the econometric analysis of the open degree of goods trade and service trade on economic growth. Finally, this paper puts forward some concrete measures and suggestions to promote economic growth, such as optimizing the structure of foreign trade, promoting the opening and development of service trade, and strengthening the construction of independent innovation ability.
【學位授予單位】：南京大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F124.1;F752.0

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