【摘要】：受金融危機(jī)的沖擊，外需急劇萎縮，我國(guó)依賴出口和投資的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)方式已經(jīng)不能滿足現(xiàn)階段發(fā)展需求。此時(shí)，拉動(dòng)內(nèi)需、擴(kuò)大區(qū)域消費(fèi)成為經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整、提高經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展質(zhì)量和效益的重點(diǎn)。人口作為經(jīng)濟(jì)生活的主體和基本單位，在擴(kuò)大消費(fèi)中的意義日益突出。不論是人口數(shù)量的大小、人口質(zhì)量的高低，還是人口結(jié)構(gòu)的優(yōu)劣，都直接或間接地影響著區(qū)域消費(fèi)增長(zhǎng)。 本文在現(xiàn)有消費(fèi)理論的基礎(chǔ)之上，從人口學(xué)角度分析區(qū)域消費(fèi)的影響因素。通過(guò)對(duì)搜集到的2000年至2010年全國(guó)31個(gè)省、市、自治區(qū)的面板數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行分析，可以得到我國(guó)現(xiàn)有區(qū)域消費(fèi)水平整體呈上升趨勢(shì)，但隨著時(shí)間推移，區(qū)域間的消費(fèi)水平差異逐漸拉大。通過(guò)對(duì)人口變量與區(qū)域消費(fèi)逐一作相關(guān)性分析，發(fā)現(xiàn)各人口變量與區(qū)域消費(fèi)之間均存在顯著相關(guān)性。2000-2010年間人口數(shù)量一直保持增長(zhǎng)的態(tài)勢(shì)，伴隨人口轉(zhuǎn)變，城市化水平的深入，老齡化程度的加重，人口變動(dòng)是如何影響區(qū)域消費(fèi)水平的變化成為本文的研究重點(diǎn)。 借助Eviews6.0軟件，本文對(duì)區(qū)域消費(fèi)函數(shù)進(jìn)行探究。結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)在不同人口因素中，城市化水平、人口受教育程度、外來(lái)人口流入率以及勞動(dòng)力人口對(duì)區(qū)域消費(fèi)的影響是顯著的，也就是說(shuō)人口因素作用在區(qū)域消費(fèi)水平上的影響是顯著的。除此之外，人口因素對(duì)不同地區(qū)的區(qū)域消費(fèi)水平的影響程度存在差異，，這種區(qū)域差異的狀態(tài)是由區(qū)域間的人口效應(yīng)的差異造成的。 通過(guò)分析得到如下結(jié)論：區(qū)域人口城市化滯后發(fā)展阻礙區(qū)域消費(fèi)內(nèi)需擴(kuò)大；教育水平參差不齊減緩區(qū)域消費(fèi)模式優(yōu)化；人口流動(dòng)集聚效應(yīng)帶動(dòng)區(qū)域消費(fèi)水平提高，應(yīng)當(dāng)充分利用區(qū)域間年齡結(jié)構(gòu)差異發(fā)揮區(qū)域消費(fèi)優(yōu)勢(shì)。因此我們建議，提高區(qū)域消費(fèi)水平應(yīng)當(dāng)從深化城市化水平、提高人口素質(zhì)、加快區(qū)域間人口流動(dòng)以及積極發(fā)展老年人產(chǎn)業(yè)等幾方面入手，通過(guò)擴(kuò)大區(qū)域內(nèi)部需求來(lái)推動(dòng)區(qū)域消費(fèi)水平增長(zhǎng)，同時(shí)反過(guò)來(lái)促進(jìn)人口的健康、均衡、長(zhǎng)期發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:Under the impact of the financial crisis, the external demand shrinks sharply, and the economic growth mode, which depends on export and investment, can no longer meet the development demand at the present stage. At this time, stimulating domestic demand, expanding regional consumption has become the focus of economic restructuring and improving the quality and efficiency of economic development. As the main body and basic unit of economic life, population is becoming more and more important in expanding consumption. Whether the size of population, the quality of population, or the quality of population structure, directly or indirectly affect the growth of regional consumption. Based on the existing consumption theory, this paper analyzes the influencing factors of regional consumption from the perspective of demography. By analyzing the panel data collected from 2000 to 2010 in 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions in China, we can find that the overall consumption level of our country's existing regions is on the rise, but with the passage of time, Regional differences in consumption levels are gradually widening. By analyzing the correlation between population variables and regional consumption, it is found that there is a significant correlation between population variables and regional consumption. With the aggravation of the aging degree, how the population change affects the regional consumption level becomes the focus of this paper. With the help of Eviews6.0 software, this paper explores the regional consumption function. The results showed that among the different population factors, the urbanization level, the education level of the population, the inflow rate of the foreign population and the labor force had significant effects on the regional consumption. That is to say, the effect of population factors on the level of regional consumption is significant. In addition, the degree of influence of population factors on regional consumption level is different, and the status of regional difference is caused by the difference of population effect between regions. The conclusions are as follows: the lagging development of regional population urbanization hinders the expansion of regional consumption domestic demand; the uneven educational level slows down the optimization of regional consumption pattern; the agglomeration effect of population mobility leads to the improvement of regional consumption level. We should make full use of regional age structure differences to give play to the advantages of regional consumption. Therefore, we suggest that the improvement of regional consumption should start with deepening the urbanization level, improving the quality of the population, speeding up the flow of population among regions, and actively developing the industry of the elderly. The regional consumption level is increased by expanding the internal demand of the region, which in turn promotes the healthy, balanced and long-term development of the population.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：河北大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：C924.2;F126.1

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