本文選題：人口預(yù)測 + 土地資源承載力�。� 參考：《長江流域資源與環(huán)境》2014年08期

【摘要】：在經(jīng)濟發(fā)達地區(qū)資源環(huán)境約束趨緊和經(jīng)濟發(fā)展轉(zhuǎn)型背景下,開展人口規(guī)模預(yù)測研究對協(xié)調(diào)人口、資源、經(jīng)濟之間的關(guān)系具有積極意義。以無錫市區(qū)為例,核算土地資源人口承載力與不同時間階段經(jīng)濟合理人口規(guī)模,分析土地資源人口承載量與經(jīng)濟合理人口規(guī)模之間的關(guān)系,解析未來人口發(fā)展趨勢和影響因素。結(jié)果表明:無錫市區(qū)人口仍將穩(wěn)步增加,外來人口仍將是常住人口增量的主體,但增速趨緩;2015、2020年經(jīng)濟合理人口分別約為404萬和434萬人,逐漸超出土地資源承載力所確定的402萬人的合理人口規(guī)模;經(jīng)濟增長引起的就業(yè)人口的需求增長是導(dǎo)致人口總量增長的主要因素。未來需要通過產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整、勞動生產(chǎn)率提升、公共服務(wù)設(shè)施完善等手段調(diào)控人口發(fā)展,以減輕資源環(huán)境壓力和保障經(jīng)濟發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:Under the background of tight resource and environment restriction and economic development in developed regions, it is of great significance to coordinate the relationship among population, resources and economy to carry out population scale prediction. Taking Wuxi urban area as an example, this paper calculates the population carrying capacity of land resources and the reasonable economic population scale at different time stages, analyzes the relationship between the population carrying capacity of land resources and the rational population scale of economy, and analyzes the future population development trend and influencing factors. The results show that the population of Wuxi urban area will increase steadily, and the population of foreign population will still be the main part of the increment of resident population, but the growth rate will slow down to 2015, and the reasonable economic population in 2020 will be about 404,000 and 4.34 million, respectively. It gradually exceeds the reasonable population scale of 4.02 million people determined by the carrying capacity of land resources, and the demand growth of the employed population caused by the economic growth is the main factor leading to the total population growth. In the future, it is necessary to adjust and control population development by means of adjusting industrial structure, improving labor productivity and perfecting public service facilities in order to alleviate the pressure of resources and environment and to ensure economic development.
【作者單位】： 中國科學(xué)院南京地理與湖泊研究所;
【基金】：國家自然科學(xué)基金重點項目(41130750) 中國科學(xué)院重點部署項目(KZZD-EW-06-03) 中國科學(xué)院南京地理與湖泊研究所青年人才基金項目(NIGLAS2011QD03)
【分類號】：C924.2;F127

【相似文獻】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前2條

1 段學(xué)軍;陳雯;許剛;孫偉;;經(jīng)濟—生態(tài)導(dǎo)向的城市人口空間分布優(yōu)化——以無錫市區(qū)為例[J];長江流域資源與環(huán)境;2008年05期

2 童凱;無錫市區(qū)人口的增長與人口問題[J];人口與經(jīng)濟;1988年03期

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 馬穎億;1990年以來江蘇省人口空間格局與演化機理研究[D];南京師范大學(xué);2012年

，

本文編號：2085512