發(fā)布時間：2018-06-29 23:52

  本文選題：消費結(jié)構(gòu) + 食品價格　； 參考：《吉林大學》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：消費問題是許多國家都高度重視的問題。中國是人口大國，居民消費需求的增長可以很大程度上促進生產(chǎn)規(guī)模的擴大，促進經(jīng)濟持續(xù)快速健康發(fā)展。城鎮(zhèn)居民的消費支出占全國居民消費總支出的比重很大，在2011年達到77.3%。近幾年隨著通貨膨脹壓力的加劇，食品價格不斷上升，又進一步帶動通貨膨脹，在這樣的經(jīng)濟環(huán)境影響下，我國城鎮(zhèn)居民消費結(jié)構(gòu)會受到怎樣的影響成為值得關注的問題。一般來說，，城鎮(zhèn)居民的消費結(jié)構(gòu)用居民各類消費品支出的份額表示。食品價格波動會對我國城鎮(zhèn)居民消費結(jié)構(gòu)產(chǎn)生怎樣的影響，對這一問題的研究將有助于及時掌握居民消費需求熱點，制定合理政策，提高居民生活水平，有效刺激內(nèi)需，促進經(jīng)濟健康發(fā)展，這是我國當前及今后都要面臨的課題，也是社會發(fā)展過程中必須要解決的問題。 本文理論與實證分析相結(jié)合，通過ELES模型、協(xié)整關系檢驗、方差分解分析，使用Eviews6.0經(jīng)濟分析軟件對我國城鎮(zhèn)居民消費結(jié)構(gòu)進行研究與探討。得出了關于食品價格在短期和長期中影響我國城鎮(zhèn)居民消費結(jié)構(gòu)的結(jié)論。在短期中，以2011年為樣本期間，進行價格彈性分析，結(jié)果顯示我國城鎮(zhèn)居民消費結(jié)構(gòu)中各類消費品對食品價格的交叉彈性為負值，這說明，食品價格上漲在短期內(nèi)會對居民的消費需求產(chǎn)生擠出效應。而在長期中，采用1996—2011年的數(shù)據(jù)進行實證分析，結(jié)果顯示除衣著類和家庭設備用品服務類外，其他類消費品都與食品價格呈現(xiàn)出負相關關系，這是因為，隨著生活水平的提高，衣著類和家庭設備用品服務類逐漸成為了人們的生活必需品，具有一定的需求剛性，即使食品價格上升，也不會降低對這兩類消費品的支出，相反會因為價格水平的上漲而出現(xiàn)消費支出增加的趨勢，同時也表明了我國居民消費能力得到了提高。 本文主要分為以下幾個部分： 第一部分闡述了文章的選題背景與意義，介紹國內(nèi)外學者關于消費結(jié)構(gòu)各個方面的研究現(xiàn)狀以及本文的主要框架。 第二部分介紹相關的理論以及本文中實證部分所用的幾個研究方法。具體包括價格效應的理論依據(jù)、單位根檢驗、協(xié)整理論、VEC模型和方差分解。 第三部分以2011年數(shù)據(jù)為樣本期間，通過ELES模型進行實證分析，得出我國城鎮(zhèn)居民各類消費支出的邊際消費傾向、自價格彈性、交叉價格彈性以及收入彈性。 第四部分基于1996——2011年的數(shù)據(jù)，實證研究了食品價格波動對我國城鎮(zhèn)居民消費結(jié)構(gòu)的影響，結(jié)果表明，食品價格波動對我國城鎮(zhèn)居民消費支出有長期影響，且對每類消費支出產(chǎn)生不同的沖擊貢獻率。 文章最后是本文的結(jié)論及相關對策建議。
[Abstract]:Consumption is a problem that many countries attach great importance to. China is a populous country. The growth of consumer demand can greatly promote the expansion of production scale and the sustained, rapid and healthy development of the economy. Urban residents' consumption expenditure accounted for a large proportion of the country's total consumption expenditure, reaching 77.3 percent in 2011. In recent years, with the aggravation of the inflationary pressure, the food price is rising constantly, and further driving the inflation. Under the influence of such economic environment, how to affect the consumption structure of the urban residents in our country becomes a problem worth paying attention to. In general, the consumption structure of urban residents is expressed by the share of consumer expenditure. What kind of impact will food price fluctuation have on the consumption structure of urban residents in our country? the study on this issue will help us to grasp the hot spots of residents' consumption demand in time, formulate reasonable policies, improve residents' living standards, and effectively stimulate domestic demand. To promote the healthy development of economy is a subject that our country must face at present and in the future, and it is also a problem that must be solved in the course of social development. This paper combines the theory with the empirical analysis, through the Eles model, cointegration test, variance decomposition analysis, using Eviews6.0 economic analysis software to study and discuss the consumption structure of urban residents in China. The conclusion is drawn that the food price affects the consumption structure of urban residents in the short and long term. In the short term, during the sample period of 2011, the price elasticity analysis shows that the cross-elasticity of all kinds of consumer goods to food prices in the consumption structure of urban residents in China is negative. Higher food prices will have an crowding out effect on consumer demand in the short term. In the long run, empirical analysis using data from 1996 to 2011 shows that, except for the categories of clothing and household equipment and services, there is a negative correlation between other categories of consumer goods and food prices, because, With the improvement of living standards, clothing and household equipment services have gradually become the necessities of life, with certain demand rigidity. Even if food prices rise, it will not reduce the expenditure on these two categories of consumer goods. On the contrary, there will be an increase in consumer expenditure due to the rise of the price level, and it also shows that the consumption ability of Chinese residents has been improved. This paper is divided into the following parts: the first part describes the background and significance of the article, introduces the domestic and foreign scholars on the consumption structure of various aspects of research and the main framework of this paper. The second part introduces the relevant theories and several research methods used in the empirical part of this paper. It includes the theoretical basis of price effect, unit root test, cointegration theory, VEC model and variance decomposition. The third part takes 2011 data as the sample period, through the Eles model carries on the empirical analysis, obtains our country urban resident each kind of consumption expenditure marginal consumption tendency, the self-price elasticity, the cross-price elasticity and the income elasticity. The fourth part, based on the data from 1996 to 2011, empirically studies the impact of food price fluctuation on the consumption structure of urban residents in China. The results show that food price fluctuation has a long-term impact on the consumption expenditure of urban residents in China. And to each kind of consumer expenditure produces the different impact contribution rate. The last part of the article is the conclusion of this paper and the relevant countermeasures and suggestions.
【學位授予單位】：吉林大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F224;F126.1;F726

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本文編號：2083913