本文選題：歐元區(qū) + 經濟周期　； 參考：《復旦大學》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：歐元區(qū)的設立是根據(jù)Mundell提出的最優(yōu)通貨區(qū)的理論發(fā)展出來的。在開始階段,歐元區(qū)的實踐曾取得非常出色的經濟表現(xiàn),在21世紀初歐元區(qū)對成員國和世界主要經濟體的經濟發(fā)展都做出了重大的貢獻。歐債危機爆發(fā)后,歐元區(qū)對受危機影響的歐元區(qū)國家的救助遲遲達不成共識。隨后越來越多的歐元區(qū)國家被卷入了此次危機。這場歐債危機使得人們對于歐元區(qū)的經濟周期協(xié)動程度產生了興趣,在危機前,歐元區(qū)各成員國是否已經出現(xiàn)經濟協(xié)動程度增強的現(xiàn)象?如果是的話,這個現(xiàn)象又是由什么原因造成的?為了解答這些問題,本文試圖從貿易深化、統(tǒng)一的貨幣政策和更為整合的金融市場,以及財政協(xié)調三個方面對歐元區(qū)成立前后成員國協(xié)動程度變化的內在邏輯進行分析,并提出理論假設。本文以瑞典、英國、美國、日本這四個在地理位置、貿易結構或者經濟聯(lián)系與歐元區(qū)經濟體比較接近的區(qū)外國家作為參照來研究歐元區(qū)設立前后其第一批成員國的經濟周期協(xié)動程度的變化,驗證了根據(jù)理論推導得出假設。本文發(fā)現(xiàn)盡管受全球經濟一體化的影響,各主要經濟體經濟周期協(xié)動性都出現(xiàn)不同程度地提高,但在歐元區(qū)成立之后,其成員國經濟周期協(xié)動程度明顯增強,并出現(xiàn)向以德國為首的核心組國家不斷趨近的趨勢。最后,本文根據(jù)歐元區(qū)的實踐和經驗,對未來東亞地區(qū)可能的一體化提出了相應的政策建議。
[Abstract]:The creation of the euro zone is based on Mundell's theory of an optimal currency area. In the beginning, the practice of the euro zone has achieved a very good economic performance, and at the beginning of the 21st century, the euro zone has made a great contribution to the economic development of member countries and the major economies of the world. In the wake of the European debt crisis, the euro zone's rescue of euro zone countries affected by the crisis has been slow to reach consensus. A growing number of euro zone countries were subsequently involved in the crisis. The crisis has generated interest in the extent of the eurozone's economic cycle, and before the crisis, has the eurozone's member states seen an increase in economic coordination? If so, what is the cause of this phenomenon? In order to answer these questions, this paper attempts to analyze the internal logic of the changes in the degree of cooperation between member countries before and after the establishment of the euro zone from three aspects: deepening trade, unified monetary policy and more integrated financial markets, and fiscal coordination. And put forward the theoretical hypothesis. This paper uses Sweden, the United Kingdom, the United States and Japan as the four geographical locations. The trade structure or economic relationship between the countries outside the region and the euro zone is used as a reference to study the changes of the degree of economic cycle cooperativeness of the first member countries before and after the establishment of the euro zone, which verifies the hypothesis derived from the theoretical derivation. This paper finds that the degree of economic cycle synergy among major economies has increased significantly after the establishment of the euro zone, although the economic cycle synergy of major economies has increased to varying degrees due to the impact of global economic integration. And there is a trend to the core group of countries led by Germany. Finally, according to the practice and experience of the euro zone, this paper puts forward corresponding policy recommendations for the possible integration of East Asia in the future.
【學位授予單位】：復旦大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F113.7

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本文編號：2040582