本文選題：價格波動 + 福利效應��； 參考：《財貿研究》2014年05期

【摘要】：采用1995—2011年糧食生產與消費的相關數據,在對糧食供需彈性以及糧食收益率估計的基礎上,運用Minot福利效應模型,測算并比較分析糧食價格波動對農村居民與城鎮(zhèn)居民福利變化的影響。結果表明:糧食價格波動的福利分配在城鄉(xiāng)居民間是非均衡的。糧食價格波動與城鎮(zhèn)居民福利變動具有負向作用關系,糧食生產價格平均每提高10%,城鎮(zhèn)居民短期福利減少3.48%,長期福利減少2.99%;農村居民則由于糧食價格上漲而福利增加,即糧食價格平均每提高10%,農村居民短期福利增加5.50%,長期福利增加6.35%。糧食價格波動的收入效應與替代效應導致了城鄉(xiāng)居民福利分配的非均衡性。糧食價格波動中的長期福利效應優(yōu)于短期福利效應,且城鎮(zhèn)居民的福利變動率大于農村居民,反映了城鄉(xiāng)居民作為理性人對價格波動的適應性調整。因此,應建立健全城鎮(zhèn)低收入群體的價格補貼機制、完善市場價格機制等。
[Abstract]:Based on the data of grain production and consumption from 1995 to 2011, and on the basis of estimating the elasticity of grain supply and demand and grain yield, the Minot welfare effect model is used. The effects of grain price fluctuation on the welfare of rural residents and urban residents were measured and compared. The results show that the welfare distribution of food price fluctuation is unbalanced between urban and rural residents. The fluctuation of grain prices has a negative relationship with the changes in welfare of urban residents. For every 10 per cent increase in grain production prices, the short-term welfare of urban residents decreases by 3.48, the long-term welfare decreases by 2.99, while the welfare of rural residents increases as a result of the increase in grain prices. That is to say, for every average increase of 10 grain prices, the short-term welfare of rural residents will increase by 5.50 and the long-term welfare by 6.35. The income effect and substitution effect of grain price fluctuation lead to the disequilibrium of urban and rural residents' welfare distribution. The long-term welfare effect of grain price fluctuation is better than that of short-term welfare effect, and the welfare change rate of urban residents is larger than that of rural residents, which reflects the adaptability of urban and rural residents as rational people to price fluctuations. Therefore, we should establish and perfect the price subsidy mechanism of urban low income groups and perfect the market price mechanism.
【作者單位】： 河南理工大學應急管理學院;河南理工大學安全與應急管理研究中心;
【基金】：教育部人文社會科學研究青年基金項目“糧食價格波動的福利效應及政策調控研究——基于糧食主產區(qū)、主銷區(qū)和產銷平衡區(qū)視角”(12YJC790142) 河南省哲學社會科學規(guī)劃項目“糧食生產核心區(qū)綜合生產能力評價與提升路徑研究”(2014CJJ066) 河南省教育廳人文社會科學重點項目“糧食生產技術進步有偏演進的動力機制及福利效應”(2014-zd-066)
【分類號】：F323.7;F126;F224

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本文編號：2008077