本文選題：LEAP + 情景預(yù)測　； 參考：《河南農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：自工業(yè)革命以后，全球氣候變暖已經(jīng)成為全世界共同面對的環(huán)境問題。中國的碳排放和碳減排正日益受到國際社會的高度關(guān)注。目前,我國三次產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)碳排放比例最高的是第二產(chǎn)業(yè),尤其是第二產(chǎn)業(yè)中的工業(yè)。河南省是全國能耗大省，同時產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)又以第二產(chǎn)業(yè)中的工產(chǎn)業(yè)為主。因此，研究產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整下的河南省碳排放及碳減排具有重要的現(xiàn)實意義。 在這樣的背景之下,通過對國內(nèi)外研究的學(xué)習(xí)和能源環(huán)境模型的分析,本文采用長期能源替代規(guī)劃模型LEAP,以河南省碳排放為實證研究對象,應(yīng)用脫鉤理論、環(huán)境庫茲涅茨曲線理論、灰色關(guān)聯(lián)度模型和碳排放因素分解模型對其加以研究,得出產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、能源結(jié)構(gòu)和技術(shù)效率等因素對碳排放影響關(guān)系與參數(shù),建立河南省的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)與碳排放的LEAP模型。 結(jié)合河南省十二五規(guī)劃以及中等收入發(fā)達(dá)國家2000年和2009年的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)發(fā)展趨勢,設(shè)定河南省未來產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整、能源結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整、經(jīng)濟(jì)總量發(fā)展趨勢和人口規(guī)模城鎮(zhèn)化率的情景參數(shù),通過LEAP模型模擬不同產(chǎn)業(yè)部門未來能源消耗和碳排放情況.對模擬情況加以分析,得出河南省未來總體碳排放的四種不同情境即基準(zhǔn)情景、低碳情景1、低碳情景2和低碳情景3。通過三種低碳情景下河南省分部門和總體碳排放未來碳減排潛力的分析,得出河南省未來碳減排結(jié)論,并對此提出未來河南省低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的對策和建議。 根據(jù)三種低碳情景的計算結(jié)果，2030年河南碳排放量將在3.7～4.4億噸之間，三種低碳情景下的碳排放年均增長為4.6%～5.4%，遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)低于1992～2011年期間河南碳排放年均9.03%的增長率。并且，河南有可能在今后18年實現(xiàn)碳排放強(qiáng)度減少45%，低碳情景3中，2013年的碳排放強(qiáng)度為0.81噸/萬元，到2030年碳排放強(qiáng)度將減少到0.44噸/萬元。低碳情景1中2030年的碳排放量已經(jīng)達(dá)到了4.48億噸，相對與基準(zhǔn)情景已經(jīng)減少了近3375萬噸。低碳情景3中2030年河南的碳排放量較低碳情景1仍可減少將10348萬噸，占屆時碳排放總量的27%左右。 以期通過上述的研究，，為河南省未來碳減排政策分析，探究低碳發(fā)展途徑與對策提供了理論研究基礎(chǔ)，為制定河南省區(qū)域低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)政策及碳排放預(yù)警提供理論依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:Since the Industrial Revolution, global warming has become a common environmental problem all over the world. China's carbon emissions and carbon abatement are increasingly being highly concerned by the international community. At present, the secondary industry, especially the industry in the secondary industry, has the highest carbon emission ratio in the tertiary industrial structure in China. Henan Province is a big energy consumption province in China, and the industrial structure is dominated by the industrial industry in the secondary industry. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to study the carbon emission and carbon emission reduction in Henan Province under the industrial structure adjustment. In this context, through the study of domestic and foreign research and the analysis of energy environment model, this paper adopts the long-term energy alternative planning model, taking Henan Province carbon emissions as the empirical research object, applies decoupling theory. The environmental Kuznets curve theory, grey correlation model and carbon emission factor decomposition model are studied, and the relationship and parameters of industrial structure, energy structure and technical efficiency on carbon emissions are obtained. The LEAP model of industrial structure and carbon emission in Henan Province is established. According to the 12th Five-Year Plan of Henan Province and the development trend of industrial structure in middle-income developed countries in 2000 and 2009, the future industrial structure adjustment and energy structure adjustment of Henan Province have been set up. LEAP model was used to simulate the future energy consumption and carbon emissions of different industrial sectors. By analyzing the simulation situation, four different scenarios of future total carbon emissions in Henan Province were obtained, namely, baseline scenario, low carbon scenario 1, low carbon scenario 2 and low carbon scenario 3. Based on the analysis of the future carbon emission reduction potential of Henan Province in three low carbon scenarios, the conclusion of future carbon emission reduction in Henan Province is drawn, and the countermeasures and suggestions for the future development of low-carbon economy in Henan Province are put forward. According to the calculation results of three low carbon scenarios, the carbon emissions of Henan will be between 3.7 and 440 million tons in 2030. The average annual increase of carbon emissions under the three low carbon scenarios is 4.6% and 5.4%, which is far lower than the average annual growth rate of 9.03% in Henan during 1992-2011. In low carbon scenario 3, the intensity of carbon emission in 2013 is 0.81 tons / 10,000 yuan, and the intensity of carbon emission will be reduced to 0.44 tons / 10,000 yuan by 2030. In low carbon scenario 1, emissions had reached 448 million tonnes by 2030, nearly 33.75 million tonnes less than the baseline scenario. In low carbon scenario 3, Henan's carbon emissions will still be reduced by 103.48 million tons in 2030, accounting for about 27 percent of total carbon emissions by that time. Through the above research, this paper provides a theoretical basis for the analysis of the future carbon emission reduction policy in Henan Province and the exploration of low-carbon development approaches and countermeasures, and provides a theoretical basis for the formulation of regional low-carbon economic policy and early warning of carbon emissions in Henan Province.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：河南農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F205;F127;F279.2

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