發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-05-17 10:57

  本文選題：交通 + 經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)　； 參考：《武漢大學(xué)》2013年博士論文

【摘要】：改革開放以來(lái),作為經(jīng)濟(jì)與社會(huì)發(fā)展的重要組成部分,我國(guó)交通運(yùn)輸業(yè)也得到了迅速發(fā)展。國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)局?jǐn)?shù)據(jù)顯示,至2010年我國(guó)高鐵里程數(shù)在世界排名第一,高速公路里程數(shù)排名第二,鐵路里程數(shù)排名第三。從改革開放到2010年我國(guó)綜合交通網(wǎng)絡(luò)總里程增長(zhǎng)了3.4倍,其中公路里程增加4.5倍,鐵路里程增加1.8倍,機(jī)場(chǎng)數(shù)量增加2.2倍。交通系統(tǒng)所能達(dá)到的旅客運(yùn)輸量增加了8.7倍,貨物運(yùn)輸量增加了5.1倍。我國(guó)交通與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的關(guān)系究竟如何是本文研究的主要內(nèi)容。弄清楚我國(guó)交通與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間的關(guān)系,有助于未來(lái)交通發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略計(jì)劃的制定,為經(jīng)濟(jì)的進(jìn)一步增長(zhǎng)奠定基礎(chǔ)。 本文從不同角度來(lái)研究我國(guó)交通與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的關(guān)系,分別采用了不同的方法和模型,并在實(shí)證研究中靈活的將時(shí)間維度和空間維度相結(jié)合,全面而立體的展示我國(guó)交通與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)關(guān)系的時(shí)空格局。 本文第二章整理歸納了本文實(shí)證分析所需的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)和計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)理論基礎(chǔ)。根據(jù)前人對(duì)交通與經(jīng)濟(jì)的關(guān)系和相互作用的研究成果,歸納總結(jié)并形成了交通與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的良性循環(huán)圖,為解釋交通與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的復(fù)雜關(guān)系奠定了理論基礎(chǔ)。本文第三章首先從整體上分析了我國(guó)交通與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間的關(guān)系,包括從時(shí)間維度上分析各交通變量與我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的趨勢(shì)是否一致,從空間范圍上來(lái)看各地區(qū)交通的運(yùn)量與經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)達(dá)程度是否一致,有何特點(diǎn)。結(jié)果顯示：我國(guó)交通客運(yùn)量和貨運(yùn)量的增長(zhǎng)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)基本同步；公路運(yùn)輸是我國(guó)最主要的運(yùn)輸方式,分別占總客運(yùn)量和總貨運(yùn)量的90%和80%以上,其次為鐵路運(yùn)輸,但各個(gè)省份的交通結(jié)構(gòu)差異很大；公路運(yùn)輸和鐵路運(yùn)輸與我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)達(dá)水平的空間分布較為一致。我國(guó)水運(yùn)主要從事貨物運(yùn)輸,主要分布在沿�？诎丁㈤L(zhǎng)江和珠江流域；而我國(guó)民航主要從事旅客運(yùn)輸,主要分布在我國(guó)各大中城市。 第三章是從時(shí)間和空間上對(duì)我國(guó)交通與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)關(guān)系的一個(gè)直觀展示,近年來(lái)我國(guó)交通的區(qū)域性發(fā)展是否平衡,和經(jīng)濟(jì)的空間關(guān)系又如何呢?這即是第四章的主要研究?jī)?nèi)容。第四章采用空間重心分析方法,結(jié)合2001年和2010年我國(guó)地級(jí)市的交通和經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù),研究了我國(guó)交通與經(jīng)濟(jì)的空間關(guān)系,以揭示我國(guó)各交通的區(qū)域發(fā)展的平衡性和與經(jīng)濟(jì)的空間相關(guān)程度。結(jié)果顯示：我國(guó)各種交通變量均向經(jīng)濟(jì)重心靠攏,說(shuō)明交通與經(jīng)濟(jì)的聯(lián)系更加密切,其中總貨運(yùn)量、鐵路客運(yùn)與經(jīng)濟(jì)重心距離較小,較其他變量與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)關(guān)系更緊密。整體上來(lái)說(shuō)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)、公路、水路和民航的區(qū)域發(fā)展較為均衡,而鐵路的重心遷移較大,無(wú)論是客運(yùn)量還是貨運(yùn)量都向西南地方遷移,說(shuō)明這期間西南地區(qū)的鐵路運(yùn)量大為增強(qiáng),可能是由于西部大開發(fā)中西南地區(qū)鐵路大規(guī)模的建設(shè)導(dǎo)致鐵路供給的增加。 前面所做的研究未揭示交通與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的數(shù)量關(guān)系,本文第五章和第六章內(nèi)容則采用回歸分析方法來(lái)揭示其數(shù)量關(guān)系。第五章研究主要有兩個(gè)目的,第一是研究交通的經(jīng)濟(jì)彈性(即經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)一個(gè)百分點(diǎn),交通運(yùn)量增長(zhǎng)多少)以及近十年來(lái)經(jīng)濟(jì)彈性的趨勢(shì),第二是研究交通的外部性(即一個(gè)地區(qū)的交通對(duì)周圍地區(qū)有何影響)。本章所采用的是雙對(duì)數(shù)模型(彈性模型)和我國(guó)2001年到2010年省份和地級(jí)市的交通和經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù),并以客貨運(yùn)量為主要研究對(duì)象。采用了不同尺度下交通的經(jīng)濟(jì)彈性的差異來(lái)分析交通的外部性。由于本章所采用的數(shù)據(jù)存在較多異常值,還采用了MM穩(wěn)健回歸方法來(lái)剔除異常值對(duì)回歸結(jié)果的破壞作用。本章研究結(jié)果顯示：不同尺度下各交通變量的彈性差異較大,時(shí)間趨勢(shì)也不相同。其中總客運(yùn)量、鐵路客運(yùn)和鐵路貨運(yùn)貨運(yùn)有正的外部性,而總貨運(yùn)量、公路貨運(yùn)量和公路客運(yùn)量有負(fù)的外部性。 第五章所研究的彈性關(guān)系是以經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展速度為基準(zhǔn)的,即研究經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)快的地方交通增長(zhǎng)的快慢,而研究交通與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間的關(guān)系還可以以經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)達(dá)水平為基準(zhǔn),即研究經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)達(dá)地區(qū)的交通增長(zhǎng)的快慢問(wèn)題,該問(wèn)題即為交通的收斂性。本文第六章建立了交通的收斂性模型,以我國(guó)客貨運(yùn)量為研究對(duì)象,采用了2001年和2010年地級(jí)市的交通和經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)。由于本章所采用的數(shù)據(jù)和模型所存在嚴(yán)重的空間相關(guān)性,采用普通線性回歸擬合會(huì)造成較為嚴(yán)重的偏差,故本章用地理加權(quán)回歸來(lái)進(jìn)行分析。結(jié)果顯示,地理加權(quán)回歸比普通線性回歸有更好的擬合能力,并能有效解決空間相關(guān)性問(wèn)題。整體上來(lái)說(shuō),我國(guó)交通無(wú)論是客運(yùn)量還是貨運(yùn)量都是收斂的,即欠發(fā)達(dá)地區(qū)交通運(yùn)量增長(zhǎng)的更快。但交通的收斂性有有著明顯的地域特征,我國(guó)東部地區(qū)交通呈現(xiàn)收斂之勢(shì),而西部地區(qū)則是發(fā)散的。 本文第七章分析了我國(guó)“十五”和“十一五”期間交通發(fā)展的成果與不足,并結(jié)合本文前面所做的實(shí)證分析結(jié)果,提出了我國(guó)交通運(yùn)輸業(yè)發(fā)展的建議與設(shè)想,包括：我國(guó)運(yùn)輸結(jié)構(gòu)仍需要大力調(diào)整,提高除公路外的其他運(yùn)輸方式的比重,充分發(fā)揮鐵路客運(yùn)和水路貨運(yùn)的優(yōu)勢(shì),分擔(dān)交通運(yùn)輸壓力,并積極發(fā)展民航業(yè)；實(shí)行各種專項(xiàng)交通政策,打造各經(jīng)濟(jì)圈和產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈的專項(xiàng)交通,提高經(jīng)濟(jì)圈和產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈的運(yùn)輸能力；根據(jù)各交通運(yùn)輸?shù)耐獠啃詠?lái)合理安排發(fā)達(dá)地區(qū)和欠發(fā)達(dá)地區(qū)的各種交通投資,加強(qiáng)交通對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的帶動(dòng)作用等。本文還對(duì)未來(lái)交通與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)關(guān)系研究提出了建議與設(shè)想。 本文研究從趨勢(shì)、重心、彈性、外部性以及收斂性等不同角度分析了我國(guó)交通與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的關(guān)系,將時(shí)間和空間維度在分析中有機(jī)結(jié)合,并采用了較為先進(jìn)的研究方法,其研究結(jié)果可與我國(guó)交通發(fā)展的實(shí)際情況相結(jié)合,給我國(guó)未來(lái)交通建設(shè)發(fā)展提出建議,具有理論和實(shí)踐意義。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's transportation industry has also developed rapidly as an important part of the economic and social development. The National Bureau of statistics shows that the number of high speed railway mileages in China ranked first in 2010, the number of mileage ranked second and the railway mileage ranked third. From reform and opening up to 2010 China comprehensive exchange The total mileage of the network increased by 3.4 times, of which the road mileage increased by 4.5 times, the railway mileage increased by 1.8 times, the number of airports increased by 2.2 times. The passenger transport capacity reached by the traffic system increased by 8.7 times and the freight transport volume increased by 5.1 times. How the relationship between traffic and economic growth in China is the main content of this study. The relationship between transportation and economic growth will contribute to the formulation of future transport development strategy plans and lay the foundation for further economic growth.
This paper studies the relationship between China's traffic and economic growth from different angles, uses different methods and models respectively, and combines the time dimension and the spatial dimension flexibly in the empirical study, and shows the spatial and temporal pattern of the relationship between China's traffic and economic growth in a comprehensive and three-dimensional way.
The second chapter of this paper sums up the theoretical basis of economics and econometrics, which is necessary for the empirical analysis of this paper. According to the research results of the relationship and interaction between traffic and economy, a benign circular map of traffic and economic development has been summed up and formed, which lays a theoretical foundation for explaining the complex relationship between traffic and economic growth. The third chapter firstly analyzes the relationship between traffic and economic growth in China, including the analysis of whether the traffic variables are consistent with the trend of economic growth in China from the time dimension. From the spatial scope, the traffic volume in each area is consistent with the economic development degree. The growth of passenger volume and freight volume is basically synchronized with economic growth; highway transportation is the most important mode of transportation in China, accounting for 90% and 80% of the total passenger volume and total cargo volume respectively, followed by railway transportation, but the traffic structure varies greatly in each province; the spatial distribution of highway transportation and railway transportation and the economic developed level of our country China's water transport is mainly engaged in transport of goods, mainly in coastal ports, the Yangtze River and the Pearl River Basin, and civil aviation in China mainly engaged in passenger transport, mainly in China's large and medium cities.
The third chapter is an intuitionistic display of the relationship between traffic and economic growth in China from time and space. In recent years, how is the regional development of traffic in China and the spatial relationship between the economy and the economy? This is the main research content of the fourth chapter. The fourth chapter adopts the method of Spatial Gravity Center analysis, combined with the cities of our country in 2001 and 2010. The spatial relationship between traffic and economy in China is studied in order to reveal the balance of regional development and the degree of spatial correlation with the economy in China. The results show that all kinds of traffic variables in China are close to the economic center of gravity, indicating that the connection between traffic and economy is more close, including the total freight volume, railway passenger transport and the transportation and economy. As a whole, the regional development of China's economy, highways, waterways and civil aviation is more balanced, and the center of gravity of the railway has a greater migration. It is due to the large-scale construction of the southwest railway in the development of the western region, the railway supply has increased.
The previous study did not reveal the quantitative relationship between traffic and economic growth. The fifth and sixth chapters of this paper use regression analysis to reveal the quantitative relationship. The fifth chapter mainly has two purposes. The first is to study the economic resilience of traffic (i.e., one percentage point of economic growth, the increase of traffic volume) and nearly ten years. The trend of economic elasticity, second is the study of the externality of traffic (i.e., the impact of traffic in a region on the surrounding area). This chapter uses the double logarithmic model (elastic model) and the traffic and economic data of China's provinces and cities from 2001 to 2010, and takes the passenger and freight transport as the main research object. The difference of economic elasticity is used to analyze the externality of traffic. Because there are many abnormal values in the data used in this chapter, the MM robust regression method is used to eliminate the damage effect of abnormal values on the regression results. The results show that the difference of the elasticity of each traffic variable is larger and the time trend is different in this chapter. Total passenger volume, railway passenger transport and railway freight transport have positive externalities, while total freight volume, highway freight volume and highway passenger volume have negative externalities.
The elastic relationship studied in the fifth chapter is based on the speed of economic development, that is, to study the fast growth of local traffic in the rapid economic growth, and the study of the relationship between traffic and economic growth can also be based on the level of economic development, that is, to study the fast and slow traffic growth in the developed areas, which is the convergence of traffic. In the sixth chapter, the convergence model of traffic is established. Taking the passenger and freight transport volume as the research object, the traffic and economic data of the cities in 2001 and 2010 are adopted. Because of the serious spatial correlation of the data and models used in this chapter, the general linear regression fitting will cause more serious deviation, so this chapter is used in this chapter. The results show that the geographical weighted regression has better fitting ability than the ordinary linear regression, and can effectively solve the spatial correlation problem. On the whole, the traffic volume and the freight volume are convergent in our country, that is to say, the traffic volume increases faster in the less developed areas. With obvious regional characteristics, traffic in the eastern part of China shows convergence, while the western region is divergent.
The seventh chapter analyzes the achievements and shortcomings of traffic development during the period of "fifteen" and "11th Five-Year" in China, and puts forward some suggestions and ideas for the development of transportation industry in China, including: our transportation structure needs to be adjusted vigorously to improve the proportion of other modes of transportation except highway. Give full play to the advantages of railway passenger transport and waterway freight, share the pressure of transportation and transportation, and actively develop the civil aviation industry, carry out a variety of special traffic policies, create special traffic of the economic circles and industrial chains, improve the transportation capacity of the economic circle and the industrial chain, and arrange the developed and underdeveloped areas rationally according to the externalities of transportation and transportation. All kinds of traffic investment in the area, and strengthen the driving effect of traffic on the economy, etc. This paper also puts forward some suggestions and ideas for the future research on the relationship between traffic and economic growth.
In this paper, the relationship between traffic and economic growth in China is analyzed from different angles, such as trend, center of gravity, elasticity, externality and convergence, and the combination of time and space dimension is organically combined, and more advanced research methods are adopted. The research results can be combined with the actual situation of traffic development in China and provide the future traffic construction in China. It is of theoretical and practical significance to put forward suggestions for development.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：武漢大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F512.3;F124.1

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