發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-05-16 11:45

  本文選題：經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng) + 貨幣供應(yīng)量��； 參考：《河北大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：2012年，我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)呈現(xiàn)緩慢發(fā)展態(tài)勢(shì)，展望2013年，全球不確定因素依然較多，經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇仍將緩慢。起源美國(guó)席卷全球的金融危機(jī)及愈演愈烈的歐債危機(jī)都對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生了不小的沖擊。與此同時(shí)，國(guó)內(nèi)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)也伴隨著嚴(yán)峻的通脹壓力，在經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化的今天，如何通過相應(yīng)的貨幣政策更好的抑制物價(jià)，減輕外部沖擊對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的不利影響是值得我們仔細(xì)考慮的問題。先前很多學(xué)者都對(duì)貨幣供應(yīng)量對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的影響進(jìn)行過研究，雖然研究方法各不相同，但他們的研究都說明了一點(diǎn)，即貨幣供應(yīng)量對(duì)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的平穩(wěn)運(yùn)行起著至關(guān)重要的作用。基于此，本文將在充分吸收前人研究的基礎(chǔ)上，根據(jù)中國(guó)1978年至2012年數(shù)據(jù)，進(jìn)一步探索在經(jīng)濟(jì)平穩(wěn)發(fā)展階段貨幣供應(yīng)量與物價(jià)水平之間的相互作用，以期找到最適合的貨幣供應(yīng)量水平，并期有助于為我國(guó)制定宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策提供理論依據(jù)。 通過構(gòu)造經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的誤差修正模型得知，GDP與貨幣供應(yīng)量、消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)存在長(zhǎng)期穩(wěn)定的關(guān)系，并且在短期內(nèi)，滯后一期的貨幣供應(yīng)量增長(zhǎng)率與滯后一期的消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)對(duì)當(dāng)期的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率產(chǎn)生顯著的影響。根據(jù)經(jīng)濟(jì)周期波動(dòng)的規(guī)律和通貨膨脹的條件，得到經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的適應(yīng)性條件，即在長(zhǎng)期內(nèi)，貨幣供應(yīng)量增長(zhǎng)率每變動(dòng)1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)會(huì)向相反的方向變動(dòng)1.778個(gè)百分點(diǎn)；消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)每變動(dòng)1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)相應(yīng)的變動(dòng)3.102個(gè)百分點(diǎn)；短期內(nèi)，滯后兩期的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率每變動(dòng)1%，相應(yīng)的當(dāng)期經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率會(huì)向相反的方向變動(dòng)0.2761個(gè)百分點(diǎn)；滯后一期的貨幣供應(yīng)量增長(zhǎng)率每變動(dòng)1%，當(dāng)期經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率相應(yīng)的變動(dòng)0.1052個(gè)百分點(diǎn)；滯后一期的消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)每變動(dòng)1%，當(dāng)期經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率相應(yīng)的變動(dòng)0.1090個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。同時(shí)，，根據(jù)近30年的數(shù)據(jù)，當(dāng)GDP＇在8%-10%之間，且CPI在2%-4%之間，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)：當(dāng)期M2增長(zhǎng)率與滯后一期的M2增長(zhǎng)率一般落在0.66-0.99之間。因此可以通過調(diào)整貨幣供應(yīng)量來(lái)達(dá)到穩(wěn)定經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的效果。
[Abstract]:In 2012, China's economy showed a slow growth trend, looking ahead to 2013, global uncertainty remains high, the economic recovery will remain slow. The financial crisis that originated from the United States sweeping the world and the increasingly European debt crisis have had a great impact on China's economy. At the same time, domestic economic growth is accompanied by severe inflationary pressures. In today's economic globalization, how to better curb prices through corresponding monetary policies, Mitigating the adverse effects of external shocks on economic growth is a matter worthy of our careful consideration. Many previous scholars have studied the influence of money supply on economic development. Although the research methods are different, their research shows that money supply plays a vital role in the smooth operation of macroeconomic. Based on this, this paper will further explore the interaction between money supply and price level in the stage of stable economic development based on the data from 1978 to 2012 based on the previous studies. In order to find the most suitable level of money supply and to provide theoretical basis for the formulation of macroeconomic policy in China. By constructing the error correction model of economic growth, we know that GDP and money supply, consumer price index have a long-term stable relationship, and in the short term, The growth rate of money supply in the period behind and the consumer price index in the period behind have a significant effect on the economic growth rate in the current period. According to the law of economic cycle fluctuation and the condition of inflation, the adaptive condition of economic growth is obtained, that is, in the long run, the growth rate of money supply changes by 1.778 percentage points with each change of 1 percentage point in the growth rate of money supply. For every 1 percentage point change in the consumer price index, the corresponding change of 3.102 percentage points in economic growth; in the short run, the corresponding economic growth rate will change 0.2761 percentage points in the opposite direction. For every change in the growth rate of money supply in the first period, the corresponding change in the current economic growth rate is 0.1052 percentage points; for each change in the consumer price index in the lag period, the corresponding change in the current economic growth rate is 0.1090 percentage points. At the same time, according to the data of nearly 30 years, when CPI is between 8% and 10%, and CPI is between 2% and 4%, we find that the current M2 growth rate and the delayed M2 growth rate generally fall between 0.66-0.99. Therefore, the effect of stabilizing economic growth can be achieved by adjusting the money supply.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：河北大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F224;F124.1;F822.2

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