本文選題：綜合評價 + G1熵值法��； 參考：《河北經(jīng)貿大學》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：2011年3月，全國“兩會”審議通過的“十二五”規(guī)劃綱要指出，必須以科學發(fā)展為主題，以加快轉變經(jīng)濟發(fā)展方式為主線，堅持把科技進步作為加快轉變經(jīng)濟發(fā)展方式的重要支撐，旨在建設資源節(jié)約型、環(huán)境友好型社會，促進經(jīng)濟社會發(fā)展與人口資源環(huán)境相協(xié)調，走可持續(xù)發(fā)展之路。這就要求對區(qū)域內人口、資源、環(huán)境、經(jīng)濟、社會、科技幾大系統(tǒng)的發(fā)展趨勢和相關程度有整體的評價，并分析對影響各個系統(tǒng)的敏感因子。 首先，本文建立了河北省PERDST綜合實力評價指標體系，并采用主客觀組合賦權法G1熵值法對河北省2006-2010年的數(shù)據(jù)進行量化處理，最后得出河北省區(qū)域綜合實力評價的結果，并分別對六大系統(tǒng)發(fā)展趨勢進行分析，找出其各自的敏感因子，對今后的發(fā)展方向提出政策建議。 其次，在京津冀一體化戰(zhàn)略背景下，本文通過精簡的指標體系，對三個省市的綜合實力和PERDST六個方面的發(fā)展情況作了對比，以找出河北省的發(fā)展優(yōu)勢和劣勢，為今后河北省各方面協(xié)調均衡的可持續(xù)發(fā)展提出建議。 在賦權方法上，采用主客觀結合的G1-熵值法對指標進行賦權。模型使用G1法的專家排序，并通過熵值來確定指標對上級指標的重要性賦值。使得組合權重既反映了專家意見又能反映指標數(shù)據(jù)變化，避免了G1法中指標之間重要程度人為確定的弊端，而沒有客觀標準問題，避免了常規(guī)主客觀賦權法所引起權重不合理分配的問題。 利用標準化數(shù)據(jù)和最終賦權，計算出河北省各個系統(tǒng)評價得分，以及五年間河北省綜合實力得分。根據(jù)每個系統(tǒng)得分走勢，分析政策對各個系統(tǒng)得分以及總得分的影響，并分析各個系統(tǒng)對整體綜合實力的影響，以得出影響河北省綜合發(fā)展的敏感因子。 在京津冀對比評價系統(tǒng)中個，分別根據(jù)系統(tǒng)、時序，兩個標準對得分進行分析。通過各系統(tǒng)中三省市得分排名和以年為單位的得分走勢分析，得出河北省在京津冀一體化戰(zhàn)略中的優(yōu)勢系統(tǒng)，以及三省市近年來綜合得分發(fā)展情況。 根據(jù)PERDST指標體系，得出的結論為：河北省的整體綜合得分是逐年上升的，這說明各系統(tǒng)在五年發(fā)展過程中有一定的互相協(xié)調能力，河北省在近年來的總體綜合實力在不斷增強中，其中資源系統(tǒng)的支撐，社會系統(tǒng)的穩(wěn)定，科技系統(tǒng)的推動對經(jīng)濟發(fā)展乃至整體實力增強起到了重要的作用。 根據(jù)京津冀對比評價結果，河北省在擁有資源和基礎建設優(yōu)勢和傳統(tǒng)工業(yè)、加工制造業(yè)優(yōu)勢的同時，也面臨著經(jīng)濟發(fā)展相對封閉，流動性不足、產(chǎn)業(yè)結構不合理等問題。利用自然和人力資源，發(fā)揮自身基礎產(chǎn)業(yè)的優(yōu)勢，，大力發(fā)展農業(yè)的現(xiàn)代化、產(chǎn)業(yè)化；工業(yè)與港口產(chǎn)業(yè)差異化發(fā)展，注重高科技產(chǎn)業(yè)與服務業(yè)的發(fā)展等措施，有助于河北省逐步提高經(jīng)濟實力，實現(xiàn)京津冀區(qū)域整體均衡發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:In March 2011, the outline of the "12th Five-Year Plan", which was deliberated and adopted by the National "two sessions", pointed out that scientific development must be the main theme and the main line should be speeding up the transformation of the mode of economic development. In order to build a resource-conserving and environment-friendly society, to promote the coordination of economic and social development with population, resources and environment, and to take the road of sustainable development, we should regard scientific and technological progress as an important support for speeding up the transformation of economic development. This requires an overall evaluation of the development trend and related degree of population, resources, environment, economy, society, science and technology in the region, and an analysis of the sensitive factors affecting each system. First of all, this paper establishes the evaluation index system of Hebei province PERDST comprehensive strength, and uses the subjective and objective combination weighting method G1 entropy method to quantify the data of Hebei province from 2006 to 2010. Finally, the results of Hebei province regional comprehensive strength evaluation are obtained. The development trends of the six systems are analyzed, their respective sensitive factors are found out, and some policy suggestions are put forward for the future development direction. Secondly, under the background of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei integration strategy, this paper compares the comprehensive strength of three provinces with the development of PERDST in order to find out the development strengths and weaknesses of Hebei Province through the simplified index system. Suggestions are put forward for coordinated and balanced sustainable development in Hebei Province in the future. In the method of weighting, the index is weighted by the combination of objective and subjective G _ 1-entropy method. The model uses the G _ 1 method to rank the experts, and determines the importance of the index to the superior index by entropy. The combination weight not only reflects the expert opinion but also reflects the change of index data, avoids the disadvantage of artificially determining the importance degree between indexes in G1 method, and has no objective standard problem. It avoids the problem of unreasonable distribution of weights caused by conventional subjective and objective weighting methods. By using standardized data and final weighting, the evaluation scores of each system in Hebei Province and the scores of Hebei's comprehensive strength in five years are calculated. According to the trend of each system score, the influence of policy on each system score and total score is analyzed, and the influence of each system on the overall comprehensive strength is analyzed in order to obtain the sensitive factors that affect the comprehensive development of Hebei Province. In the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei comparative evaluation system, the scores were analyzed according to the system, time series and two criteria. Through the analysis of the score ranking of three provinces and cities in each system and the analysis of the scoring trend in terms of year, the author draws the conclusion that Hebei Province has advantages in the integrated strategy of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, and the comprehensive score development of the three provinces and cities in recent years. According to the PERDST index system, the conclusion is that the overall comprehensive score of Hebei Province is rising year by year, which indicates that the systems have some ability to coordinate with each other in the development process of five years. In recent years, the overall comprehensive strength of Hebei Province is increasing, in which the support of resource system, the stability of social system and the promotion of science and technology system play an important role in the economic development and even the overall strength enhancement. According to the comparative evaluation results of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Province, Hebei Province has the advantages of resources and infrastructure, traditional industry and processing manufacturing industry, but also faces the problems of relatively closed economic development, insufficient liquidity, unreasonable industrial structure and so on. To make use of natural and human resources, to give full play to the advantages of their own basic industries, to vigorously develop the modernization and industrialization of agriculture, to differentiate the development of industry from the port industry, and to pay attention to the development of high-tech industries and service industries, etc. It is helpful for Hebei Province to gradually improve its economic strength and realize the balanced development of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei regions as a whole.
【學位授予單位】：河北經(jīng)貿大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F224;F127

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本文編號：1817114