本文選題：信用擴(kuò)張 + 內(nèi)部失衡��； 參考：《首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：本文從理論和歷史事實(shí)出發(fā)，立足于從實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)內(nèi)部的失衡來(lái)考察信用擴(kuò)張對(duì)實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)所造成的負(fù)面影響。理論上，本文詳細(xì)解讀了馬克思主義以及西方經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)主要流派的理論體系中對(duì)信用擴(kuò)張和經(jīng)濟(jì)失衡的相關(guān)方面所進(jìn)行的分析，在明確了信用擴(kuò)張可能會(huì)造成實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)內(nèi)部失衡的基礎(chǔ)上，綜合各方理論，形成了信用擴(kuò)張?jiān)斐蓪?shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)內(nèi)部總量與結(jié)構(gòu)失衡的分析框架，并分析了信用擴(kuò)張可能造成實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)內(nèi)部失衡的各種傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制。第一，信用擴(kuò)張通過直接影響總需求而造成實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)內(nèi)部失衡；第二，信用擴(kuò)張?jiān)斐山鹑谑袌?chǎng)的不穩(wěn)定，而導(dǎo)致實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)內(nèi)部失衡。在理論分析之后，本文還基于中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)現(xiàn)實(shí)，在前文所建立的理論分析框架下，分析了中國(guó)貨幣當(dāng)局實(shí)行信用擴(kuò)張帶來(lái)中國(guó)實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)內(nèi)部失衡的經(jīng)濟(jì)現(xiàn)象，并利用中國(guó)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的實(shí)際數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行了實(shí)證分析。分析采用了計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)中常用的VAR模型，對(duì)中國(guó)金融機(jī)構(gòu)信貸增長(zhǎng)、國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值、以及投資消費(fèi)貢獻(xiàn)比例數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行建模，并進(jìn)行脈沖相應(yīng)分析，證實(shí)了偏離信貸增長(zhǎng)潛在路徑的人為信用擴(kuò)張會(huì)造成GDP增長(zhǎng)偏離潛在增長(zhǎng)路徑的高漲，從而導(dǎo)致需求超過供給，形成經(jīng)濟(jì)總量失衡，同時(shí)也會(huì)造成投資消費(fèi)貢獻(xiàn)比率偏離潛在增長(zhǎng)趨勢(shì)的升高，這意味著帶來(lái)了內(nèi)需結(jié)構(gòu)變化而結(jié)構(gòu)性失衡。此外，，本文還討論了在中國(guó)現(xiàn)有金融體系下，信用擴(kuò)張?jiān)斐山鹑隗w系不穩(wěn)定而導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)失衡的可能性�；趯�(shí)證分析的結(jié)論，本文提出了兩點(diǎn)政策建議：第一，避免過度信用擴(kuò)張，同時(shí)，經(jīng)濟(jì)困難時(shí)期的信用擴(kuò)張最好與擴(kuò)大基礎(chǔ)建設(shè)為主的財(cái)政政策相配合；第二，加強(qiáng)消費(fèi)金融制度的建設(shè)，使得消費(fèi)與投資能夠在信用擴(kuò)張的過程中平衡發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:This paper, based on the theoretical and historical facts, based on the imbalance in the real economy, examines the negative effects of credit expansion on the real economy. In theory, this article explains in detail the analysis of the related aspects of credit expansion and economic imbalances in the theoretical system of Marx and the main schools of western economics. On the basis of the fact that the credit expansion may cause the internal imbalance of the real economy, the comprehensive parties theory has formed the analysis framework of the unbalance between the total and the structure of the real economy caused by the credit expansion, and analyses the various transmission mechanisms that the credit expansion may cause the internal imbalance in the real economy. First, the credit expansion has direct influence on the general economy. The demand causes the internal imbalance of the real economy; second, the credit expansion causes the instability of the financial market, which leads to the internal imbalance of the real economy. After the theoretical analysis, this paper also is based on the economic reality of China. Under the theoretical analysis framework established in the previous article, the Chinese currency authorities have carried out credit expansion to bring the real economy into China's real economy. The imbalance of the economic phenomenon, and using the actual data of the Chinese macro-economy to carry out an empirical analysis. The analysis adopted the VAR model commonly used in econometrics, modeling the credit growth, GDP, and investment consumption contribution ratio of the Chinese financial institutions, and carried out a corresponding pulse analysis, which confirmed the deviation from the credit growth. The potential path of human credit expansion will cause the GDP growth to deviate from the potential growth path, which leads to the excess demand, the imbalance of the total economic total, and the increase of the investment consumption contribution ratio that deviates from the potential growth trend, which means the structural imbalance of domestic demand structure. In addition, this paper also discusses the structural imbalance. Under the existing financial system in China, the credit expansion has caused the instability of the financial system and the possibility of economic imbalances. Based on the conclusion of the empirical analysis, this paper puts forward two policy suggestions: first, avoid excessive credit expansion, and the credit expansion in economic difficulties should be matched with the fiscal policy based on the expansion of the basic construction. The second is to strengthen the construction of consumer financial system, so that consumption and investment can be balanced in the process of credit expansion.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F832;F124

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