本文選題：增長趨勢 + 波動周期��； 參考：《暨南大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：區(qū)域經(jīng)濟一體化的速度和質(zhì)量在一定程度上受區(qū)域經(jīng)濟長期增長趨勢和短期波動周期的影響。本文選擇從實證的角度來研究中國省際區(qū)域自1952年以來長期經(jīng)濟增長過程中所表現(xiàn)出來的共性和異性。借助于小波分析和聚類分析等實證方法，本文實現(xiàn)了對各省市人均GDP數(shù)據(jù)的處理和分析，并得出以下結(jié)論： 1、在長期增長趨勢方面，各省市表現(xiàn)出如下的特征：整體上看來，全國大部分省市在1952-2010年間共出現(xiàn)了3次低谷，但向上增長的趨勢并沒有改變；從相關(guān)系數(shù)矩陣的值來看，東部沿海省市內(nèi)部長期經(jīng)濟增長趨勢的相關(guān)性要大于中部省市，而中部又要大于西部；從相關(guān)系數(shù)矩陣的檢驗結(jié)果來看，共有5組省市的檢驗P值高于5%，而其它省市之間表現(xiàn)出顯著的相關(guān)性；與其它省市相比，東部沿海省市改革開放后的聚集度明顯高于改革開放前。 2、在短期波動周期方面主要存在以下特征：從波谷個數(shù)來看，全國各省市至少出現(xiàn)了10次波谷，，最多的省市甚至有14次；從波動的幅度和頻率來看，我國各省市均呈現(xiàn)出收斂趨勢，且東部沿海省市的收斂速度和幅度領(lǐng)先于其它省市；從省市之間短期波動的相關(guān)系數(shù)矩陣來看，共有44組省市的相關(guān)系數(shù)未能通過統(tǒng)計檢驗；聚類結(jié)果表明，改革開放后東部省份的聚集程度明顯提高。 3、在區(qū)域經(jīng)濟的收斂性分析方面：我國省際區(qū)域之間不存在σ收斂和條件β收斂，但存在弱絕對β收斂，其收斂系數(shù)為-0.007，P值為0.0035。
[Abstract]:To a certain extent, the speed and quality of regional economic integration are influenced by the long-term growth trend and short-term fluctuation cycle of regional economy.This paper chooses to study the commonness and heterogeneity in the process of long-term economic growth in China's inter-provincial regions since 1952 from an empirical point of view.With the help of wavelet analysis and cluster analysis, this paper realizes the processing and analysis of the per capita GDP data of provinces and cities, and draws the following conclusions:1. In terms of long-term growth trend, the provinces and cities show the following characteristics: overall, most provinces and cities in the whole country in 1952-2010 a total of three lows, but the upward trend of growth has not changed; from the value of the correlation coefficient matrix,The correlation of the long-term economic growth trend in the eastern coastal provinces and cities is greater than that in the central provinces and cities, and the central part is larger than the western region.The test P value of five groups of provinces was higher than that of other provinces and cities, and the aggregation degree of eastern coastal provinces after reform and opening up was significantly higher than that of other provinces and cities.2. There are the following characteristics in the short-term fluctuation cycle: from the number of troughs, there are at least 10 troughs in all provinces and cities in China, and even 14 in the most provinces and cities, and the amplitude and frequency of the fluctuations are as follows.The convergence speed and amplitude of the eastern coastal provinces and cities are higher than those of other provinces and cities, and from the correlation coefficient matrix of short-term fluctuation between provinces and cities, 44 groups of correlation coefficients of provinces and cities fail to pass the statistical test.The clustering results show that the degree of aggregation in the eastern provinces is obviously improved after the reform and opening up.3. In terms of convergence analysis of regional economy, there is no 蟽 convergence and conditional 尾 convergence among provinces in China, but there is weak absolute 尾 convergence, and its convergence coefficient is -0.007 P = 0.0035.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：暨南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F127;F124.8

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