發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-04-17 20:27

  本文選題：增長(zhǎng)趨勢(shì) + 波動(dòng)周期��； 參考：《暨南大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化的速度和質(zhì)量在一定程度上受區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)長(zhǎng)期增長(zhǎng)趨勢(shì)和短期波動(dòng)周期的影響。本文選擇從實(shí)證的角度來(lái)研究中國(guó)省際區(qū)域自1952年以來(lái)長(zhǎng)期經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)過(guò)程中所表現(xiàn)出來(lái)的共性和異性。借助于小波分析和聚類分析等實(shí)證方法，本文實(shí)現(xiàn)了對(duì)各省市人均GDP數(shù)據(jù)的處理和分析，并得出以下結(jié)論： 1、在長(zhǎng)期增長(zhǎng)趨勢(shì)方面，各省市表現(xiàn)出如下的特征：整體上看來(lái)，全國(guó)大部分省市在1952-2010年間共出現(xiàn)了3次低谷，但向上增長(zhǎng)的趨勢(shì)并沒(méi)有改變；從相關(guān)系數(shù)矩陣的值來(lái)看，東部沿海省市內(nèi)部長(zhǎng)期經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)趨勢(shì)的相關(guān)性要大于中部省市，而中部又要大于西部；從相關(guān)系數(shù)矩陣的檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果來(lái)看，共有5組省市的檢驗(yàn)P值高于5%，而其它省市之間表現(xiàn)出顯著的相關(guān)性；與其它省市相比，東部沿海省市改革開(kāi)放后的聚集度明顯高于改革開(kāi)放前。 2、在短期波動(dòng)周期方面主要存在以下特征：從波谷個(gè)數(shù)來(lái)看，全國(guó)各省市至少出現(xiàn)了10次波谷，，最多的省市甚至有14次；從波動(dòng)的幅度和頻率來(lái)看，我國(guó)各省市均呈現(xiàn)出收斂趨勢(shì)，且東部沿海省市的收斂速度和幅度領(lǐng)先于其它省市；從省市之間短期波動(dòng)的相關(guān)系數(shù)矩陣來(lái)看，共有44組省市的相關(guān)系數(shù)未能通過(guò)統(tǒng)計(jì)檢驗(yàn)；聚類結(jié)果表明，改革開(kāi)放后東部省份的聚集程度明顯提高。 3、在區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)的收斂性分析方面：我國(guó)省際區(qū)域之間不存在σ收斂和條件β收斂，但存在弱絕對(duì)β收斂，其收斂系數(shù)為-0.007，P值為0.0035。
[Abstract]:To a certain extent, the speed and quality of regional economic integration are influenced by the long-term growth trend and short-term fluctuation cycle of regional economy.This paper chooses to study the commonness and heterogeneity in the process of long-term economic growth in China's inter-provincial regions since 1952 from an empirical point of view.With the help of wavelet analysis and cluster analysis, this paper realizes the processing and analysis of the per capita GDP data of provinces and cities, and draws the following conclusions:1. In terms of long-term growth trend, the provinces and cities show the following characteristics: overall, most provinces and cities in the whole country in 1952-2010 a total of three lows, but the upward trend of growth has not changed; from the value of the correlation coefficient matrix,The correlation of the long-term economic growth trend in the eastern coastal provinces and cities is greater than that in the central provinces and cities, and the central part is larger than the western region.The test P value of five groups of provinces was higher than that of other provinces and cities, and the aggregation degree of eastern coastal provinces after reform and opening up was significantly higher than that of other provinces and cities.2. There are the following characteristics in the short-term fluctuation cycle: from the number of troughs, there are at least 10 troughs in all provinces and cities in China, and even 14 in the most provinces and cities, and the amplitude and frequency of the fluctuations are as follows.The convergence speed and amplitude of the eastern coastal provinces and cities are higher than those of other provinces and cities, and from the correlation coefficient matrix of short-term fluctuation between provinces and cities, 44 groups of correlation coefficients of provinces and cities fail to pass the statistical test.The clustering results show that the degree of aggregation in the eastern provinces is obviously improved after the reform and opening up.3. In terms of convergence analysis of regional economy, there is no 蟽 convergence and conditional 尾 convergence among provinces in China, but there is weak absolute 尾 convergence, and its convergence coefficient is -0.007 P = 0.0035.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：暨南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F127;F124.8

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