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  本文選題：國債　切入點：經(jīng)濟增長　出處：《南京財經(jīng)大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：大蕭條過后,凱恩斯主義經(jīng)濟在西方發(fā)達國家占據(jù)主導(dǎo)地位,它提倡政府采取赤字財政政策促進國家經(jīng)濟增長。但是2009年以來的歐洲債務(wù)危機引起了全世界的關(guān)注,而且在歐盟的多次努力下,依然無法找到持續(xù)有效的解決方案。嚴重的債務(wù)危機問題不但嚴重影響到經(jīng)濟發(fā)展和社會穩(wěn)定,甚至還引起了政治動蕩。由此,本文對國債的有效性產(chǎn)生了懷疑：國債究竟對經(jīng)濟增長產(chǎn)生怎樣的影響?如何看待國債對經(jīng)濟增長的影響?這是本論文研究的重點內(nèi)容。 本文首先搜集并整理了大量關(guān)于國債對經(jīng)濟增長影響的文獻,得知在經(jīng)濟學(xué)范圍內(nèi)大致有三種觀點：國債負效應(yīng)論、國債零效應(yīng)論以及國債正效應(yīng)論。主張政府主導(dǎo)經(jīng)濟的凱恩斯學(xué)派認為,國債的發(fā)行對經(jīng)濟增長具有積極影響；自由主義和理性預(yù)期學(xué)派判斷國債對經(jīng)濟增長沒有正向影響,甚至?xí)a(chǎn)生負作用。根據(jù)以往學(xué)者的研究,本文確定了研究對象——OECD國家主權(quán)債務(wù)。選取OECD國家的原因在于數(shù)據(jù)資料充足,而且這一經(jīng)濟體是世界經(jīng)濟的代表。 在定量研究的初始階段,本文對OECD國家債務(wù)與經(jīng)濟增長的現(xiàn)狀做出基本面分析。研究發(fā)現(xiàn),OECD成員國的債務(wù)情況普遍不樂觀。多數(shù)國家的國債負擔(dān)率、赤字率以及居民應(yīng)債率均超過國際設(shè)定的安全界限(60%、3%以及100%)。同時,雖然日本、美國、英國等國家的債務(wù)規(guī)模龐大,甚至超過歐洲債務(wù)危機的主角(希臘、葡萄牙等國),但這些國家并未發(fā)生債務(wù)危機。研究發(fā)現(xiàn),雙方的主要不同點在于,日美等國側(cè)重于實體經(jīng)濟發(fā)展,而希臘等國側(cè)重于福利創(chuàng)造。這說明一國在設(shè)定經(jīng)濟發(fā)展路線時應(yīng)注重其經(jīng)濟結(jié)構(gòu)的合理性,注重發(fā)展實體經(jīng)濟,提升國際經(jīng)濟競爭力。 在上述研究的基礎(chǔ)上,本文采用面板數(shù)據(jù)模型對國債的有效性進行實證研究。結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)：第一,對經(jīng)濟增長貢獻最大的因素是勞動,其次是資本；第二,國債對經(jīng)濟增長沒有顯著的影響,也不存在滯后效應(yīng)；第三,在西方國家,采用何種政治制度對經(jīng)濟增長的影響是不顯著的,但是,歐元區(qū)國家的經(jīng)濟增長比非歐元區(qū)國家低。另外,通過國債對資本增長、勞動增長以及科研投資的“引致效應(yīng)”分析,得知國債對投資具有“擠出效應(yīng)”,但相對于勞動增長而言,經(jīng)濟增長對資本增長依賴度并不高,甚至逐年下降,所以國債對資本增長的引致效應(yīng)并沒有對經(jīng)濟增長產(chǎn)生顯著影響,而國債對勞動增長以及科研投資不存在顯著的影響。
[Abstract]:After the Great Depression, Keynesian economies dominated the Western world, advocating deficit fiscal policies to boost national growth. But the European debt crisis since 2009 has attracted worldwide attention. And despite many efforts by the European Union, there is still no way to find a sustainable and effective solution. The serious debt crisis has not only seriously affected economic development and social stability, but also caused political instability. This paper doubts the validity of the national debt: how does the national debt affect the economic growth? How to look at the impact of national debt on economic growth? This is the focus of this paper. This paper first collects and collates a lot of literature on the influence of national debt on economic growth, and finds out that there are three views in the scope of economics: the negative effect of treasury bonds. The Keynesian school that advocates the government leading economy holds that the issuance of national debt has a positive effect on economic growth, and the liberalism and rational expectation school judge that national debt has no positive effect on economic growth. According to the previous studies, this paper determines the research object of OECD countries. The reason for selecting OECD countries is that the data is sufficient, and the economy is the representative of the world economy. In the initial stage of quantitative research, this paper makes a fundamental analysis of the current situation of debt and economic growth in OECD countries. Both the deficit rate and the resident debt rate exceed the internationally set security limit of 603 percent and 100 percent. Meanwhile, although Japan, the United States, Britain and other countries have large debts, they are even bigger than the protagonists of Europe's debt crisis (Greece). Portugal and other countries, but these countries did not have a debt crisis. The study found that the main difference between the two sides is that countries such as Japan and the United States have focused on the development of the real economy. Greece and other countries focus on welfare creation, which shows that a country should pay attention to the rationality of its economic structure, the development of real economy and the promotion of international economic competitiveness. On the basis of the above research, this paper uses panel data model to make an empirical study on the effectiveness of national debt. The results show that: first, labor contributes the most to economic growth, followed by capital; second, National debt has no significant impact on economic growth, nor does it have a lag effect. Third, in western countries, the impact of what kind of political system on economic growth is not significant, but, Economic growth in euro zone countries is lower than that in non-euro zone countries. In addition, the "induced effect" of government bonds on capital growth, labor growth and investment in scientific research is analyzed. We know that government bonds have an "crowding out effect" on investment, but economic growth is not highly dependent on capital growth compared to labor growth, and even decreases year by year. Therefore, the induced effect of national debt on capital growth has no significant effect on economic growth, while national debt has no significant effect on labor growth and investment in scientific research.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F811.5;F113

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