本文關(guān)鍵詞：國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)周期錯(cuò)配、供給側(cè)改革與中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)中高速增長(zhǎng)，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。

國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)周期錯(cuò)配、供給側(cè)改革與中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)中高速增長(zhǎng)

The Global Business Cycle Mismatch, Supply Side Reform and Medium-High Speed Growth Rate in China

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WANG Hongju, WANG Chuan （National Academy of Economic Strategy, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, 100028）

中國(guó)社會(huì)科學(xué)院財(cái)經(jīng)戰(zhàn)略研究院,100028

文章摘要：2015年，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)步入“新常態(tài)”，通過(guò)靈活運(yùn)用貨幣金融政策，中國(guó)成功抵御金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)；財(cái)政政策加力增效，經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)平穩(wěn)減速；生產(chǎn)部門(mén)物價(jià)低迷，但避免了消費(fèi)領(lǐng)域通貨緊縮；經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)不斷優(yōu)化，為創(chuàng)新創(chuàng)業(yè)提供了新的動(dòng)力。2016年，，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)有望繼續(xù)緩慢復(fù)蘇，但經(jīng)濟(jì)周期錯(cuò)配格局將加大經(jīng)濟(jì)下行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。作為“十三五”規(guī)劃的開(kāi)局之年，2016年中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)仍有下行壓力，需要加大供給側(cè)改革力度，并從供需兩端共同發(fā)力，實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)中求進(jìn)的目標(biāo)，保證經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)運(yùn)行在中高速的合理區(qū)間。

Abstr：China has entered a ＂new normal＂ economic period in 2015. The central government warded off financial risk through flexible use of monetary and fiscal policy, achieved a soft landing via structural expansive fiscal policy, avoided deflation in consumption sector despite slumping prices in productive sector, optimized the economic structure, and provided a new impetus to innovation and entrepreneurship. In 2016, the world economy is projected to slow recovery, and downside risks to the world economy appear more pronounced due to the aggravating global business cycle mismatches. 2016 is the first year of the＂ 13th Five-year Plan＂. Constrained by the international business cycle mismatch, economic growth is expected to face downward pressure. In order to achieve the target of economic progress while maintaining stability, and guarantee that the economic growth is running at medium-high speed in a reasonable range, the central government should not ignore the important role of demand side policies while the remarkebale reform in the supply side gets advanced.

文章關(guān)鍵詞：

Keyword：:Global Business Cycle Mismatch, Supply Side Reform and Medium-High Speed Growth

課題項(xiàng)目：國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金管理學(xué)部2015年第2期應(yīng)急項(xiàng)目“國(guó)際大宗商品價(jià)格走勢(shì)與輸入性通貨緊縮影響研究”（批準(zhǔn)號(hào)：71541014）;“債務(wù)處置周期對(duì)通貨緊縮預(yù)期的影響機(jī)制研究”（批準(zhǔn)號(hào)：71541015）;中國(guó)社科院創(chuàng)新工程項(xiàng)目“創(chuàng)新和完善宏觀調(diào)控方式與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防控研究”（項(xiàng)目號(hào)：2016CJY008）.

  本文關(guān)鍵詞：國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)周期錯(cuò)配、供給側(cè)改革與中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)中高速增長(zhǎng)，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。