本文關(guān)鍵詞：基于組合模型的南疆區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展趨勢(shì)研究　出處：《塔里木大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 南疆 區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì) 發(fā)展趨勢(shì) 組合模型

【摘要】：由于社會(huì)歷史的原因和自然地理環(huán)境的影響,南疆區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平相對(duì)落后,社會(huì)相對(duì)封閉。南疆地區(qū)具有一定的特殊性,其區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的好不好,直接影響國家的穩(wěn)定與發(fā)展。近幾年,國家西部大開發(fā),對(duì)口援疆政策以及建立喀什經(jīng)濟(jì)特區(qū),使南疆經(jīng)濟(jì)有了飛速發(fā)展。在這種區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展不穩(wěn)定的情況下,利用科學(xué)的方法預(yù)測(cè)南疆區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展趨勢(shì),為其制定經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展規(guī)劃提出定量依據(jù)和有用信息,指導(dǎo)制定其區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展對(duì)策,就顯得意義重大。 本文開展了對(duì)南疆區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展趨勢(shì)的研究。分析了南疆區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的現(xiàn)狀,目前,經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)較快,但區(qū)域內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展不平衡,經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展相對(duì)落后；產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)不斷優(yōu)化調(diào)整,區(qū)域內(nèi)部產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)卻相差較大,對(duì)外貿(mào)易存在結(jié)構(gòu)性缺陷；生活水平低于新疆和全國平均水平,并且,地區(qū)之間、城鄉(xiāng)之間收入差距不斷擴(kuò)大；基礎(chǔ)公共服務(wù)設(shè)施進(jìn)一步完善,社會(huì)發(fā)展各領(lǐng)域均取得積極進(jìn)展。但產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)不合理、區(qū)域發(fā)展不平衡、生態(tài)環(huán)境脆弱、基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)滯后、人才嚴(yán)重匱乏、不安全生產(chǎn)嚴(yán)重、社會(huì)不穩(wěn)定等,都嚴(yán)重制約了南疆區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展。 根據(jù)對(duì)南疆區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀和制約因素的分析,構(gòu)建其區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展指標(biāo)體系,分別用多元線性回歸模型、BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)路模型和灰色模型預(yù)測(cè)其區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展趨勢(shì),利用誘導(dǎo)有序加權(quán)平均組合預(yù)測(cè)方法,構(gòu)建組合模型,避免單一模型的局限性,提供科學(xué)可靠的預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果,從人均GDP、經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)、人民生活、社會(huì)發(fā)展、資源環(huán)境等方面闡述了南疆區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展趨勢(shì)。提出如下建議：合理產(chǎn)業(yè)升級(jí),大力發(fā)展優(yōu)勢(shì)產(chǎn)業(yè)；爭(zhēng)取財(cái)政投入,完善基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施；推進(jìn)新農(nóng)村建設(shè),縮小城鄉(xiāng)差距；營造良好環(huán)境培養(yǎng)吸引人才；處理好經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與資源環(huán)境的關(guān)系；有效克服經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展對(duì)安全生產(chǎn)的不利影響。
[Abstract]:Due to the social and historical reasons and the impact of natural geographical environment, the level of regional economic development in southern Xinjiang is relatively backward, and the society is relatively closed. In recent years, the development of the western region, the policy of assisting Xinjiang and the establishment of Kashgar Special Economic Zone. In the case of unstable regional economic development, the scientific method is used to predict the development trend of regional economy in southern Xinjiang. It is of great significance to put forward the quantitative basis and useful information for the formulation of economic development plan and to guide the formulation of regional economic development countermeasures. This paper has carried out a study on the development trend of the regional economy in the southern Xinjiang. It has analyzed the present situation of the regional economic development in the southern Xinjiang. At present, the economic growth is relatively fast, but the economic development in the region is unbalanced and the economic development is relatively backward. The industrial structure is constantly optimized and adjusted, but the internal industrial structure of the region is quite different, and the foreign trade has structural defects. The standard of living is lower than the average level of Xinjiang and the whole country, and the income gap between regions and between urban and rural areas is widening; The basic public service facilities are further improved and all fields of social development have made positive progress. However, the industrial structure is unreasonable, the regional development is unbalanced, the ecological environment is fragile, the infrastructure construction lags behind, and there is a serious shortage of talents. Unsafe production, social instability and other serious constraints on regional economic development in southern Xinjiang. According to the analysis of the current situation and the restrictive factors of the regional economic development in southern Xinjiang, the index system of regional economic development is constructed, and the multivariate linear regression model is used respectively. BP neural network model and grey model predict the trend of regional economic development, using induced ordered weighted average combination prediction method to build a combination model to avoid the limitations of a single model. To provide scientific and reliable prediction results, this paper expounds the economic development trend of southern Xinjiang from the aspects of per capita GDP, economic structure, people's life, social development, resources and environment, and puts forward the following suggestions: reasonable industrial upgrading. Develop advantage industry vigorously; Striving for financial input and perfecting infrastructure; To promote the construction of new rural areas and narrow the gap between urban and rural areas; Create a good environment to train and attract talents; To deal with the relationship between economic development and resources and environment; Effectively overcome the adverse impact of economic development on production safety.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：塔里木大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F127

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 楊揚(yáng);何偉;;基于組合預(yù)測(cè)模型的我國GDP預(yù)測(cè)分析[J];科技和產(chǎn)業(yè);2011年03期

2 高志剛;沈君;;新疆典型區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)與環(huán)境協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展評(píng)價(jià)與預(yù)測(cè)研究[J];干旱區(qū)資源與環(huán)境;2010年02期

3 溫青;張?bào)慊?楊旭;;基于負(fù)荷誤差和經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展趨勢(shì)的組合預(yù)測(cè)模型在中長(zhǎng)期負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè)中的應(yīng)用[J];電力系統(tǒng)保護(hù)與控制;2011年03期

4 石晶;李青松;霍瑜;;南疆經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展中金融要素貢獻(xiàn)度研究[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇;2009年04期

5 馬子紅;楊復(fù)興;;市縣級(jí)“十二五”規(guī)劃編制方法初探[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)問題探索;2010年11期

6 廖平凡;何國松;鐘儒剛;;基于灰色系統(tǒng)分析的咸寧市經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展預(yù)測(cè)[J];價(jià)值工程;2012年08期

7 喻曉玲,馬瓊;新疆兵團(tuán)經(jīng)濟(jì)分區(qū)及區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)差異分析[J];新疆農(nóng)墾經(jīng)濟(jì);2004年03期

8 王淑云,喻曉玲;阿克蘇經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展影響因素分析及對(duì)策[J];農(nóng)業(yè)與技術(shù);2004年06期

9 祝寶良;;2009年我國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展形勢(shì)預(yù)測(cè)分析[J];中國金融家;2009年02期

10 拜合提亞爾·吐爾遜;新疆南疆地區(qū)社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展面臨的問題、對(duì)策及其意義——新疆維吾爾自治區(qū)南疆地區(qū)實(shí)地調(diào)查[J];西北民族研究;2003年02期

相關(guān)博士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 徐陽;陜西省區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與交通運(yùn)輸體系一體化研究[D];長(zhǎng)安大學(xué);2010年

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前2條

1 毛開翼;關(guān)于組合預(yù)測(cè)中的權(quán)重確定及應(yīng)用[D];成都理工大學(xué);2007年

2 鄒子建;基于BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的衡水市經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測(cè)研究[D];西北農(nóng)林科技大學(xué);2010年

，

本文編號(hào)：1383661