本文關(guān)鍵詞：產(chǎn)品內(nèi)貿(mào)易對國際經(jīng)濟(jì)周期的傳導(dǎo)研究　出處：《浙江大學(xué)》2016年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

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【摘要】：當(dāng)今國際經(jīng)濟(jì)基本面有兩個值得關(guān)注的“新現(xiàn)象”,一是經(jīng)濟(jì)周期越來越困擾著世界經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展,尤其是2007年的美國次貸危機(jī)“肆虐”全球,一再打破學(xué)界與政界的預(yù)測,警醒人們對經(jīng)濟(jì)周期研究的重視。二是隨著國際分工的深化,產(chǎn)品內(nèi)貿(mào)易已成為經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化的重要特征與世界經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的重要驅(qū)動力,同時亦為經(jīng)濟(jì)周期的研究提供了新視野。然而,將產(chǎn)品內(nèi)貿(mào)易引入經(jīng)濟(jì)周期的研究,直至上世紀(jì)90年代才開始,且此工作進(jìn)展遲緩。因此,本課題的提出具有重要理論價值和現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。本文統(tǒng)計(jì)描述了近20年來危機(jī)沖擊下的貿(mào)易波動三類特征事實(shí)。第一類為危機(jī)對總體貿(mào)易的影響現(xiàn)象：美國次貸危機(jī)對“三角貿(mào)易”模式、中國總出口貿(mào)易的影響；第二類為危機(jī)對行業(yè)貿(mào)易的影響：美國次貸危機(jī)對中間產(chǎn)品部門貿(mào)易比對非中間產(chǎn)品部門貿(mào)易的影響大,以及美國次貸危機(jī)比亞洲金融危機(jī)對中國出口貿(mào)易特別是機(jī)電產(chǎn)品出口貿(mào)易的影響大；第三類為危機(jī)性貿(mào)易“超調(diào)”現(xiàn)象：2011年日本大地震導(dǎo)致的產(chǎn)品內(nèi)分工最為集中的電子、汽車行業(yè)全球供應(yīng)鏈的“解鉤”現(xiàn)象,以及美國次貸危機(jī)期間的貿(mào)易大波動現(xiàn)象。發(fā)展了一個基于產(chǎn)品內(nèi)貿(mào)易模式的加入中間產(chǎn)品生產(chǎn)與貿(mào)易的“2×2×3”的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)模型(IMT-GEM)。模型的演繹邏輯為,在IMT-GEM模型中求導(dǎo),發(fā)現(xiàn)當(dāng)其他經(jīng)濟(jì)條件不變時模型得到穩(wěn)態(tài)解,國際經(jīng)濟(jì)周期協(xié)動性自然生成。然后依據(jù)2007年美國次貸危機(jī)期間貿(mào)易是順周期的特征建立跨國矩陣?yán)碚撃Ｐ?模型顯示出了中間產(chǎn)品存貸效應(yīng)對貿(mào)易波動的傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制,由此反向印證了產(chǎn)品內(nèi)貿(mào)易對國際經(jīng)濟(jì)周期的傳導(dǎo)效應(yīng)。在此基礎(chǔ)上,本文給出了6個理論命題。基于三個視角分別就產(chǎn)品內(nèi)貿(mào)易對國際經(jīng)濟(jì)周期的傳導(dǎo)機(jī)理進(jìn)行了實(shí)證。一是基于總體視角,利用中國、東亞區(qū)域及歐美區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)體的面板數(shù)據(jù)檢驗(yàn)發(fā)現(xiàn),垂直專業(yè)化對國際經(jīng)濟(jì)周期具有顯著正向傳導(dǎo)效應(yīng),而且該結(jié)論對于中間產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易也具有穩(wěn)健性；二是基于行業(yè)視角,利用上述經(jīng)濟(jì)體的不同類型要素密集度行業(yè)中間產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易面板數(shù)據(jù)檢驗(yàn)發(fā)現(xiàn),隨著資本／技術(shù)密集型強(qiáng)流動要素中間產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易向勞動／資源密集型中間產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易的轉(zhuǎn)變,它們對國際經(jīng)濟(jì)周期的傳導(dǎo)效應(yīng)亦隨之下降。表明要素流動性強(qiáng)弱與國際經(jīng)濟(jì)周期協(xié)同性呈正相關(guān)；三是基于危機(jī)沖擊視角,分別利用跨國時間序列數(shù)據(jù)就最終產(chǎn)品需求沖擊對中間產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易的影響進(jìn)行了估計(jì),以及利用出口績效面板模型對危機(jī)沖擊的中間產(chǎn)品存貸效應(yīng)傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制進(jìn)行了檢驗(yàn)。所有估計(jì)結(jié)果均支持理論預(yù)期�；谌牡睦碚摲治雠c經(jīng)驗(yàn)研究結(jié)論,提出了正確把握產(chǎn)品內(nèi)貿(mào)易對國際經(jīng)濟(jì)周期傳導(dǎo)的這把“雙刃劍”兩方面建議：一是構(gòu)建“垂直水平型分工”模式的國際生產(chǎn)網(wǎng)絡(luò),分散產(chǎn)品內(nèi)分工系統(tǒng)風(fēng)險,提高經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的可靠性。二是通過自身培育和國外引進(jìn)高級要素,實(shí)現(xiàn)中國經(jīng)濟(jì)由目前的國際經(jīng)濟(jì)周期協(xié)動性的隨波者,逐步攀升為國際經(jīng)濟(jì)周期協(xié)動性的主導(dǎo)者。
[Abstract]:In today's international economic fundamentals have two noteworthy "new phenomenon", one is the economic cycle increasingly plagued the development of the world economy, especially the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis "in 2007 the raging global break repeatedly forecast the academic and political, to alert people to attach importance to the study of the economic cycle is two. With the deepening of international division of labor, the intra product trade has become an important driving force of economic globalization and important characteristics of world economic development, but also provides a new perspective for the study of economic cycle. However, the research on intra product trade into the economic cycle, until the last century began in 90s, and the slow progress. Therefore, has the important theory the value and significance of the topic of the paper. This paper describes the statistics of nearly 20 years of crisis under the impact of Trade Fluctuation Characteristics of three types of fact. The first category is the overall impact of the crisis on trade phenomenon: The U.S. subprime crisis on the "triangular trade" mode, influence China total export trade; second is the impact of the crisis on Trade: the impact of the U.S. subprime crisis on the intermediate goods sector than non trade of intermediate products trade department, as well as the subprime crisis in the United States than the Asian financial crisis of China export trade especially the export of electromechanical products the third category of trade; trade crisis "overshoot" phenomenon: the 2011 earthquake in Japan caused by intra product specialization, the most concentrated solution of electronic, automotive industry hook "phenomenon of the global supply chain", and during the subprime crisis of the United States Trade Fluctuation phenomenon. The development of the production and trade based on intra product join the trade pattern of intermediate products "2 x 2 x 3" global economic model (IMT-GEM). The deductive logic model for derivation, found in the IMT-GEM model, while the rest of the economy. A constant model to get the steady solution of international economic comovement naturally. Then according to the 2007 U.S. subprime mortgage crisis during the trade cycle is characteristic of establishing transnational matrix theory model. The model shows that the conduction mechanism of the intermediate product deposit effect on trade fluctuations, which confirms the reverse conduction effect of intra product trade on the international economic cycle. On this basis, this paper gives 6 theoretical propositions. Three aspects were carried out empirical conduction mechanism of intra product trade on the international economic cycle based. One is based on the overall perspective, using the panel data of China, East Asia and Europe regional economy test showed that the vertical specialization has positive conduction the effect of international economic cycle, and the conclusion is also robust for the intermediate product trade; the two is based on the industry perspective, the same is not the economy The type of factor intensity industry intermediate product trade panel data test shows that, with the capital / technology intensive strong flow of factors of intermediate goods trade to change labor / resource intensive intermediate product trade, in international economic cycle conduction effect also decreased. The factor mobility, strength and international economic cycle coordination was positively correlated; the three is based on the perspective of crisis, using time series data on multinational end product demand impact on trade of intermediate products were estimated, and the use of export performance panel model to crisis impact of intermediate product deposit effect of transmission mechanism are examined. All of the estimated results support the theoretical expectations. Conclusion the theoretical analysis and empirical Research Based on the proposed two aspects of the international transmission of economic cycle to correctly grasp the intra product trade which is a "double-edged sword" Suggestions: one is to construct a "vertical division" mode of international production network, decentralized intra product specialization system risk, improve the reliability of economic growth. The two is through its own cultivation and introduction of foreign advanced factors, to achieve economic Chinese by international economic cycle co movement with the waves, rising gradually as the international economic cycle co movement leader.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F746;F113.7
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本文編號：1360638