【摘要】：我國(guó)在宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)高速增長(zhǎng)的同時(shí),也經(jīng)歷著巨大的經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)。不論是宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率還是通貨膨脹率都有著非比尋常的波動(dòng)極差。面臨著這樣大的波動(dòng),我國(guó)的中國(guó)人民銀行為保持增長(zhǎng),穩(wěn)定波動(dòng)做出了很大的努力。然而我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)發(fā)生大型轉(zhuǎn)變的現(xiàn)實(shí),使得貨幣政策的傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制也有可能發(fā)生了重大的變化,特別是金融市場(chǎng)的日益繁榮,使得人們對(duì)宏觀(guān)的貨幣政策的預(yù)期越來(lái)越快的顯示在實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)當(dāng)中,如果說(shuō)傳統(tǒng)的貨幣傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制已經(jīng)不占主導(dǎo)地位,那么金融市場(chǎng)又在貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)中起多大的作用?這正是本文研究的課題。本文通過(guò)建立一個(gè)動(dòng)態(tài)隨機(jī)一般均衡的宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)模型來(lái)討論貨幣政策對(duì)實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的作用,單獨(dú)突出金融市場(chǎng)在其中的角色。通過(guò)使用貝葉斯估計(jì),我們找出一個(gè)時(shí)期的貨幣政策會(huì)對(duì)下一期的實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)與金融市場(chǎng)各產(chǎn)生什么作用。主要方法是,用先驗(yàn)分布估算出了模型參數(shù),然后使用卡爾曼濾波算法平滑了估計(jì)模型中的各個(gè)外生變量的實(shí)現(xiàn)值,再將幾個(gè)實(shí)現(xiàn)值帶回到模型中進(jìn)行模擬計(jì)算,這樣我們找到了各個(gè)沖擊的單獨(dú)影響,從眾多的沖擊當(dāng)中找到了比較重要的沖擊。通過(guò)以上的分析我們得出了結(jié)論：第一,金融市場(chǎng)在我國(guó)的貨幣政策的傳導(dǎo)中起了非常重要的作用。第二,通貨膨脹現(xiàn)象由于信貸作用的出現(xiàn)使得金融市場(chǎng)的資產(chǎn)品價(jià)格出現(xiàn)超調(diào)的現(xiàn)象
[Abstract]:At the same time, our country is experiencing huge economic fluctuation while the macro-economy is growing at high speed. Both macroeconomic growth rates and inflation rates are unusually volatile. Faced with such large fluctuations, the people's Bank of China has made great efforts to maintain growth and stability. However, the reality of large-scale changes in the economic structure of our country has made it possible that the transmission mechanism of monetary policy has also undergone major changes, especially the increasing prosperity of the financial market. Make people's expectation of macro-monetary policy more and more rapid in the real economy, if the traditional monetary transmission mechanism is no longer dominant, then the financial market in the transmission of monetary policy plays a significant role. This is the subject of this paper. This paper discusses the effect of monetary policy on the real economy by establishing a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium macroeconomic model and emphasizes the role of financial market in it. By using Bayesian estimates, we find out what monetary policy will do for the next issue of the real economy and the financial market. The main method is to estimate the model parameters with the prior distribution, and then use Kalman filter algorithm to smooth the realization value of each exogenous variable in the estimation model, and then bring back several realization values to the model for simulation calculation. In this way, we find the individual impact of each shock, from many shocks to find a more important impact. First, the financial market plays a very important role in the transmission of monetary policy. Second, inflation is an overshoot in the prices of capital products in the financial markets as a result of the role of credit.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：合肥工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F832.5;F822.0

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