【摘要】：中國(guó)股票市場(chǎng)的劇烈波動(dòng)以及政策預(yù)期的不確定性無(wú)疑加大了國(guó)家相關(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)管理部門(mén)調(diào)控股票市場(chǎng)的難度，降低了國(guó)家利用經(jīng)濟(jì)手段調(diào)節(jié)證券市場(chǎng)的能力和效率。因此，系統(tǒng)深入地研究政府調(diào)控政策變化對(duì)中國(guó)股票市場(chǎng)的影響對(duì)于加強(qiáng)中國(guó)股票市場(chǎng)的管理和控制、改善政府對(duì)股票市場(chǎng)的調(diào)控和監(jiān)管效率，進(jìn)而保障中國(guó)股票市場(chǎng)健康、穩(wěn)定、持續(xù)發(fā)展具有非常重要的理論和現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 本文通過(guò)對(duì)相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)和理論的研究，采用描述性統(tǒng)計(jì)和事件研究法對(duì)2012、2013年農(nóng)業(yè)政策發(fā)布以后短期內(nèi)相關(guān)股票價(jià)格的變動(dòng)進(jìn)行了實(shí)證研究。研究表明：政策發(fā)布后，相關(guān)股票價(jià)格顯著上漲，說(shuō)明短期內(nèi)農(nóng)業(yè)政策的發(fā)布對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)股股票價(jià)格波動(dòng)都有積極影響，都能不同程度的影響相關(guān)股票價(jià)格。但是兩次事件的影響效果不一，影響幅度不斷減小，尤其是深證農(nóng)業(yè)指數(shù)相差較大，這說(shuō)明市場(chǎng)可能對(duì)于農(nóng)業(yè)政策的發(fā)布具有了一定的免疫性，農(nóng)業(yè)政策的發(fā)布不能再像去年那樣強(qiáng)烈刺激農(nóng)業(yè)股票在短期內(nèi)的價(jià)格增長(zhǎng)。 最后，，在前文理論研究和實(shí)證研究的基礎(chǔ)上，指出相關(guān)股票價(jià)格在農(nóng)業(yè)政策發(fā)布以后出現(xiàn)該現(xiàn)象的主要原因:市場(chǎng)有效性不足、政策制定不夠謹(jǐn)慎、尚未建立適當(dāng)?shù)念A(yù)期管理和輿論管理機(jī)制。據(jù)此提出以下政策建議：逐步提高股票市場(chǎng)有效性；完善政策決策、披露與執(zhí)行程序；引導(dǎo)投資者理性投資；加大對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司的支持力度。
[Abstract]:The sharp fluctuation of China's stock market and the uncertainty of policy expectations undoubtedly increase the difficulty of regulating the stock market by the relevant economic management departments of the country, and reduce the ability and efficiency of the state to regulate the stock market by economic means. Therefore, a systematic and in-depth study of the impact of changes in government regulation and control policies on China's stock market will strengthen the management and control of China's stock market, improve the efficiency of government regulation and supervision of the stock market, and thus ensure the health of China's stock market. Stable, sustainable development has very important theoretical and practical significance. Based on the research of relevant literature and theory, this paper makes an empirical study on the changes of stock prices in the short term after the agricultural policy was issued in 2012 and 2013 by using descriptive statistics and event research methods. The results show that the relative stock price increases significantly after the policy is issued, which indicates that the agricultural policy has a positive effect on the volatility of agricultural stock price in the short term, and can affect the related stock price to varying degrees. However, the effects of the two events are different, and the impact range is constantly decreasing, especially the difference in the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's agricultural index, which indicates that the market may have a certain degree of immunity to the promulgation of agricultural policies. The announcement of agricultural policy can no longer strongly stimulate short-term price growth in agricultural stocks as it did last year. Finally, on the basis of the previous theoretical and empirical studies, the paper points out the main reasons for the phenomenon after the agricultural policy is issued: insufficient market effectiveness, inadequate policy making, There has not been a proper mechanism for anticipatory management and public opinion management. Based on this, the author puts forward the following policy suggestions: gradually improving the effectiveness of the stock market; perfecting policy decisions, disclosure and execution procedures; guiding investors to invest rationally; and increasing the support for agricultural listed companies.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F320;F832.51;F224

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