【摘要】：1998年以來，我國住房貨幣化分配改革啟動了商品住房市場的快速發(fā)展，加上工業(yè)化和城市化的快速發(fā)展，城鎮(zhèn)住房制度改革在取得顯著性成就的同時，卻面臨著一個新的問題：城市中買不起經(jīng)濟(jì)適用房，同時也不符合享受廉租住房申請條件的家庭越來越多；既不能享受保障性住房，又無力購買商品住房的家庭也越來越多。這個特殊群體處于社會的夾心層中，而他們的住房問題卻不容忽視。公共租賃住房面向處于夾心層中的新就業(yè)職工、剛畢業(yè)的大學(xué)生和進(jìn)城務(wù)工人員等，屬于政策支持的租賃性住房，是一種過渡周轉(zhuǎn)性住房。通過發(fā)展公共租賃住房，上海將形成一個由廉租房、經(jīng)濟(jì)適用房、公共租賃住房三者共同構(gòu)成的多層次住房保障體系。 本文以上海市公共租賃住房為研究對象，以其供給和需求為研究內(nèi)容，梳理了相關(guān)理論、上海市公共租賃住房的相關(guān)政策和模式，以及國內(nèi)外的研究狀況。在理論層面的探索上主要包括公共住房理論、灰色理論、Logit理論、主成分分析理論和供需理論；上海公共租賃住房政策研究中概況了保障對象、申請條件、保障方式和房源；國內(nèi)研究集中總結(jié)了公共租賃住房的必要性、需求、供給以及出現(xiàn)的問題；國外研究重點介紹了國外對公共住房研究的現(xiàn)狀，美國和新加坡等國家公共住房供應(yīng)、住房補(bǔ)貼和房租控制等方面的成功模式，以及總結(jié)了國內(nèi)外公共住房成功經(jīng)驗的幾點啟示。 上海市公共租賃住房的現(xiàn)狀分析以上海市公共租賃住房推出的必要性為起點，，客觀闡述了上海市公共租賃住房推出的原因，分別是“夾心層”的出現(xiàn)、租賃市場發(fā)展和人才引進(jìn)的需要；然后分析了可能面臨的困境，如需求不斷增加、供給不足、保障方式單一和租金設(shè)置偏高。再結(jié)合上海市公共租賃住房的政策和目前的供需現(xiàn)狀，全面地闡述了上海市公共租賃住房當(dāng)前的主要矛盾。 以上海公共租賃住房供給與需求為切入點，基于對上海市寶山區(qū)住房保障和房屋管理局、相關(guān)公共租賃住房試點小區(qū)和公司職員以及進(jìn)城務(wù)工人員等的社會調(diào)查，通過訪談、問卷調(diào)查、相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)搜索以及文獻(xiàn)查閱，進(jìn)一步通過對統(tǒng)計問卷以及相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)的分析，了解上海市公共租賃住房供給與需求狀況。運(yùn)用灰色GM(1，1)模型對上海市2011-2015年城鎮(zhèn)戶籍常住人口和外來常住人口進(jìn)行預(yù)測，進(jìn)而運(yùn)用人口預(yù)測數(shù)據(jù)對上海市公共租賃住房的需求與供給總量進(jìn)行預(yù)測；運(yùn)用Logit模型對公共租賃住房的需求影響因素進(jìn)行分析，進(jìn)而結(jié)合調(diào)研數(shù)據(jù)對重要影響因素進(jìn)行具體分析；運(yùn)用主成分分析法對公共租賃住房的供給滿意度因素進(jìn)行分析，同樣結(jié)合調(diào)研數(shù)據(jù)對重要影響因素進(jìn)行具體分析。在對上海市公共租賃住房需求和供給的具體分析的基礎(chǔ)上對上海公共租賃住房供需矛盾及原因進(jìn)行分析，結(jié)合公共租賃住房的政策分析結(jié)果及上海公共租賃住房與國際間的比較結(jié)論，對上海公共租賃住房供需平衡提出相應(yīng)的對策和建議。
[Abstract]:Since 1998, China's housing monetization and distribution reform has started the rapid development of the commodity housing market, coupled with the rapid development of industrialization and urbanization, urban housing system reform has made remarkable achievements, but it is facing a new problem: the city can not afford affordable housing, but also does not conform to the application for low-rent housing. There are more and more families who can not enjoy affordable housing and can not afford to buy commercial housing. This special group is in the sandwich layer of society, but their housing problems can not be ignored. By developing public rental housing, Shanghai will form a multi-level housing security system consisting of low-rent housing, affordable housing and public rental housing.
In this paper, Shanghai public rental housing as the research object, its supply and demand as the research content, combed the relevant theory, Shanghai public rental housing policies and models, as well as domestic and foreign research situation. And supply and demand theory; Shanghai public rental housing policy research overview of the object of security, application conditions, security methods and housing sources; domestic research focused on the necessity of public rental housing, demand, supply and problems; foreign research focuses on the status of foreign public housing research, the United States and Singapore and other countries Successful modes of public housing supply, housing subsidy and rent control, and some inspirations from successful experiences of public housing at home and abroad are summarized.
Based on the necessity of the introduction of public rental housing in Shanghai, this paper objectively expounds the reasons for the introduction of public rental housing in Shanghai, which are the emergence of "sandwich layer", the development of rental market and the need of talent introduction, and then analyzes the possible difficulties, such as the increasing demand for public rental housing, and the supply of public rental housing. The main contradictions of public rental housing in Shanghai are comprehensively expounded in the light of the policy of public rental housing in Shanghai and the current supply and demand situation.
Taking the supply and demand of public rental housing in Shanghai as the breakthrough point, based on the social survey of Baoshan District Housing Security and Housing Administration Bureau, relevant public rental housing pilot plots and company staff, and migrant workers, through interviews, questionnaires, relevant data search and literature review, further through statistical inquiry The grey GM (1,1) model is used to forecast the urban household registration permanent population and foreign permanent population in Shanghai from 2011 to 2015, and then the population forecast data is used to forecast the demand and supply of public rental housing in Shanghai. OgIT model is used to analyze the influencing factors of public rental housing demand, and then combined with the survey data to analyze the important influencing factors; principal component analysis is used to analyze the supply satisfaction factors of public rental housing, and also combined with the survey data to analyze the important influencing factors. Based on the specific analysis of the demand and supply of rental housing, this paper analyzes the contradiction between supply and demand of public rental housing in Shanghai and its causes. Combining with the policy analysis of public rental housing and the comparative conclusion between Shanghai and other countries, the paper puts forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions on the balance of supply and demand of public rental housing in Shanghai.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：上海工程技術(shù)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F299.23

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