【摘要】：國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)是一種經(jīng)濟(jì)現(xiàn)象，它的運(yùn)行規(guī)律反映了世界經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展態(tài)勢(shì)。它的流向已成為世界經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行狀況的“晴雨表”。隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化趨勢(shì)的加快，現(xiàn)在國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)發(fā)生了許多新的變化，這些新變化給國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)的重要場(chǎng)所一國(guó)際資本市場(chǎng)的格局帶來了重大影響。對(duì)于我國(guó)而言，資本流動(dòng)的不斷深入，使得我國(guó)的資本市場(chǎng)越來越完善，已經(jīng)成為世界上第四大資本市場(chǎng)，并且是全球資本最具吸引力的地方之一。我國(guó)的資本市場(chǎng)為經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展與改革注入了巨大活力，也為多渠道引進(jìn)國(guó)際資本發(fā)揮著積極作用。然而國(guó)際資本的過度流動(dòng)，也會(huì)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生消極影響。比如說不良貸款引發(fā)的金融危機(jī)，經(jīng)濟(jì)過熱化引發(fā)的經(jīng)濟(jì)泡沫。而且隨著資本的全球化流動(dòng)，使得金融危機(jī)不再局限于某一個(gè)國(guó)家，而會(huì)引發(fā)連鎖反應(yīng)，導(dǎo)致多個(gè)國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)出現(xiàn)問題。本文主要分析國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)對(duì)資本市場(chǎng)的影響，對(duì)今后我國(guó)資本市場(chǎng)的發(fā)展具有現(xiàn)實(shí)的意義。 本文研究國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)對(duì)我國(guó)資本市場(chǎng)的影響，從兩個(gè)方面進(jìn)行闡述。一、國(guó)際直接投資對(duì)各個(gè)產(chǎn)業(yè)的影響。數(shù)據(jù)表明外商對(duì)我國(guó)制造業(yè)影響最大，占50%以上，其次影響較大的是我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)，占10%以上。二、國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)對(duì)股票市場(chǎng)和債券市場(chǎng)的影響。通過建立VAR模型，得出國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)與股票市場(chǎng)存在明顯的正相關(guān)關(guān)系，其中國(guó)際直接投資對(duì)其貢獻(xiàn)率為40%，國(guó)際間接投資貢獻(xiàn)率為10%。股票市場(chǎng)更依賴于國(guó)際直接投資。國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)與債券市場(chǎng)相關(guān)系數(shù)不明顯，可以不作為考慮因素。 針對(duì)上述分析，我國(guó)應(yīng)該控制國(guó)際資本流入制造業(yè)和房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的速度和規(guī)模，優(yōu)化國(guó)內(nèi)的投資環(huán)境，，提高國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)的質(zhì)量。建立風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估體系，防范國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。加強(qiáng)資本市場(chǎng)的國(guó)際合作，推進(jìn)我國(guó)市場(chǎng)的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化進(jìn)程，推動(dòng)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:International capital flow is an economic phenomenon, its operation law reflects the development trend of the world economy. Its flow has become a barometer of the state of the world economy. With the acceleration of the trend of economic globalization, many new changes have taken place in the international capital flow. These new changes have brought great influence to the pattern of the international capital market, which is the important place of the international capital flow. For our country, the capital market has become the fourth largest capital market in the world, and it is one of the most attractive places in the world. China's capital market has injected great vitality into the economic development and reform, and has also played an active role in the introduction of international capital through various channels. However, the excessive flow of international capital will also have a negative impact on the economy. For example, the financial crisis caused by non-performing loans, the economic bubble caused by economic overheating. And with the globalization of capital flow, the financial crisis is no longer confined to one country, but will trigger a chain reaction, leading to economic problems in many countries. This paper mainly analyzes the influence of international capital flow on capital market, which is of practical significance to the development of China's capital market in the future. This paper studies the influence of international capital flow on China's capital market and expounds it from two aspects. First, the impact of international direct investment on various industries. The data show that foreign investment has the greatest influence on our manufacturing industry, accounting for more than 50%, followed by the real estate industry in China, accounting for more than 10%. Second, the influence of international capital flow on stock market and bond market. By establishing VAR model, the positive correlation between international capital flow and stock market is obtained, in which the contribution rate of international direct investment to stock market is 40 and that of international indirect investment is 10. The stock market is more dependent on international direct investment. The correlation coefficient between international capital flow and bond market is not obvious and can not be considered as a factor. In view of the above analysis, China should control the speed and scale of international capital flowing into manufacturing and real estate industry, optimize the domestic investment environment and improve the quality of international capital flow. Establish a risk assessment system to guard against the risk of international capital flows. Strengthen the international cooperation of the capital market, promote the standardization process of our country's market, promote our country's economic development.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：貴州財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F832.5;F831.7

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