【摘要】：隨著房地產(chǎn)市場的不斷發(fā)展以及住房制度改革的不斷深化，蘭州市住宅的商品化程度大幅提高，住房消費也在城市居民生活消費中占據(jù)了十分重要的位置，房價問題曰益成為關注焦點，研究蘭州市商品住宅價格時空變化，具有重要的理論和現(xiàn)實意義。 本文以蘭州市中心四區(qū)1997年至2011年商品住宅價格樣本數(shù)據(jù)為基礎，應用Excel的統(tǒng)計分析功能描繪商品住宅價格散點圖和柱形圖，分析其總體變化趨勢以及各個區(qū)商品住宅均價的時間變化特點，揭示時間變化規(guī)律；應用地理信息系統(tǒng)軟件建立蘭州市商品住宅價格空間數(shù)據(jù)庫，對商品住宅樓盤信息進行數(shù)字化處理并制作專題地圖，通過住宅價格空間分布圖，分析商品住宅價格空間變化特點，揭示空間變化規(guī)律；通過對蘭州市房地產(chǎn)價格影響因素的定性分析，確定了房地產(chǎn)價格的影響因素，并分析了各因素如何對房價變動起作用。通過分析得出了以下結論： （1)時間變化方面，1997年到2011年，蘭州市中心四區(qū)商品住宅價格總體上不斷上升，由1997年的2496元/m~2上漲到2011年的6104元/m~2，年平均增幅為14.19%。商品住宅價格略低于商品房價格，兩者走勢大體相同；各區(qū)商品住宅價格漲幅差異明顯，城關區(qū)、七里河區(qū)、安寧區(qū)、西固區(qū)的漲幅分別為18.20%、16.26%、17.45%、11.03%。（2)空間變化方面，房價呈現(xiàn)帶狀圈層式分布規(guī)律，城關區(qū)、七里河區(qū)西站、 安寧區(qū)沿河一帶為中心向周邊遞減，中心區(qū)域9000元/m~2至15000元/m~2的價格區(qū)間，，遞減至周邊區(qū)域3000元/m~2到8000元/m~2的價格區(qū)間。安寧區(qū)沿南北濱河路一帶房價明顯高于該區(qū)其他區(qū)域。CBD對房價的影響明顯，蘭州的城市中心商務區(qū)城關區(qū)中心房價最高。交通干線對房價影響明顯，交通發(fā)達程度直接決定了該區(qū)域的房價高低。城關區(qū)的九州開發(fā)區(qū)、東崗鎮(zhèn)-紅山根一帶、西固區(qū)的大部分地區(qū)為房價低值區(qū)。（3)從影響因素來看，影響商品住宅價格的最主要因素為供給因素，需求因 素，金融因素和區(qū)位因素，作為供給因素的房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)投資額、竣工房屋面積、竣工房屋價值等指標大幅增加，但由于供給結構不合理，有效供給不足，導致價格不斷上升；作為需求因素的商品房銷售面積、城市人均居住使用面積，居民收入等也持續(xù)上升，需求增加激化供需矛盾導致價格上漲；金融因素包括企業(yè)和個人從金融機構可獲得的資金總和，這一因素同時作用于供給和需求，在房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)和消費環(huán)節(jié)商業(yè)貸款比例過大導致金融風險加大；區(qū)位因素對蘭州市房價的影響比較大，主要影響因素為交通，距市中心的距離，環(huán)境等。
[Abstract]:With the continuous development of the real estate market and the deepening of housing system reform, the degree of housing commercialization in Lanzhou City has been greatly improved, and housing consumption has also occupied a very important position in urban residents' daily consumption. The problem of house price has become the focus of attention. It is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the temporal and spatial changes of commodity housing prices in Lanzhou. Based on the sample data of commodity housing prices from 1997 to 2011 in the central four districts of Lanzhou City, this paper applies the statistical analysis function of Excel to depict the scattered and columnar charts of commodity housing prices. This paper analyzes the general change trend and the time change characteristics of the average price of commercial housing in various districts, reveals the law of time change, and establishes the spatial database of the commodity house price in Lanzhou City by using GIS software. The information of commercial residential buildings is digitally processed and thematic maps are made. Through the spatial distribution map of housing prices, the characteristics of spatial changes of commodity housing prices are analyzed, and the laws of spatial changes are revealed. Based on the qualitative analysis of the influencing factors of real estate prices in Lanzhou, this paper determines the influencing factors of real estate prices, and analyzes how each factor plays an important role in the change of real estate prices. The conclusions are as follows: (1) from 1997 to 2011, the price of commercial housing in the four districts of Lanzhou city center has been rising, from 2496 yuan / m ~ (2) in 1997 to 6104 yuan / m ~ (2) in 2011, with an average annual increase of 14.19%. Commodity housing prices are slightly lower than commercial housing prices, and the two trends are roughly the same; there is a marked difference in the increase in commodity housing prices in various districts. The increase in Chengguan District, Qilihe District, Anning District and Xigu District is 18.20 and 16.26 and 17.45 respectively. (2) in terms of spatial changes, Housing prices show a zonal distribution pattern. Chengguan District, Qilihe District West Station, Anning District along the River area are the center of the decline toward the periphery, the central area of the price range of 9000 yuan / mt2 to 15000 yuan / mm2, is a price range of 9000 yuan / m ~ (2) to 15000 yuan / m ~ (2). A range of $3000 / m-2 to $8000 / mm2 decreasing to the surrounding area. The housing price along the north and south riverside road in Anning district is obviously higher than that in other areas. CBD has obvious influence on the house price, and the central housing price in the city central business district of Lanzhou is the highest. The traffic trunk has obvious influence on the housing price, and the degree of traffic development directly determines the housing price in this area. Jiuzhou Development Zone in Chengguan District, Donggang Township-Hongshanggen area, and most areas in Xigu District are low-value housing prices. (3) from the perspective of influencing factors, the most important factors affecting commodity housing prices are supply factors, and demand is due to factors. Financial factors and location factors, as a supply factor of real estate development investment, completed housing area, completed housing value and other indicators increased significantly, but due to unreasonable supply structure, insufficient effective supply, resulting in rising prices; As a demand factor of commercial housing sales area, urban per capita living area, residents' income and so on continue to rise, the increase of demand sharpens the contradiction between supply and demand, leading to price rise; Financial factors include the sum of funds that enterprises and individuals can obtain from financial institutions. This factor acts on both supply and demand. The excessive proportion of commercial loans in real estate development and consumption leads to increased financial risks. Location factors have great influence on house price in Lanzhou. The main influencing factors are traffic, distance from city center, environment and so on.
【學位授予單位】：西北師范大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F299.23

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