基于信貸渠道的我國貨幣政策區(qū)域效應(yīng)的數(shù)量分析
發(fā)布時間：2018-07-24 14:15
【摘要】：貨幣政策是指中央銀行為實(shí)現(xiàn)其特定的經(jīng)濟(jì)目標(biāo)而采用的各種控制和調(diào)節(jié)貨幣供應(yīng)量或信貸規(guī)模的方針和措施的總稱,是一個國家調(diào)控宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的核心手段。自2008年美國次貸危機(jī)爆發(fā)以來,全球經(jīng)濟(jì)急劇惡化,國際經(jīng)濟(jì)金融形勢更加復(fù)雜、我國的外部經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境日益嚴(yán)峻,致使政府部門貨幣政策的制定和實(shí)施都面臨更大挑戰(zhàn)。 經(jīng)過四年的調(diào)整,進(jìn)入到2012年,上次金融危機(jī)對全球主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體產(chǎn)生的影響,依然沒有完全消除。受制于海外經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩,外需疲弱和人民幣匯率上一年顯著升值等因素,我國外部環(huán)境較差。直接導(dǎo)致拉動我國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的三駕馬車之一的出口增速大幅降低,甚至對經(jīng)濟(jì)增速的貢獻(xiàn)為負(fù)。投資和消費(fèi)的增長也有不同程度的減弱,這一系列因素導(dǎo)致上半年經(jīng)濟(jì)失速較多。面對這種情況,央行開始加大貨幣政策的力度：在上半年降準(zhǔn)降息各兩次。下半年我國經(jīng)濟(jì)逐漸企穩(wěn)：7-8月國內(nèi)房地產(chǎn)市場銷售量價齊升：9月歐美發(fā)達(dá)國家開始了新一輪的貨幣寬松,外部風(fēng)險降低,國內(nèi)數(shù)據(jù)也有好轉(zhuǎn)。相應(yīng)地,下半年國內(nèi)貨幣政策放松力度減弱,央行不再通過降準(zhǔn)來維持市場流動性,而是頻繁使用公開市場操作中逆回購工具向市場注入流動性,貨幣政策趨于穩(wěn)健。 本文把貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制作為研究起點(diǎn),先對國外研究貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)理論進(jìn)行梳理,比較貨幣渠道和信用渠道兩大傳導(dǎo)理論。再結(jié)合我國實(shí)際情況,分析我國貨幣政策的各種傳導(dǎo)渠道,發(fā)現(xiàn)信用渠道中的銀行信貸渠道在貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)過程中的作用最為明顯,并確定圍繞信貸渠道展開后面的實(shí)證分析。 選取2000年到2008年,全國31個省、市、自治區(qū)的省級面板數(shù)據(jù),根據(jù)金融機(jī)構(gòu)貸款期限的長短對信貸總額分類,建立動態(tài)面板數(shù)據(jù)模型。在針對我國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長與金融機(jī)構(gòu)信貸結(jié)構(gòu)的關(guān)系做經(jīng)驗(yàn)分析時,分別選用面板工具變量法、差分GMM法和系統(tǒng)GMM法對動態(tài)面板數(shù)據(jù)模型進(jìn)行回歸估計,將三種方法的估計結(jié)果對比分析,并最終選用系統(tǒng)GMM法的估計結(jié)果做最后的解釋。另外,在對再做基于信貸渠道的區(qū)域效應(yīng)差異性分析時,繼續(xù)選用系統(tǒng)GMM法對分別估計東、中、西三個地區(qū)的動態(tài)面板數(shù)據(jù)模型進(jìn)行估計。 結(jié)果,實(shí)證分析表明工業(yè)貸款當(dāng)期對中部地區(qū)國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的影響最大,其次是西部地區(qū),對東部地區(qū)的影響最小。商業(yè)貸款在當(dāng)期對國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的影響呈現(xiàn)東、中、西依次遞減的態(tài)勢。農(nóng)業(yè)貸款當(dāng)期對中部地區(qū)國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的影響也最大,但影響最小的是西部地區(qū)�；窘ㄔO(shè)貸款在當(dāng)期對國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的影響按東、中、西的順序依次增大,且各地區(qū)的基本建設(shè)貸款的滯后一期對當(dāng)期國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值也表現(xiàn)出明顯的影響。另外,各地區(qū)的工業(yè)貸款滯后一期對當(dāng)期國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的影響均不顯著；商業(yè)貸款滯后一期值只有東部地區(qū)的影響較顯著且最強(qiáng)；而各地區(qū)的農(nóng)業(yè)貸款滯后一期對當(dāng)期國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的影響都表現(xiàn)出負(fù)的作用,以東部地區(qū)尤為顯著。 最后根據(jù)實(shí)證分析得出的結(jié)論,提出縮小貨幣政策的區(qū)域效應(yīng)的若干政策建議。 全文共分5大部分： 第一部分是緒論。先是介紹本文的選題背景及研究意義；再闡述了本文的主要內(nèi)容和研究思路；最后總結(jié)了本文的主要特色與不足。 第二部分是文獻(xiàn)綜述。這部分主要從理論、實(shí)證和研究方法等層面展開,總結(jié)了國內(nèi)外對貨幣政策區(qū)域效應(yīng)的存在性、原因、差異的比較和傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制方面的一些觀點(diǎn),并對它們做了進(jìn)一步的分類評述。 第三部分是本文實(shí)證研究的理論基礎(chǔ)。從貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)渠道理論的研究入手。闡述了貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)理論,并從傳導(dǎo)渠道角度展開,詳細(xì)介紹了貨幣和信用這兩大傳導(dǎo)渠道的理論。同時描述了當(dāng)前我國貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)渠道的基本情況,為后文實(shí)證分析及檢驗(yàn)做好了理論鋪墊工作。 第四部分是本文的實(shí)證部分。從傳導(dǎo)較為明顯的信貸渠道出發(fā),對我國貨幣政策的區(qū)域效應(yīng)做具體的實(shí)證分析,這也是本文的主體部分。依據(jù)第二部分的理論框架,首先做經(jīng)驗(yàn)分析,即按照全國的數(shù)據(jù),分析經(jīng)過細(xì)分后的四種金融機(jī)構(gòu)貸款額對全國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長影響的主要原因。再然后做區(qū)域效應(yīng)的差異性分析,即按東、中、西三個面板數(shù)據(jù),分析三個地區(qū)經(jīng)過細(xì)分后的四種金融機(jī)構(gòu)貸款額對它們各自經(jīng)濟(jì)增長影響存在差異性的原因。 第五部分是本文的結(jié)論與建議。主要從研究結(jié)論、政策建議、研究不足及進(jìn)一步研究的方向等方面對全文做一次完整總結(jié)和梳理。
[Abstract]:Monetary policy is the general name of the policy and measures adopted by the central bank to control and regulate the amount of money supply or credit in order to achieve its specific economic goals. It is the core measure of a country's macroeconomic control. Since the outbreak of the United States subprime crisis in 2008, the global economy has deteriorated rapidly and the international economic and financial situation is more serious. The complexity of China's external economic environment is increasingly severe, resulting in greater challenges to the formulation and implementation of monetary policy in government departments.
After four years of adjustment and entry into 2012, the impact of the last financial crisis on the major economies of the world has not been completely eliminated. It is affected by the factors such as the slowdown of the overseas economy, weak foreign demand and the significant appreciation of the RMB exchange rate in the last year. The environment of the foreign countries is poor. One of the three carriages that lead to the economic growth of our country directly leads to one of the reasons. At the same time, the central bank began to increase its monetary policy in the first half of the first half of the year. The second half of the second half of China's economy gradually stabilized: 7-8 In September, the sales price of the domestic real estate market rose steadily. In September, the developed countries of Europe and the United States began a new round of monetary easing, the external risk decreased, and the domestic data improved. Accordingly, the relaxation of domestic monetary policy was weakened in the second half of the year, and the central bank was no longer able to maintain market liquidity by reducing the accuracy, but frequently used reverse repurchase in open market operation. Liquidity is being injected into the market and monetary policy is becoming more robust.
This paper takes the monetary policy transmission mechanism as the starting point, first combs the foreign research of monetary policy transmission theory, compares the two transmission theories of monetary channel and credit channel, and then analyzes various channels of monetary policy in our country by combining the actual situation of our country, and finds that the bank credit channels in the credit channels have been transmitted in monetary policy. The role of the process is most obvious, and the empirical analysis around the credit channel is confirmed.
From 2000 to 2008, the provincial panel data of 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions of the country were selected to establish a dynamic panel data model based on the length of loan term of financial institutions. In the case of empirical analysis on the relationship between economic growth and the credit structure of financial institutions, the panel tool variable method, the differential GMM method and the difference method were used respectively. The system GMM method carries out the regression estimation to the dynamic panel data model, compares and analyses the estimated results of the three methods, and finally uses the estimation results of the system GMM method to make the final explanation. In addition, the system GMM method is used to estimate the East, middle, and West three regions, respectively, when the regional effect difference analysis based on the credit channel is re done. The dynamic panel data model is estimated.
The results show that the impact of industrial loan on the gross domestic product of the central region is the greatest, followed by the western region, and the impact on the eastern region is the least. The impact of commercial loans on GDP in the current period shows the trend of decreasing in the East, middle and West. The impact of the current period of agricultural loan on the GDP of the central region is also In the current period, the impact of basic construction loans on GDP increases in the order of East, middle and West, and the lag phase of basic construction loans in each region also has a significant impact on the current GDP. In addition, industrial loans in each region are lagging behind the current domestic production. The impact of GDP is not significant. Only the eastern region has a significant and strongest impact on the lags of commercial loans, while the lag phase of agricultural loans in each region has a negative effect on the current gross domestic product, especially in the eastern region.
Finally, according to the conclusions drawn from the empirical analysis, we propose some policy recommendations to narrow the regional effect of monetary policy.
The full text is divided into 5 parts:
The first part is the introduction. First, it introduces the background and significance of the topic, and then expounds the main contents and research ideas of this article; finally, it summarizes the main features and shortcomings of this article.
The second part is the literature review. This part is mainly from the theoretical, empirical and research methods and so on. It summarizes the existence, the reasons, the differences and the transmission mechanism of the regional effects of monetary policy at home and abroad, and makes a further classification review on them.
The third part is the theoretical basis of this empirical study. Starting with the research on the theory of monetary policy transmission channel, this paper expounds the transmission theory of monetary policy, and introduces the theory of the two major channels of currency and credit in detail from the perspective of transmission channels, and describes the basic situation of the current channel of monetary policy in China. Empirical analysis and test have done a good job in theoretical foreshadowing.
The fourth part is the empirical part of this article. From the transmission of more obvious credit channels, this paper makes a concrete empirical analysis on the regional effect of monetary policy in China. This is the main part of this article. According to the theoretical framework of the second part, the first part of the empirical analysis, that is, according to the national data, the analysis of the subdivision of the four types of financial institutions loan. The main reasons for the impact of the amount on the national economic growth. Then, the difference analysis of the regional effects, that is, three panel data in the East, middle and West, is used to analyze the differences in the impact of the loan amount of the four financial institutions in the three regions on their economic growth.
The fifth part is the conclusion and suggestion of this article. It mainly summarizes and combs the full text from the conclusion, the policy suggestion, the lack of research and the direction of further research.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F822.0;F832.4;F224
本文編號：2141634
[Abstract]:Monetary policy is the general name of the policy and measures adopted by the central bank to control and regulate the amount of money supply or credit in order to achieve its specific economic goals. It is the core measure of a country's macroeconomic control. Since the outbreak of the United States subprime crisis in 2008, the global economy has deteriorated rapidly and the international economic and financial situation is more serious. The complexity of China's external economic environment is increasingly severe, resulting in greater challenges to the formulation and implementation of monetary policy in government departments.
After four years of adjustment and entry into 2012, the impact of the last financial crisis on the major economies of the world has not been completely eliminated. It is affected by the factors such as the slowdown of the overseas economy, weak foreign demand and the significant appreciation of the RMB exchange rate in the last year. The environment of the foreign countries is poor. One of the three carriages that lead to the economic growth of our country directly leads to one of the reasons. At the same time, the central bank began to increase its monetary policy in the first half of the first half of the year. The second half of the second half of China's economy gradually stabilized: 7-8 In September, the sales price of the domestic real estate market rose steadily. In September, the developed countries of Europe and the United States began a new round of monetary easing, the external risk decreased, and the domestic data improved. Accordingly, the relaxation of domestic monetary policy was weakened in the second half of the year, and the central bank was no longer able to maintain market liquidity by reducing the accuracy, but frequently used reverse repurchase in open market operation. Liquidity is being injected into the market and monetary policy is becoming more robust.
This paper takes the monetary policy transmission mechanism as the starting point, first combs the foreign research of monetary policy transmission theory, compares the two transmission theories of monetary channel and credit channel, and then analyzes various channels of monetary policy in our country by combining the actual situation of our country, and finds that the bank credit channels in the credit channels have been transmitted in monetary policy. The role of the process is most obvious, and the empirical analysis around the credit channel is confirmed.
From 2000 to 2008, the provincial panel data of 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions of the country were selected to establish a dynamic panel data model based on the length of loan term of financial institutions. In the case of empirical analysis on the relationship between economic growth and the credit structure of financial institutions, the panel tool variable method, the differential GMM method and the difference method were used respectively. The system GMM method carries out the regression estimation to the dynamic panel data model, compares and analyses the estimated results of the three methods, and finally uses the estimation results of the system GMM method to make the final explanation. In addition, the system GMM method is used to estimate the East, middle, and West three regions, respectively, when the regional effect difference analysis based on the credit channel is re done. The dynamic panel data model is estimated.
The results show that the impact of industrial loan on the gross domestic product of the central region is the greatest, followed by the western region, and the impact on the eastern region is the least. The impact of commercial loans on GDP in the current period shows the trend of decreasing in the East, middle and West. The impact of the current period of agricultural loan on the GDP of the central region is also In the current period, the impact of basic construction loans on GDP increases in the order of East, middle and West, and the lag phase of basic construction loans in each region also has a significant impact on the current GDP. In addition, industrial loans in each region are lagging behind the current domestic production. The impact of GDP is not significant. Only the eastern region has a significant and strongest impact on the lags of commercial loans, while the lag phase of agricultural loans in each region has a negative effect on the current gross domestic product, especially in the eastern region.
Finally, according to the conclusions drawn from the empirical analysis, we propose some policy recommendations to narrow the regional effect of monetary policy.
The full text is divided into 5 parts:
The first part is the introduction. First, it introduces the background and significance of the topic, and then expounds the main contents and research ideas of this article; finally, it summarizes the main features and shortcomings of this article.
The second part is the literature review. This part is mainly from the theoretical, empirical and research methods and so on. It summarizes the existence, the reasons, the differences and the transmission mechanism of the regional effects of monetary policy at home and abroad, and makes a further classification review on them.
The third part is the theoretical basis of this empirical study. Starting with the research on the theory of monetary policy transmission channel, this paper expounds the transmission theory of monetary policy, and introduces the theory of the two major channels of currency and credit in detail from the perspective of transmission channels, and describes the basic situation of the current channel of monetary policy in China. Empirical analysis and test have done a good job in theoretical foreshadowing.
The fourth part is the empirical part of this article. From the transmission of more obvious credit channels, this paper makes a concrete empirical analysis on the regional effect of monetary policy in China. This is the main part of this article. According to the theoretical framework of the second part, the first part of the empirical analysis, that is, according to the national data, the analysis of the subdivision of the four types of financial institutions loan. The main reasons for the impact of the amount on the national economic growth. Then, the difference analysis of the regional effects, that is, three panel data in the East, middle and West, is used to analyze the differences in the impact of the loan amount of the four financial institutions in the three regions on their economic growth.
The fifth part is the conclusion and suggestion of this article. It mainly summarizes and combs the full text from the conclusion, the policy suggestion, the lack of research and the direction of further research.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F822.0;F832.4;F224
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