本文選題：租賃決策 + 凈現(xiàn)值法　； 參考：《中央民族大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：飛機(jī)租賃是當(dāng)今世界各國(guó)航空公司更新和擴(kuò)充機(jī)隊(duì)的基本手段之一。在我國(guó),飛機(jī)租賃方興未艾,大部分的航空公司都已開(kāi)展飛機(jī)租賃業(yè)務(wù)以融資融物,以支持航空公司快速發(fā)展。租賃業(yè)務(wù)在發(fā)展深化的過(guò)程中衍生出許多種方式,每種方式之間又具有差異化,所以在面對(duì)不同租賃方式的選擇時(shí),航空公司就需要選擇一個(gè)最佳租賃方式。所謂租賃決策就是要在不同條件下,分析每種的方式的利弊所在,通過(guò)全面、有效的價(jià)值評(píng)估,做出最佳的方案選擇。租賃決策的有效性事關(guān)企業(yè)資金使用的合理性和效率,是企業(yè)盈利的重要支撐。 航空運(yùn)輸市場(chǎng)隨著全球經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境的起伏而波動(dòng),航空公司投資決策需要考慮的一個(gè)重要因素就是未來(lái)市場(chǎng)的不確定性對(duì)公司發(fā)展的影響。經(jīng)營(yíng)性租賃飛機(jī)以其較低的綜合成本、較高的靈活性而成為航空公司的現(xiàn)實(shí)選擇。傳統(tǒng)的現(xiàn)金流折現(xiàn)(如凈現(xiàn)值法、內(nèi)部收益率法等)方法在進(jìn)行租賃項(xiàng)目評(píng)估時(shí)往往隱含著一些不切實(shí)際的假設(shè),如租賃項(xiàng)目不能中途撤銷、租賃到期時(shí)不能續(xù)租或者留置等。也就是說(shuō)傳統(tǒng)的現(xiàn)金流折現(xiàn)方法認(rèn)為項(xiàng)目在未來(lái)不能做出任何調(diào)整和變化。因此,經(jīng)營(yíng)靈活性項(xiàng)目以及具有戰(zhàn)略增長(zhǎng)性項(xiàng)目在投資決策評(píng)價(jià)時(shí)往往會(huì)被低估項(xiàng)目?jī)r(jià)值,導(dǎo)致錯(cuò)失投資機(jī)會(huì)。飛機(jī)經(jīng)營(yíng)租賃決策中存在著類似于金融期權(quán)的選擇權(quán),如能準(zhǔn)確定量的把它們計(jì)算出來(lái),則對(duì)科學(xué)決策有很大的幫助。 針對(duì)傳統(tǒng)現(xiàn)金流折現(xiàn)方法的不足,本文在參考國(guó)內(nèi)和國(guó)際租賃決策理論研究的基礎(chǔ)上,集中研究了實(shí)物期權(quán)方法在租賃決策中的運(yùn)用本文第一步先分析了租賃項(xiàng)目中的不確定性和租賃管理的靈活性,闡述了傳統(tǒng)租賃決策方法對(duì)于具有選擇權(quán)的租賃項(xiàng)目評(píng)估時(shí)的缺陷和不足。隨后,本文引入了實(shí)物期權(quán)的理論和方法,詳細(xì)的介紹了實(shí)物期權(quán)的原理及應(yīng)用,并且證明了在具有靈活性特征的經(jīng)營(yíng)租賃項(xiàng)目中應(yīng)用實(shí)物期權(quán)法進(jìn)行租賃決策評(píng)估的科學(xué)性。最后以飛機(jī)經(jīng)營(yíng)性租賃決策為例進(jìn)行了實(shí)物期權(quán)的特征分析,并且建立了一個(gè)實(shí)物期權(quán)決策模型,比較了傳統(tǒng)的租賃決策的方法和實(shí)物期權(quán)方法的差異,得出了實(shí)物期權(quán)方法更加科學(xué)、有效的結(jié)論。
[Abstract]:Aircraft leasing is one of the basic means for airlines in the world to renew and expand their fleet. In China, aircraft leasing is in the ascendant. Most airlines have launched aircraft leasing business to finance and finance to support the rapid development of airlines. In the process of the development and deepening of leasing business, there are many kinds of ways, and there are differences between each way, so in the face of different leasing methods, airlines need to choose the best lease mode. The so-called leasing decision is to analyze the advantages and disadvantages of each way under different conditions, and make the best option through comprehensive and effective value evaluation. The validity of leasing decision is related to the rationality and efficiency of the use of enterprise funds, and is an important support for enterprise profits. The air transport market fluctuates with the global economic environment. One of the important factors to be considered in the decision making of airline investment is the influence of the uncertainty of the future market on the development of the airline. Because of its low comprehensive cost and high flexibility, operating leased aircraft has become a realistic choice for airlines. The traditional method of discounting cash flow (such as net present value method, internal rate of return method, etc.) often implies some impractical assumptions in the evaluation of leasing project, such as the lease item can not be revoked halfway, the lease can not be renewed or retained when lease expires, and so on. That is to say, the traditional cash flow discounting method thinks that the project can not make any adjustment and change in the future. Therefore, flexible projects and strategic growth projects are often underestimated in investment decision evaluation, resulting in missed investment opportunities. There are options similar to financial options in aircraft leasing decisions. If they can be calculated accurately and quantitatively, they will be of great help to scientific decision making. In view of the deficiency of the traditional cash flow discounting method, this paper makes reference to the domestic and international leasing decision theory. This paper focuses on the application of real option method in lease decision. The first step of this paper is to analyze the uncertainty of lease project and the flexibility of lease management. The defects and shortcomings of the traditional leasing decision method in the evaluation of leasing items with option are expounded. Then, this paper introduces the theory and method of real option, introduces the principle and application of real option in detail, and proves that it is scientific to apply real option method to lease decision evaluation in the flexible leasing project. Finally, the paper analyzes the characteristics of real options with the example of aircraft operating lease decision, and establishes a real option decision model, and compares the difference between the traditional lease decision method and the real option method. The conclusion that the real option method is more scientific and effective.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中央民族大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F832.49;F562.6

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