本文選題：分析師 + 盈利預測　； 參考：《復旦大學》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：與一般投資者相比,證券分析師具有專業(yè)優(yōu)勢和信息優(yōu)勢,能夠通過發(fā)布盈利預測向資本市場提供新的信息,從而減少資本市場的信息不對稱,提高資源配置效率。大量研究表明,分析師的盈利預測具有一定的準確性和價值相關(guān)性,但影響分析師盈利預測準確性的因素較多,主要可以分為目標公司方面的影響因素和分析師方面的影響因素。本文主要研究實地調(diào)研對分析師盈利預測準確性的影響,是對分析師方面影響因素研究的一個有效補充。 本文以2008～2010年中國證券分析師的盈利預測和實地調(diào)研數(shù)據(jù)為樣本,對實地調(diào)研對分析師盈利預測準確性的影響,以及目標公司盈余管理動機、信息披露質(zhì)量對這種影響的作用進行了深入研究,研究結(jié)果表明,目前我國分析師的實地調(diào)研具有一定的有效性。 本文發(fā)現(xiàn),實地調(diào)研能夠顯著降低分析師盈利預測的誤差,提高盈利預測的準確性,即實地調(diào)研作為分析師獲取私有信息的重要渠道,能夠提供有價值的信息。本文的實證結(jié)果也為之前學者的研究提供了證據(jù)支持,即預測期的長短、目標公司的規(guī)模、盈利波動性、盈余管理動機的存在會對分析師盈利預測準確性產(chǎn)生負向影響,而信息披露質(zhì)量、目標公司得到的分析師關(guān)注度會對分析師盈利預測準確性產(chǎn)生正向影響。 本文還發(fā)現(xiàn),對于存在明顯盈余管理動機和信息披露質(zhì)量較低的公司進行實地調(diào)研,對分析師盈利預測準確性的提高效應越大。因為在這類公司中,公共信息的可獲得性較差、信息質(zhì)量較低,針對這些公司的實地調(diào)研所獲取的私有信息具有更高的邊際收益,是對公共信息披露不足的一種有效補充。
[Abstract]:Compared with general investors, securities analysts have professional advantages and information advantages, and can provide new information to the capital market by issuing profit forecasts, thus reducing the information asymmetry in the capital market and improving the efficiency of resource allocation. A large number of studies have shown that analysts' earnings forecasts have certain accuracy and value correlation, but there are many factors that affect the accuracy of analysts' earnings forecasts. It can be divided into the influence factors of the target company and the influence factors of the analysts. This paper focuses on the impact of field research on the accuracy of analysts' earnings forecasts, which is an effective complement to the research on the factors affecting analysts. This paper takes the profit forecast and field survey data of Chinese securities analysts from 2008 to 2010 as samples to analyze the impact of field research on the accuracy of analysts' earnings forecast, as well as the earnings management motivation of target companies. The effect of the quality of information disclosure on this kind of influence has been studied in depth. The results show that the field research of Chinese analysts is effective. This paper finds that field research can significantly reduce the error of analysts' earnings forecasts and improve the accuracy of earnings forecasts. As an important channel for analysts to obtain private information, field research can provide valuable information. The empirical results of this paper also provide evidence support for previous studies, that is, the length of the forecast period, the size of the target company, the volatility of earnings, and the existence of earnings management motivation will have a negative impact on the accuracy of analysts' earnings forecast. And the quality of information disclosure and the analyst focus on target companies will have a positive impact on the accuracy of analysts' earnings forecasts. It is also found that the higher the accuracy of analysts' earnings forecasts, the greater the effect of field research on companies with obvious earnings management motivation and low disclosure quality. Because of the poor availability of public information and the low quality of information in these companies, the private information obtained by field research for these companies has higher marginal income, which is an effective supplement to the insufficient disclosure of public information.
【學位授予單位】：復旦大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F832.51;F275

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