本文選題：人工神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò) + BP算法　； 參考：《華東理工大學》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著人們對投資思想的重視,人們在日常活動中越來越關(guān)注股市。然而股票投資屬于一種高風險和高收益并存的投資領(lǐng)域,因此投資者們一直都非常關(guān)注有關(guān)股票價格的預(yù)測。自從股票市場開始出現(xiàn),它就一直為國內(nèi)外的許多學者所研究,同時眾多的有關(guān)股票價格的預(yù)測方法也相應(yīng)被提出。本文在基于各種分析之后提出了利用三層BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)來構(gòu)建股票預(yù)測模型。然而傳統(tǒng)的BP網(wǎng)絡(luò)尚存諸多不足之處,例如對初始權(quán)值的敏感、算法搜索時很難達到全局最優(yōu)值、訓練速率較慢等,因此應(yīng)用于股票預(yù)測的效果欠佳�；谝陨洗嬖诘娜毕�,本文提出首先使用主成分分析法預(yù)處理網(wǎng)絡(luò)輸入變量,可以減少變量維數(shù),降低股價數(shù)據(jù)的噪聲。然后利用遺傳算法優(yōu)化網(wǎng)絡(luò)參數(shù),在網(wǎng)絡(luò)訓練過程中,選擇LM算法以避免網(wǎng)絡(luò)陷入局部極小值并促進網(wǎng)絡(luò)的收斂速度。最后,詳細討論了網(wǎng)絡(luò)的拓撲結(jié)構(gòu)及其參數(shù)的確定原則,例如隱含層節(jié)點數(shù)和訓練參數(shù)等。預(yù)測結(jié)果表明本文使用的優(yōu)化算法的可行性。
[Abstract]:With the attention of people to the investment thought, people pay more and more attention to the stock market in their daily activities. However, stock investment is a high risk and high yield investment field, so investors have been very concerned about the stock price forecast. Since the emergence of stock market, it has been studied by many scholars both at home and abroad, and many forecasting methods about stock price have been put forward accordingly. In this paper, based on various analyses, a three-layer BP neural network is proposed to build stock forecasting model. However, the traditional BP network still has many shortcomings, such as sensitivity to initial weights, difficulty to reach the global optimal value in algorithm search, slow training rate, and so on, so the effect of applying it to stock prediction is not good. Based on the above defects, this paper proposes that the principal component analysis (PCA) is first used to preprocess the input variables of the network, which can reduce the dimension of variables and reduce the noise of stock price data. Then genetic algorithm is used to optimize the network parameters. In the process of network training, LM algorithm is selected to avoid the network falling into a local minimum and to promote the convergence speed of the network. Finally, the topological structure of the network and the determination principle of its parameters, such as the number of hidden layer nodes and the training parameters, are discussed in detail. The prediction results show the feasibility of the optimization algorithm used in this paper.
【學位授予單位】：華東理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：TP183;F830.91

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本文編號：2014903