本文選題：創(chuàng)業(yè)板 + 新股破發(fā)　； 參考：《東華大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：我國(guó)股票市場(chǎng)自建立以來,新股申購一度被認(rèn)為是不存在實(shí)際風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的安全投資地帶,但2010年以來的破發(fā)現(xiàn)象打破了我國(guó)長(zhǎng)期以來新股發(fā)行的“潛規(guī)則”,即“三高”(高發(fā)行價(jià)、高市盈率、高比例超募資金)現(xiàn)象,其中尤以創(chuàng)業(yè)板最為凸顯。創(chuàng)業(yè)板在我國(guó)還是一個(gè)新興市場(chǎng),新股一股難求的現(xiàn)象是曾經(jīng)中國(guó)資本市場(chǎng)的特征之一,破發(fā),曾經(jīng)僅是一小概率事件,但現(xiàn)今創(chuàng)業(yè)板的“破發(fā)潮”讓打新者迷茫,讓炒新者困惑,無論哪種參與方式,被套牢都變成了大概率事件。 創(chuàng)業(yè)板是不同于主板和中小板的概念,中國(guó)創(chuàng)業(yè)板市場(chǎng)更是一個(gè)新興的市場(chǎng),不僅資本的存量比發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家成熟的金融市場(chǎng)小得多,而且股票的波動(dòng)性也大許多,市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)方面具有很多獨(dú)特的特征。與深圳主板、中小板相比,創(chuàng)業(yè)板首次公開發(fā)行必須具備的條件較低,公司規(guī)模小,但成長(zhǎng)性較強(qiáng)。同時(shí),創(chuàng)業(yè)板破發(fā)是市場(chǎng)各參與主體博弈的結(jié)果,其中市場(chǎng)行情及發(fā)行者、承銷商、投資者的決策都是影響新股上市是否破發(fā)的重要因素。 我國(guó)創(chuàng)業(yè)板從2009年10月30日首批28家企業(yè)掛牌創(chuàng)業(yè)板至2012年6月30日共上市332家企業(yè),共46家公司首日上市跌破上市發(fā)行價(jià),共76家公司首月上市跌破發(fā)行價(jià),總發(fā)行股本560.86億,其中流通股本212.51億,上市公司市價(jià)總值8532.67億元人民幣,其中流通市值3060.11億元人民幣,行業(yè)覆蓋包括制造業(yè),信息技術(shù)業(yè),交通運(yùn)輸、倉儲(chǔ)業(yè),傳播與文化產(chǎn)業(yè),批發(fā)和零售貿(mào)易業(yè),社會(huì)服務(wù)業(yè),農(nóng)、林、牧、漁業(yè)以及采掘業(yè)等。本文通過對(duì)創(chuàng)業(yè)板新股上市首月破發(fā)的影響因子及其影響程度進(jìn)行統(tǒng)計(jì)分析及多元回歸分析,得出：股票的限售股比例、大股東持股比例、超募比例與破發(fā)程度存在一定的負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系；首日換手率、發(fā)行市盈率、新股發(fā)行價(jià)、凈資產(chǎn)收益率(ROE)、資產(chǎn)收益率(ROA),與創(chuàng)業(yè)板新股破發(fā)程度呈現(xiàn)顯著的正相關(guān)關(guān)系；在我國(guó)創(chuàng)業(yè)板新股發(fā)行破發(fā)事件中,市場(chǎng)情緒(發(fā)行費(fèi)率、新股中簽率)、首發(fā)日滬深300的收盤價(jià)格與破發(fā)程度同樣存在影響的關(guān)系等結(jié)論,有效地彌補(bǔ)和完善現(xiàn)有創(chuàng)業(yè)板IPO定價(jià)理論與方法,幫助發(fā)行人有效地控制發(fā)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn),幫助承銷商降低承銷失敗的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),引導(dǎo)投資者理性投資,減少投資者的羊群效應(yīng)和盲從投機(jī),進(jìn)而提高投資收益率；引導(dǎo)有限的資源合理地在一、二級(jí)市場(chǎng)之間最優(yōu)化配置,消除大量資金集中在一級(jí)市場(chǎng)打新股所造成的二級(jí)市場(chǎng)資金短缺的“失血”現(xiàn)象,進(jìn)一步促進(jìn)證券市場(chǎng)的整體協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:Since the establishment of the stock market in China, the application for new shares was once regarded as a safe investment zone without actual risks. However, the break-up phenomenon since 2010 has broken the "hidden rules" of new stock issuance in China for a long time. That is, "three high" (high issue price, high price-earnings ratio, high proportion of funds raised) phenomenon, especially the gem most prominent. The gem is still an emerging market in China. The phenomenon that new shares are hard to obtain is one of the characteristics of China's capital market. Breaking hair was once only a small probability event, but now the "breaking tide" on the gem confuses new players. Let the new speculators confused, either way to participate, is trapped into a high probability event. The gem is different from the concept of the main board and the small and medium-sized board. The gem market of China is also a new market. Not only is the stock of capital much smaller than the mature financial market in developed countries, but also the volatility of stocks is much greater. Market volatility has many unique characteristics. Compared with Shenzhen main Board and small and medium Board, gem IPO must have lower conditions, small company size, but strong growth. At the same time, the gem break is the result of the game among the participants in the market, in which the market price, issuer, underwriter and investor's decision are all the important factors that affect whether the new stock market breaks or not. From the first batch of 28 enterprises listed on the gem on October 30, 2009 to June 30, 2012, there are 332 enterprises listed in the gem. A total of 46 companies fell below the IPO price on their first day of listing, and 76 companies fell below the IPO price in the first month. The total issued share capital is 56.086 billion, of which the outstanding share capital is 21.251 billion, and the market value of the listed company is 853.267 billion yuan, of which the circulating market value is 306.011 billion yuan. The industry covers manufacturing, information technology, transportation, warehousing, etc. Communication and culture, wholesale and retail trade, social services, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fisheries and extractive industries. Based on the statistical analysis and multiple regression analysis of the influencing factors and the degree of the breakage in the first month of gem new shares listing, this paper draws the following conclusions: the proportion of restricted stocks, the proportion of large shareholders holding shares, and the proportion of shares held by large shareholders. There is a negative correlation between overoffering ratio and breaking degree, the first day turnover ratio, price-earnings ratio, new issue price, net asset return rate (ROEO), asset return rate (ROA), and the breaking degree of new shares on the gem show a significant positive correlation. In China's gem IPO break incident, the market sentiment (the issuing rate, the success rate of the new shares, the closing price of the initial day, Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, and the breaking degree also have an impact on the relationship between the market sentiment and the breaking degree, and so on. Effectively make up and perfect the existing IPO pricing theory and method, help the issuer to control the issue risk effectively, help the underwriter to reduce the risk of underwriting failure, and guide investors to invest rationally. Reduce the herd effect of investors and blindly follow the speculation, and then increase the return on investment; guide the limited resources in the rational allocation between the primary and secondary markets, The phenomenon of "blood loss" caused by the shortage of capital in the secondary market caused by a large amount of funds concentrated in the primary market will be eliminated, and the overall coordinated development of the securities market will be further promoted.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：東華大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F832.51;F224

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