本文選題：商品住宅價格 + 供給　； 參考：《大連海事大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：本文來源于當(dāng)前的熱點話題房地產(chǎn)業(yè),具有現(xiàn)實的研究價值。近些年來,全 國一線城市商品住宅市場升溫,也引起二三線城市房價攀升,遠超過居民的同期 收入增長水平,而政府對房價的調(diào)控政策的接連出臺,也沒有壓下房價快速上漲 的勢頭。在這種情勢下,了解房價上漲的根本原因是至關(guān)重要的,本文正試圖在 這方面做一些有益的嘗試。此外,城市住宅價格是政府進行房地產(chǎn)調(diào)控的重點所 在。通過參考大量文獻,發(fā)現(xiàn)大多數(shù)研究都只從某一角度進行分析,注重某一因 素的變化對房價的影響,或只從理論上進行分析,得出的結(jié)論明顯缺乏說服力。本文的研究思路簡要且清晰。首先,從住宅價格、銷售量、房企投資、住宅 供需情況以及土地的價格和供需情況等主要方面分析了近年來我國住宅商品房 市場的現(xiàn)狀。然后,從經(jīng)濟學(xué)的經(jīng)典供求理論入手,通過數(shù)據(jù)表格,折線圖,流 程圖等來闡述導(dǎo)致房價變化的原因,包括分別影響供求兩端的主要因素和能夠同 時影響供求的主要因素。同時,結(jié)合2003-2012年北京、上海、深圳、廣州、 南京、沈陽、寧波等一二三線城市住宅市場相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù),分區(qū)域?qū)@些變量因素與 住宅價格的多元關(guān)系進行例證分析。研究結(jié)果表明：供給方面,成本的增加對房 價有推動作用,但不是主要因素；房價的上漲主要受土地供應(yīng)量和貸款額的影響。 土地供應(yīng)量與房價一般成正相關(guān),而貸款額越大,商品住宅市場就越繁榮。股價 主要通過貸款額來影響商品住宅銷售價格,但這個過程十分緩慢。和股價相同, 銀行拆借利率和貨幣供應(yīng)量也是通過影響貸款額進而影響房價。需求方面,住宅 剛性需求和投資性需求是房價上漲的兩個推動力,而造成需求增加的主因是年齡 結(jié)構(gòu),城市化率和居民人均可支配收入等。最后探討了國家宏觀調(diào)控政策對供給 和需求端的影響,主要研究了土地政策、貨幣政策及稅收政策的基本機理和傳導(dǎo) 機制,并重點對設(shè)計開征物業(yè)稅和建設(shè)國家保障性住房解決住房供需矛盾的有效 性提供了參考建議。現(xiàn)階段,要想徹底解決房價過高的問題,必須認(rèn)識到推動房價過高的根本原 因是其背后強大的需求群體。因此,政府的調(diào)控不應(yīng)僅僅局限于抑制投資性需求,一方面要保持現(xiàn)階段宏觀調(diào)控的力度,另一方面加大力度進行保障性住房的建 設(shè),解決根本的住宅性需求。
[Abstract]:This article comes from the current hot topic real estate industry, has the realistic research value. In recent years, The heating up of the commodity housing market in first-tier cities in China has also caused house prices to rise in second-and third-tier cities, far exceeding the number of residents in the same period. The level of income growth, and the government's regulation and control of housing prices, the introduction of successive policies, also did not suppress the rapid rise in house prices The momentum. In this context, it is essential to understand the root causes of the rise in house prices. Some useful attempts are made in this respect. In addition, urban housing prices are the focus of government real estate regulation and control In. By referring to a large number of documents, it is found that most of the studies are only analyzed from a certain angle and pay attention to a certain cause. The effect of the change of element on house price, or only theoretical analysis, the conclusion is obviously not convincing. The research idea of this paper is simple and clear. First, from the house price, the sales volume, the housing enterprise investment, the residence The supply and demand situation, land price and supply and demand situation are analyzed in recent years. The state of the market And then, starting with the classic supply and demand theory of economics, through the data table, the broken line diagram, the flow. To explain the causes of the change in house prices, including the main factors affecting both ends of supply and demand and the same When the main factors affecting supply and demand. At the same time, from 2003 to 2012, Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, The related data of residential market in Nanjing, Shenyang, Ningbo and so on. The multivariate relation of housing price carries on the example analysis. The results show that: on the supply side, the increase of the cost of housing Price is the driving force, but not the main factor; the rise in house prices is mainly influenced by the supply of land and the amount of loans. Land supply is generally positively correlated with house prices, and the larger the loan, the more prosperous the commodity housing market is. Stock price Mainly through the amount of loans to affect commodity residential sales prices, but this process is very slow. The same as the stock price, Bank lending rates and money supply also affect housing prices by influencing loan volumes. On the demand side, housing Rigid demand and investment demand are the two driving forces of house price increase, and age is the main reason for the increase in demand. Structure, urbanization rate and per capita disposable income. Finally, it discusses the supply of the national macro-control policy. And demand-side influence. The basic mechanism and transmission of land policy, monetary policy and tax policy are studied. Mechanism, and focus on the design of property tax and the construction of national affordable housing to solve the housing supply and demand contradictions effective Sex provides reference suggestions. At the present stage, if we want to solve the problem of excessive housing prices, we must realize the root cause of pushing prices too high. The reason is the strong demand group behind it. Therefore, government regulation should not be limited to the suppression of investment demand. On the one hand, it should maintain the strength of macro-control at the present stage, on the other hand, it should strengthen the construction of affordable housing. Set up to solve the fundamental housing needs.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：大連海事大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F299.233.5

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