本文選題：臺(tái)商直接投資 + 出口規(guī)模�。� 參考：《寧波大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著海峽兩岸關(guān)系逐步發(fā)展，特別是經(jīng)濟(jì)合作框架協(xié)議（ECFA）及投資保障協(xié)議等一系列合作協(xié)議的成功簽署和實(shí)施，臺(tái)商對(duì)大陸直接投資與兩岸雙邊貿(mào)易迅速發(fā)展，已進(jìn)入制度化與機(jī)制化階段。此間臺(tái)商直接投資不僅彌補(bǔ)了大陸建設(shè)資金不足，而且?guī)?lái)先進(jìn)生產(chǎn)技術(shù)與管理經(jīng)驗(yàn)，促進(jìn)大陸對(duì)臺(tái)及對(duì)外出口貿(mào)易增長(zhǎng)。新形勢(shì)下，分析、研究臺(tái)商直接投資的進(jìn)展，尤其是與大陸對(duì)臺(tái)出口貿(mào)易間的內(nèi)在聯(lián)系及其成因，，對(duì)縮小大陸對(duì)臺(tái)灣地區(qū)貿(mào)易逆差、推動(dòng)兩岸經(jīng)貿(mào)關(guān)系深化發(fā)展和區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化，無(wú)疑具有重要戰(zhàn)略與現(xiàn)實(shí)指導(dǎo)意義。 在簡(jiǎn)要梳理相關(guān)理論與實(shí)踐研究進(jìn)展基礎(chǔ)上，本文主要從規(guī)模與結(jié)構(gòu)兩個(gè)方面構(gòu)建外商直接投資的東道國(guó)出口效應(yīng)理論分析框架；進(jìn)而就臺(tái)商直接投資與大陸對(duì)臺(tái)出口貿(mào)易問(wèn)題進(jìn)行描述性統(tǒng)計(jì)分析，得出二者可能存在的相關(guān)關(guān)系；同時(shí)運(yùn)用協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)與誤差修正模型等計(jì)量方法，實(shí)證研究了臺(tái)商直接投資的大陸對(duì)臺(tái)出口規(guī)模與結(jié)構(gòu)效應(yīng)。在此基礎(chǔ)上，建立臺(tái)商直接投資的技術(shù)溢出效應(yīng)模型，分析臺(tái)商直接投資對(duì)大陸出口產(chǎn)生引致效應(yīng)的實(shí)質(zhì)；借鑒Manuel等（2005）總投資模型，分析臺(tái)商直接投資對(duì)大陸資本的擠入效應(yīng)。在計(jì)量方法上，以回歸分析為主，同時(shí)結(jié)合時(shí)間序列ADF檢驗(yàn)、Johansen協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)等多種檢驗(yàn)方法，使實(shí)證結(jié)論更加嚴(yán)謹(jǐn)準(zhǔn)確。 實(shí)證分析結(jié)果表明：臺(tái)商直接投資擴(kuò)大了大陸對(duì)臺(tái)出口規(guī)模，縮小了大陸對(duì)臺(tái)貿(mào)易逆差；同時(shí)優(yōu)化了大陸對(duì)臺(tái)出口結(jié)構(gòu)，臺(tái)商直接投資與初級(jí)制成品出口比重之間不存在協(xié)整關(guān)系，與資源密集型、低技術(shù)密集型、中技術(shù)密集型、高技術(shù)密集型產(chǎn)品出口比重的增加正相關(guān)，且對(duì)高技術(shù)密集型產(chǎn)品出口比重增加的促進(jìn)作用大于低、中技術(shù)密集型產(chǎn)品出口的促進(jìn)作用。深入分析臺(tái)商直接投資引致大陸對(duì)臺(tái)出口結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化原因，結(jié)果顯示：臺(tái)商直接投資存在正向技術(shù)溢出效應(yīng)，能夠提升大陸境內(nèi)企業(yè)技術(shù)水平，促進(jìn)對(duì)臺(tái)灣地區(qū)出口產(chǎn)品跨越非關(guān)稅壁壘；也存在資本擠入效應(yīng)，增加大陸境內(nèi)總資本積累，一定程度上改變大陸境內(nèi)要素結(jié)構(gòu)。最后，根據(jù)研究結(jié)論，提出了新形勢(shì)下利用臺(tái)資帶動(dòng)大陸對(duì)臺(tái)出口及進(jìn)一步優(yōu)化大陸對(duì)臺(tái)出口結(jié)構(gòu)的相應(yīng)對(duì)策建議。
[Abstract]:With the gradual development of cross-strait relations, especially the successful signing and implementation of a series of cooperation agreements, such as the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFAA) and the Investment guarantee Agreement, direct investment by Taiwan businessmen to the mainland and bilateral trade between the two sides have developed rapidly. It has entered the stage of institutionalization and institutionalization. Direct investment by Taiwanese businessmen not only makes up for the shortage of capital for construction in the mainland, but also brings advanced production technology and management experience, and promotes the growth of mainland's trade with Taiwan and its foreign exports. Under the new situation, this paper analyzes and studies the progress of direct investment by Taiwan businessmen, especially the internal relations and causes of the export trade with the mainland to Taiwan, so as to reduce the trade deficit between the mainland and Taiwan. It is undoubtedly of strategic and practical significance to promote the development of cross-strait economic and trade relations and regional economic integration. On the basis of briefly combing the research progress of relevant theory and practice, this paper constructs the theoretical analysis framework of host country's export effect of FDI from two aspects: scale and structure. Then, the paper makes a descriptive statistical analysis on the direct investment of Taiwan businessmen and the export trade of mainland China to Taiwan, and obtains the possible correlation between the two. At the same time, it uses the co-integration test and error correction model, etc. This paper empirically studies the scale and structure of mainland exports to Taiwan. On this basis, the technology spillover effect model of Taiwanese direct investment is established, and the essence of the effect of Taiwanese direct investment on mainland exports is analyzed, and the total investment model of Manuel et al. 2005) is used to analyze the crowding effect of Taiwanese direct investment on mainland capital. In terms of measurement methods, regression analysis is the main method and Johansen cointegration test is combined with time series ADF test to make the empirical conclusion more precise and accurate. The results of empirical analysis show that direct investment by Taiwan businessmen has enlarged the scale of mainland exports to Taiwan, reduced the mainland's trade deficit with Taiwan, and optimized the structure of mainland exports to Taiwan. There is no cointegration relationship between the direct investment of Taiwan businessmen and the proportion of primary manufactured goods exports, but it is positively related to the increase in the proportion of exports of resource-intensive, low-technology-intensive, medium-technology-intensive, and high-technology-intensive products. Moreover, the promotion effect on the export proportion of high technology intensive products is greater than that of low, and the promotion effect of medium technology intensive products is higher than that of medium technology intensive products. An in-depth analysis of the reasons for the optimization of the mainland's export structure resulting from Taiwan's direct investment shows that there is a positive technology spillover effect on Taiwan's direct investment, which can enhance the technology level of mainland enterprises. To promote exports to Taiwan across non-tariff barriers, there is also the effect of capital crowding in, increasing the total capital accumulation in the mainland, and to a certain extent changing the structure of the elements in the mainland. Finally, according to the conclusion of the research, the paper puts forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions of using Taiwan capital to promote mainland's export to Taiwan and to further optimize the structure of mainland's export to Taiwan under the new situation.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：寧波大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F127

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