本文選題：估值理論　切入點(diǎn)：現(xiàn)金流貼現(xiàn)模型　出處：《湘潭大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著我國資本市場的發(fā)展和完善，人們對股票投資逐漸趨于理性，價(jià)值投資這一理念被越來越多的人所接受和重視，如何對股票價(jià)值進(jìn)行正確評估成為人們所關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn)。股票估值理論起源于西方，在2000年傳入我國，盡管該理論已發(fā)展的足夠成熟并且在西方資本市場廣泛應(yīng)用，但由于我國資本市場的特殊性，，這些在西方成熟資本市場適用的估值理論和模型在我國資本市場并不一定有效。國內(nèi)大量學(xué)者對這方面展開了深入的分析和研究，并在原來的基礎(chǔ)上進(jìn)行了拓展，取得了豐碩的研究成果。目前常用的股票估值模型大致可分為絕對估值模型與相對估值模型兩大類。其中，絕對估值模型主要包括股利貼現(xiàn)模型，自由現(xiàn)金流貼現(xiàn)模型，剩余收益模型和B-S期權(quán)定價(jià)模型，相對估值法主要包括市盈率模型、市凈率模型和FEG模型等。 本文旨在于建立一個(gè)全新的股票價(jià)值評估模型，以期對股票進(jìn)行更好的估值。圍繞這個(gè)中心點(diǎn)，本文首先對研究背景和意義進(jìn)行了闡述，為后文的展開做了鋪墊，接著梳理了股利貼現(xiàn)模型、自由現(xiàn)金流貼現(xiàn)模型和剩余收益模型相關(guān)國內(nèi)外文獻(xiàn)，然后對本文的理論基礎(chǔ)做了詳細(xì)介紹和解說，接下來是模型的構(gòu)建過程和研究假設(shè)的提出，對相關(guān)變量做了統(tǒng)計(jì)性描述和初步檢驗(yàn)（z檢驗(yàn)和t檢驗(yàn)），再運(yùn)用計(jì)量軟件stata回歸，并對實(shí)證結(jié)果進(jìn)行研究分析，得到如下結(jié)論：凈資產(chǎn)收益率越高，公司規(guī)模越大，股票價(jià)格越高；會計(jì)信息質(zhì)量和會計(jì)盈余持續(xù)性對股價(jià)有很大影響；在對股票價(jià)值進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析時(shí)應(yīng)該考慮引入時(shí)間趨勢變量，消除年度差別對股價(jià)的影響。最后一部分是對本文的總結(jié)，并對此次實(shí)證研究的創(chuàng)新、不足之處做了簡單的評價(jià)，探討了未來的研究方向。
[Abstract]:With the development and perfection of our country's capital market, people tend to be rational in stock investment, and the concept of value investment is accepted and valued by more and more people. How to correctly evaluate the stock value has become the focus of people's attention.The theory of stock valuation originated in the West and was introduced into China in 2000. Although the theory has been developed and widely used in western capital markets, but because of the particularity of China's capital market,These valuation theories and models used in western mature capital markets are not necessarily effective in Chinese capital markets.A large number of domestic scholars have carried out in-depth analysis and research on this aspect, and expanded on the basis of the original, and obtained fruitful research results.Stock valuation models commonly used at present can be divided into absolute valuation model and relative valuation model.Among them, the absolute valuation model mainly includes dividend discount model, free cash flow discount model, residual income model and B-S option pricing model. The relative valuation method mainly includes price-earnings ratio model, price-to-book ratio model and FEG model.The purpose of this paper is to establish a new valuation model for stock valuation.Focusing on this central point, this paper firstly expounds the background and significance of the research, and lays the groundwork for the later development, then combing the discount model of dividend, the discount model of free cash flow and the model of residual income, which is related to domestic and foreign literature.Then the theoretical basis of this paper is introduced and explained in detail. Then the process of model construction and the research hypothesis are put forward. The statistical description and preliminary test of relevant variables and t test are done, and then the stata regression software is used.The empirical results are analyzed as follows: the higher the return on net assets, the larger the size of the company, the higher the stock price, the greater the quality of accounting information and the persistence of accounting earnings have a great impact on the stock price.In the empirical analysis of stock value, we should introduce time trend variable to eliminate the influence of annual difference on stock price.The last part is a summary of this paper, and the innovation of this empirical study, shortcomings of a simple evaluation, discussed the future direction of research.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湘潭大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F830.42;F832.51

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