本文選題：早秈稻　切入點(diǎn)：價(jià)格發(fā)現(xiàn)　出處：《湖南大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：早秈稻期貨市場(chǎng)是農(nóng)產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)上的重要組成部分,早秈稻期貨于2009年4月才在鄭州商品交易所上市,因此對(duì)于早秈稻期貨的研究是處于一個(gè)比較空白的領(lǐng)域,本文在現(xiàn)有文獻(xiàn)的基礎(chǔ)上,挖掘現(xiàn)有的早秈稻期貨的數(shù)據(jù),探討早秈稻期貨合約在價(jià)格發(fā)現(xiàn)和套期保值功能方面是否能夠起到積極作用,也可以確定早秈稻期貨在農(nóng)產(chǎn)品期貨市場(chǎng)中占據(jù)的重要地位。 本文首先對(duì)早秈稻期貨市場(chǎng)價(jià)格發(fā)現(xiàn)功能和套期保值功能做了分析。其次,分析了期貨市場(chǎng)套期保值功能中的基差分析和套期保值績(jī)效分析法,并且結(jié)合最近合約的交易量分析,可以完整地闡述早秈稻期貨的套期保值功能。然后,分別就相關(guān)性檢驗(yàn)、單位根檢驗(yàn)、協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)、格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)、基差分析、套期保值功能績(jī)效分析、交易量分析等對(duì)我國(guó)早秈稻期貨合約進(jìn)行了價(jià)格發(fā)現(xiàn)和套期保值功能的實(shí)證研究,結(jié)果表明,我國(guó)早秈稻期貨市場(chǎng)具備較強(qiáng)的價(jià)格發(fā)現(xiàn)和套期保值的功能。 在得出我國(guó)早秈稻期貨市場(chǎng)價(jià)格發(fā)現(xiàn)和套期保值功能較強(qiáng)的結(jié)論后,分析了作為農(nóng)產(chǎn)品期貨市場(chǎng)中的主力糧食儲(chǔ)備企業(yè)在期貨市場(chǎng)中運(yùn)用價(jià)格發(fā)現(xiàn)功能和套期保值功能的具體過(guò)程中,從中可以發(fā)現(xiàn)只要在進(jìn)行期貨交易同時(shí)關(guān)注現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格波動(dòng),可以取得良好的效果。最后,提出了幾點(diǎn)政策性建議,包括期貨知識(shí)的普及、農(nóng)業(yè)合作組織的發(fā)展與支持、期貨市場(chǎng)的創(chuàng)新與完善、農(nóng)業(yè)信息服務(wù)體系的完善和農(nóng)村金融機(jī)構(gòu)的支持等。以達(dá)到早秈稻期貨市場(chǎng)能夠在最大程度上保證現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格的穩(wěn)定,也是關(guān)系到國(guó)計(jì)民生的重大舉措。
[Abstract]:The early indica rice futures market is an important part of the agricultural product market. The early indica rice futures were listed on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange in April 2009, so the research on the early indica rice futures is in a relatively blank field. Based on the existing literature, this paper excavates the existing data of early indica rice futures, and discusses whether early indica rice futures contracts can play an active role in price discovery and hedging. It is also possible to determine the important position of early indica rice futures in agricultural futures market. This paper first analyzes the price discovery function and hedging function of early indica rice futures market. Secondly, it analyzes the basis analysis and hedging performance analysis of futures market hedging function. The hedging function of early indica rice futures can be fully explained by analyzing the transaction volume of recent contracts. Then, the correlation test, unit root test, cointegration test, Granger causality test, basis analysis, respectively. An empirical study on the price discovery and hedging function of early indica rice futures contracts in China is carried out through the performance analysis of hedging function and trading volume analysis. The results show that the price discovery and hedging functions of early indica rice futures contracts in China are analyzed. China's early indica rice futures market has a strong function of price discovery and hedging. After drawing the conclusion that the price discovery and hedging function of early indica rice futures market in China is relatively strong, This paper analyzes the concrete process of using price discovery function and hedging function in the futures market as the main grain reserve enterprise in the agricultural product futures market. It can be found that as long as the futures trade is concerned with the spot price fluctuation at the same time, Finally, several policy suggestions are put forward, including the popularization of futures knowledge, the development and support of agricultural cooperation organizations, the innovation and improvement of futures markets, The improvement of agricultural information service system and the support of rural financial institutions to achieve the early indica rice futures market to the greatest extent to ensure the stability of spot prices is also a major measure related to the national economy and people's livelihood.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湖南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F724.5;F224

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